RoadStress

Imagine that the 2/5 crash just happened for no apparent reason. The implications are huge and very bullish. Everyone is theorizing about some HK entity that blew up, but it’s unlikely it would be kept so well hidden. I’d likely have heard about it by now. If @dgt10011 is right, and 2/5 was really for no singular reason, it means we are definitely in uncharted waters. Bitcoin is indeed now deeply integrated with traditional financial markets. ETF volumes dwarf that of the crypto exchanges. Multi-asset de-risking amplified by reflexive derivatives dynamics can lead to a downside gamma squeeze. The fundamental market structure for Bitcoin has changed now. Cycle theory is out the window. Using past patterns and indicators to predict is useless. Bitcoin is in a totally new game. So what does that mean? Are we going up or down? No one knows for certain. Bear posting at the bottom has been a thing since the dawn of capital markets. It’s just how human psychology works. When things are bad, everyone thinks it will get worse. I’m of the opinion that we’ve already bottomed (but I’m a permabull so it’s to be expected). 2/5 was a 6 sigma event (ask AI what that means if you don’t know). You could call it a black swan. Moving down to $58k from here in a single day would be yet another 6 sigma event. Not that likely. Is it possible to slowly grind lower? Anything is possible, but it’s just not likely. You need to have a reason for a slow grind down. There were no reasons for 2/5 happening and there are no reasons for a slow grind down. In fact, all I see is a lot of demand. ➡️ Treasury companies, already price insensitive, will buy to lower their average costs ➡️ New treasury companies will soon be operational and start to accumulate (BSTR, XXI) ➡️ Increasing involvement from big finance and major banks ➡️ US admin positioning to be a Bitcoin superpower with multiple pieces of legislation at various stages ➡️ We’ve yet to see real movement on the SBR, but the EO exists and the option for budget neutral accumulation is always on the table ➡️ If we at @JAN3com are successful, one of the nation-states we’ve engaged with will launch a Bitcoin Bond this year - think Strategy but with sovereign debt ➡️ The run up in metals shows unyielding demand for hard assets and we have yet to see metal investors rotate into Bitcoin - but it will soon Quoting @saylor: "We have the most constructive set of financial regulators in the history of the industry right now. The head of the Fed, the head of the Treasury, the head of the CFTC, the head of the SEC, and the White House has a digital assets czar. Those five things are massive bull flags." The reality of the new market structure for Bitcoin is that there’s a great deal of institutional and treasury co capital that will deploy - but it takes them time to aggregate and position for accumulation. A slow grind down, or even just going sideways, will give them ample time to buy up all coins for sale. Institutional accumulation often happens in lulls. Sideways gives players like pension funds and sovereigns cover to stack without FOMO bidding wars. So, going back to Jeff’s post, I agree that when the upside gamma squeeze comes, it will be fantastic. And it can happen at any time, for no obvious reason. This is the Omega Candle. ♎️ Plan accordingly.

@personalityson New lows but zero capitulation so far! Absolute insanity! Think we will need a mega capitulation wick to the downside if we truly want to print a short term bottom. Even am surprised.

$BTC Brushing the dust off my analogue forecasters: imgur.com/a/F12Grhh Feels like the top is monotonously 2 months away. Forever.