Ringiana

@CatNyanpital The Law of Large Numbers (LLN).

It’s remarkable how smooth the curve is downwards

@_inyourside__ Koreans have 0% tax on stock gains. It's an incredible deal. The whole country was asleep for decades on that, finally they've woken up. Forward kospi p/e still very low.

【やば】韓国の若者、年利7.5%で借金して株買ってて草ｗｗ 信用取引残高が1年で倍増・3兆円超えって「借金投資が国民スポーツになってる」案件やばすぎｗ 韓国「빚투（ビットゥ）＝借金投資」ブームまとめると、 ・個人が証券会社から借り入れる信用取引融資の残高が3兆円超・1年前から倍増。一時34〜36兆ウォンで過去最高を更新する場面もあり、もう笑えないレベル ・2026年5月4日時点で稼働中の株式口座数が1億522万口座。韓国の総人口約5,100万人の約2倍に相当し、多くの国民が複数口座を保有しているという事実が全てを物語ってる件 ・貸出金利は年7.5%程度でも借り手が後を絶たず、新規取引を制限する証券会社まで出てきてて草。「7.5%の金利払ってでも株で勝てる自信がある」の強メンタル 【小まとめ】 KOSPIが爆上がりしてる間は「天才投資家」だけど、下がった瞬間に全員地獄行きという典型的なレバレッジ祭り 【なぜここまで過熱したのか：3つの社会的絶望から来てる】 ①家が買えない絶望→「株で一発逆転」 ・住宅価格の高騰で家を買えない・家賃負担が重い状況が続いており、共働きでも住宅取得が厳しく「株で一発逆転」を狙う心理が働く ・「真面目に働いて貯金しても家が買えない」→「だったら借金してでも株に賭けるしかない」の論理、日本でも他人事じゃない件 ②年金が2055年に枯渇予定→「自分で老後を作るしかない」 ・韓国は世界最速級の少子高齢化で、国民年金の積立金は2041年頃に赤字転換、2055年頃に枯渇する可能性が高いと試算されている ・「国に頼ったら詰む」という合理的絶望感が、20代から60代まで全年代を投機に向かわせてる。「年金不安が投資ブームの燃料になってる」という皮肉な構図 ③就職難・格差拡大→FOMO（乗り遅れ不安）が爆発 ・非正規雇用増加・格差拡大で「真面目に働いても上向かない」感覚が蔓延。AI・半導体ブームでKOSPIが爆騰したことでFOMO（乗り遅れ不安）が借金投資をさらに加速させた ・「隣の同僚がSKハイニックスで大儲けしてる」→「俺も借りてでも乗る」の連鎖反応 【KOSPIの実態：上がり方がバグってた】 ・KOSPIは2026年の最初の2ヶ月で26%上昇という異常ペース。AIバブル・半導体需要・政府の株式市場改革が重なって「何もかもが追い風だった時期」 ・史上初めて取引時間中に8,000ポイントを突破したものの、午後に外国人・機関投資家による利益確定売りが殺到し、同日中に6%超急落・7,400台まで押し戻されるというジェットコースター展開が発生 ・アナリストは現在のバリュエーションが予想利益の約9倍、AIチップ需要が続けばKOSPIは1万ポイントへ、需要が失速すれば4,500ポイントまで下落の可能性という2倍以上の振れ幅予測。「博打場としての韓国株式市場」が完全に確立した件 【爆弾が爆発する時：強制売却の連鎖】 ・株価が下がると証券会社が担保割れ投資家の株を強制売却（反対売買）→さらに株価が下がる→次の投資家が強制売却→…の悪循環 ・韓国取引所は若年層の借金投資増加で「連鎖的下落リスク」を繰り返し警告してる。「警告してるけど止められない」行政の無力感よ ・特に60代以上の高齢層の信用融資残高が2025年初め比2.25倍に急増。「老後資金を失うと取り返しがつかない層」がハイリスク投機にいるのが最も深刻な問題 ・家計債務がすでに高水準で、借金投資失敗が消費低迷・金融不安を招き景気悪化を増幅する恐れ。「個人の投機が国家経済リスクになる」という意味で「アキレス腱」と呼ばれる理由 【結論】「家が買えない・年金が消える・格差が埋まらないという3重苦の絶望感が、年利7.5%の借金をしてでもKOSPI8,000を追いかける国民的投機ブームを生み出した韓国の件」です。上がってる間は英雄、下がった瞬間に国家的危機になるタイムボムが今もカウントダウン中📉🇰🇷 > ⚠️ 注記: 投資判断の参考情報ではなく社会現象の解説です。最新動向は日経・ロイター等の信頼できる金融ニュースでご確認ください。

@MoatOwl Feels a bit late to the party:

For 50 years, Samyang Foods $003230.KS was Korea's perpetual #2 in instant noodles. Then one product changed everything. In 2024, this $6.7B South Korean company out-earned Nongshim in operating profit, on half the revenue. (1/10)

@dirtygreenpaper Means DCF model for Anthropic gives thrice the number of that for Alibaba.

$baba How can Anthropic be worth 3x more than Alibaba. Both are AI companies.

@CacheThatCheque US needs more guns.

Europoors used to dominate the world but now they’re dying because of no AC

@hamptonism The guy inserts at least two "like" in each of his sentences, at the level of dumb middle- and high-schoolers. I doubt he's capable of building sophisticated software, such as for HF trading.

Just a friendly reminder - these are the quants you’re competing against.

@DirtyCheapStock Someone pointed out that TAM is infinite for SpaceX, justifying that valuation.

The SpaceX IPO is the best way to understand how human stupidity works in financial markets. The Market Cap will be around $2 Trillion USD with only $18 Billion in Revenue and no profit, again, no profit. These AI and Space exploration narratives inflate prices in ridiculous ways. But trust me, the market is efficient.

