Roane

The terms "AI wrapper" and "vibe coding" are so self-deprecating that their impact on the next few years is completely missed by the majority. I've never been more convinced that there will be $1B 3 person cos.

@SimoneSyed you mean not enough risk appetite? or something else?

Whole lotta people appear to want to run PE firms and hedge funds instead of running VC firms and it shows in how much we actually have to catch up in manufacturing and biotech in this country Retvrn to real VC or America will be left behind 🇺🇸🦅🔥

🚨 CRITICAL: Active supply chain attack on axios -- one of npm's most depended-on packages. The latest axios@1.14.1 now pulls in plain-crypto-js@4.2.1, a package that did not exist before today. This is a live compromise. This is textbook supply chain installer malware. axios has 100M+ weekly downloads. Every npm install pulling the latest version is potentially compromised right now. Socket AI analysis confirms this is malware. plain-crypto-js is an obfuscated dropper/loader that: • Deobfuscates embedded payloads and operational strings at runtime • Dynamically loads fs, os, and execSync to evade static analysis • Executes decoded shell commands • Stages and copies payload files into OS temp and Windows ProgramData directories • Deletes and renames artifacts post-execution to destroy forensic evidence If you use axios, pin your version immediately and audit your lockfiles. Do not upgrade.

@BlacklionCTA Invest in drones

WTF does the most powerful country on earth have to 'make a deal' with terrorists to open a choke point we've controlled for decades!?

@HayekAndKeynes you can just do things

Update on the talks that aren’t happening

@HayekAndKeynes If Western voters can't get behind finishing this, Taiwan is in trouble and will need to rapidly arm up

Trump needs to walk away now. Mission was to destroy nuke capacity and end funding of regional terrorism ✅ World doesn’t want to touch the straight of Hormuz. They will figure out it’s their problem now. It will take care of itself.

@eastdakota he's going to cut the dividend next (hopefully)

@Merridew__ Seems right unless somehow regime is toppled and replaced w something better + better relations w neighbors after this... That feels like next to 0% chance of happening tho

@Merridew__ not just oil; power is doing well ytd and unlike oil many of these ran hard last year: CCJ, UUUU, BWXT, GEV, CW, SLB

@toddsaunders retardmaxxing, as they say @pmarca

I know Silicon Valley startups don't want to hear this..... But the combination of someone in the trades with deep domain expertise and Claude Code will run circles around your generic software. I talked to Cory LaChance this morning, a mechanical engineer in industrial piping construction in Houston. He normally works with chemical plants and refineries, but now he also works with the terminal He reached out in a DM a few days ago and I was so fired up by his story, I asked him if we could record the conversation and share it. He built a full application that industrial contractors are using every day. It reads piping isometric drawings and automatically extracts every weld count, every material spec, every commodity code. Work that took 10 minutes per drawing now takes 60 seconds. It can do 100 drawings in five minutes, saving days of time. His co-workers are all mind blown, and when he talks to them, it's like they are speaking different languages. His fabrication shop uses it daily, and he built the entire thing in 8 weeks. During those 8 weeks he also had to learn everything about Claude Code, the terminal, VS Code, everything. My favorite quote from him was when he said, "I literally did this with zero outside help other than the AI. My favorite tools are screenshots, step by step instructions and asking Claude to explain things like I'm five." Every trades worker with deep expertise and a willingness to sit down with Claude Code for a few weekends is now a potential software founder. I can't wait to meet more people like Cory.

@eastdakota @mcspacface @vailmtn Count me in for the hostile takeover

@mcspacface @vailmtn I’ll put $500M into lift infrastructure, including realignments. Restaurants on mountain should have character. More like Europe, less like McDonalds.

I appreciate @vailmtn hosting their investor/analyst dinner in a building I co-own. Thanks for the rent! I requested an invite and am a +1 for several guests. We’ll see how open they are to change.

@Brad_Setser If there were ever a case for tariffs...

Trying to get the folks who matter to care about industrial scale tax avoidance by US multinationals ...

@DerivativesDon @Brad_Setser When you say buy, you mean nationalize?

@Brad_Setser Solution is to just buy the companies. If they want to avoid the tax you just make the ownership and taxing authority explicit. Drastic, but so is implicit tax avoidance.

@leggett_john Centrus missing the boat potentially. But also perhaps the timeline is so far out that there's plenty more boats. Feedstock can come online faster than General Matters enrichment right? Have they said what tech they're using?

Wow😳 $4.2B deal to buy enriched #Uranium from General Matter. Where will the feedstock come from? #Nuclear.

@jackimaniel @semaforben hard for me to justify why they would store missiles/drones for later bombardment. They've had 3+ rounds of leadership assassinated. It's got to feel like now or never, right?

I’m going to engage with the article on the facts. Where Seloom is right, he’s right. The missile volume decline is true and documented. Day 1 saw roughly 350 ballistic launches. By Day 14 that was down to 10 to 25. Hezbollah is genuinely weaker than at any point since 2006. His point about proxy pre-delegation being a sign of command fragmentation rather than expanding strength is analytically sound and underreported. And his framing of the Strait closure as Iran’s “wasting asset” has real merit. Beijing cannot receive Iranian oil while the Strait stays shut, which means Iran is simultaneously strangling its own revenue stream and alienating its most important diplomatic shield, although there were reports some tankers were going through to China. But his central claim that Iran’s missile arsenal is “collapsing in real time” and being “dismantled in days” runs directly into Bloomberg’s March 12 report, which cited Israeli and Western intelligence confirming that launcher counts held largely steady after a full week of strikes. IDF officials claimed roughly two-thirds destroyed, but that figure was essentially unchanged from the 60 percent reported the prior week. The attrition rate on launchers had stalled. Mobile systems across Iran’s vast territory, in partially contested airspace, are extraordinarily hard to find and kill at scale. This is not a footnote. It is a structural problem for his core argument. There is also something he doesn’t adequately address. The IRGC spokesperson confirmed publicly on March 16 that the missiles fired so far are from “a decade ago” and that Iran has not yet deployed systems produced since the June 2025 war. If accurate, the volume decline Seloom is measuring may reflect deliberate conservation of newer assets, not the depletion he describes. The briefing record confirms this. Mousavi publicly announced a reconnaissance phase early in the war, deliberately reducing tempo to map coalition air defense signatures before shifting to heavier systems. That is not a force managing decline. That is a force managing sequencing. His nuclear argument also requires precision. Natanz sustained confirmed damage. But the 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium remains unaccounted for and unverified in location. The IAEA had not confirmed the stockpile’s whereabouts for over eight months before the war began. Isfahan tunnel entrances were backfilled before the campaign started. The Arms Control Association noted plainly that it is not even clear the US knows where all the uranium is. Seloom acknowledges this risk then treats infrastructure damage as the strategic win. The infrastructure is the delivery system. The material is the threat. Destroying one does not resolve the other. His strongest argument is the counterfactual he gestures at but never fully develops. The pre-war baseline was Iran weeks from weapons-grade enrichment threshold, proxies intact from Yemen to Lebanon, Hormuz closure held in permanent reserve as geopolitical leverage. That specific threat environment cannot return without years of reconstruction. That is a genuine strategic change. But a strategy can be working tactically while storing up strategic failure simultaneously. The uranium is still in Iran. Mojtaba Khamenei’s shaky legitimacy has arguably been rescued by foreign bombardment of Iranian cities. And Iran’s case for nuclear deterrence in the next decade has been strengthened, not weakened, by demonstrating what happens to states that don’t have one. Seloom measures success in destroyed launchers and suppressed command networks. Those are real gains. The outstanding liabilities are measured in what remains unresolved. The historical record of American military campaigns in this region is, in large part, the record of winning the tactical ledger while the strategic bill comes due years later. He is right that critics are measuring the wrong things. He is also measuring incomplete things.

Most convincing argument I've read recently that the Pentagon knows what it's doing, from ... Al Jazeera aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/…

@stevehou it's like the Martingale strategy 🎲🎲

Not my base case (not that I should ever have one since I know nothing about this). I still think the war is likely an unmitigated disaster and the longer it drags on the worse it gets, but I’m just looking for glimmers of hope for how this might go right…

@TexasOncologist @BlacklionCTA Hmm interesting. That feels like such an obvious self own, hopefully no one thinks that's a strategy... Maybe I'm naive..

@RoaneDraths @BlacklionCTA Indiscriminately firebombing without regard to civilian casualties Air and naval superiority make that easy, but it’s effectively a war crime in this era I don’t think any of this happens but you don’t need nukes (Brent is the expert, though)

At what level of energy prices or after how long of Iran harassing the Straits does the negative perception of using non-conventional weapons become less severe than the economic impact of not doing so?

@BlacklionCTA Assuming US destroys most launchers after they fire, then Iran best strategy is to fire a minimum per day, enough to keep ships stalled. Maximizes duration of market melt down. Feels like equilibrium. Min damage and max duration. Wouldnt that decrease US ability to escalate?

@TexasOncologist @BlacklionCTA Like what?

@BlacklionCTA I take the other side of this with all due respect but definitely not something that occurred to me I think far more likely is crossing lines in conventional warfare that the West hasn’t done since WWII

@Merridew__ Why would you do that when you can take it peacefully thru upcoming elections a la Hong Kong 2019

@timurkuran So is this a preference cascade or something else?

Before the bombing started, most of these people wanted regime change. Now, they have bigger worries.