@ThinkFinance999 @the_white_tig3r @IBKR Similar problem in the US, not just Europe. Must be SK's rules for foreigners holding KRW in brokerage accounts. LLM explained one solution to me.

@the_white_tig3r @IBKR Typically, no. You might exceeding the number of KRW you need to buy, and if you're in Europe, new stupid regulation (for which Europe is famous) won't let you buy even 1 KRW in excess if you have any margin anywhere. Reduce how many KRW you're buying and try again.

I bought a Korean stock today via IBKR 👍. How does the currency settlement work? My account shows a negative KRW balance (margin account) after the purchase, but IBKR won’t let me convert my USD/EUR to KRW to close it. Does @IBKR auto-handle the FX conversion?

The Japanese eat very little fat and suffer fewer heart attacks than the British or Americans... The French eat a lot of fat and also suffer fewer heart attacks than the British or Americans. The Japanese drink very little red wine and suffer fewer heart attacks than the British or Americans. The Italians drink excessive amounts of red wine and also suffer fewer heart attacks than the British or Americans. The Germans drink a lot of beers and eat lots of sausages and fats and suffer fewer heart attacks than the British or Americans. Conclusion: Eat and drink what you like. Speaking English is apparently what kills you.

They want you to believe that this guy brought tens of thousands of people out of the woodworks to vote for him, oh and he got 10.8k mail in votes which were all for him. Massie lost by 10.2k votes.

@Tesla_Teslaway I'll take stock in a growing company with a reasonable P/E over life insurance anytime.

"주식 열풍에 생명보험도 깨서 투자하는 한국인들" 최근 코스피 지수가 사상 최고치를 경신하는 등 주시 시장이 폭발적으로 랠리를 이어가자, 많은 사람들이 손해를 감수하면서까지 기존의 안정적인 예금과 보험을 해지하고 주식 시장으로 돈을 옮기고 있음 1. 보험 해약 급증 현황: 올해 1분기 국내 3대 생명보험사(삼성·한화·교보)의 해약환급금은 총 4.9조 원(전년 동기 대비 16.3% 증가)에 달함 특히 저축성 보험 타격: 만기 시 원금과 이자를 받는 '저축성 보험'의 해약환급금이 23.2% 급증 이는 손해를 보더라도 주식으로 더 높은 수익을 올리겠다는 심리가 반영된 결과 이 여파로 신한라이프(-40%), KB라이프(-8%) 등 보험사 순이익은 감소한 반면, 신한투자증권(2배 이상 증가), KB증권(+93%) 등 증권사 실적은 폭증 2. 은행 예금의 급격한 유출 저축은행 잔액 최저치: 저축은행의 1년 만기 정기예금 평균 금리가 연 3.24%까지 올랐음에도 불구하고, 전체 예금 잔액은 약 97.9조 원으로 4년 4개월 만에 최저치를 기록 시중은행도 이탈 시작: 5대 시중은행(국민·신한·하나·우리·농협)의 정기예금 잔액 역시 지난 2월 말 947조 원에서 5월 초 935조 원으로, 두 달 만에 약 12조 원이 증발했음 결론 > 코스피 지수가 7,800선까지 치솟는 역대급 호황을 보이자, 포모를 느낀 개인 투자자들이 대거 자금을 빼내어 주식 시장으로 뛰어들고 있는 상황

@IcariaCap I bet we can find a couple more anchors if we look around. Good for Japan to get out of their deflation.

El bono japonés a 30 años en 4,14%. En 2022 estaba en 0,6%. Esto no es una subida es la ruptura del último ancla del sistema financiero global. El carry trade global lleva décadas montado encima de esta línea. Y la línea acaba de hacer 7x. ¿Qué activo crees que se resiente primero?

@oguzerkan It's a gift from the market, buy more of $NU.

Can someone explain how $NU deserves to trade at just 13x forward earnings while growing 40% YoY and planning to enter the US market next year?

I heard doordash was stealing tips from their drivers so out of curiosity, I asked the woman who dropped off my tacos how much it's showing that I tipped her; she said $5. I showed her my phone where I tipped $20 (bc the taco place was busy and she waited for my order). 😐

@wine_x13 In a casino you're only allowed to lose money due to the law of large numbers.

Yesterday my daughter and I went to the casino. At a point she had one of the vouchers for $75. She dropped it, Realized what she had done and went to the cashier and asked if anyone had turned it in. They grabbed a laptop and using her player card tracked the ticket from where she was playing, who picked it up, where it was cashed and managed to find the person and gave them the option of giving back the money or being banned for life and charged with robbery. She got her money back.

@LucaAmb Time to create an arXiv competitor which is less strict on that. If caught LLMing, you can buy back into arxiving for a reasonable fee (which becomes public knowledge).

A lifetime arxiv ban (arxiving after pubs is meaningless) can completely wreck someone career Doing that for a single slip unconsequential slip on an otherwise good paper is completely reckless Society is changing fast, we need to support people. Not punish them.

@ecommerceshares Instead, add a filter to delete exactly those stocks from your screener.

Looking at these quarterly fund filings for investing ideas is like looking in the rear view mirror while trying to predict where the road is going. Definitely won’t make you wealthier.

@DataChaz Instead of firing 22K folks, create 220 spin-off startups, seed each with 100 workers and a modest amount of initial capital. Grant stock options for each spin-off and let each of them fly.

🚨 Mark Zuckerberg addresses the 22,000 laid-off workers

@qcapital2020 Easy, if the real inflation is 8%+.

How the fuck can oil be up +82% YTD while simultaneously the stock market is at all time highs and the 30Y Treasuries are above 5% One of you mf’ers is wrong

Cancer-causing toxins found in America's favorite strawberry brand, alarming tests reveal