

RonPaulBot1234
14.4K posts

@RonPaulBot1234
Putative*( Shareholder+Ceo+CMO+board chairman of #IonicDigital ) predicted & short FTX✌️ + a lot of other stuff. Fighting for Retail Investors! 🇵🇹🇪🇺🇺🇳






I am the Director of Market Integrity at Polymarket. We are the largest prediction market on the planet. Valued at nine billion dollars. My job is to ensure our markets accurately reflect reality. Our traders bet on elections, wars, pandemics, interest rates, and whether specific people will be alive next Tuesday. Each bet has resolution criteria. Resolution criteria are the rules that determine who wins the money. I wrote most of them. The rules are simple. A missile either landed or it didn't. An official is either dead or isn't. We aggregate sources. We verify. We resolve. The market has spoken. On March 10th, a military correspondent published a report about an Iranian ballistic missile striking an open area near Beit Shemesh, Israel. Five hundred meters from homes. His report cited the Israeli military and showed video of a massive explosion. Fourteen million dollars had been wagered on whether Iran would strike Israel that day. Our resolution clause states that intercepted missiles do not count. Only direct strikes count. The traders who bet "No" had a problem. The missile was not intercepted. The journalist's video showed hundreds of kilograms of warhead detonating on impact. That is not a fragment. They did not contact our support team. They contacted the journalist. The first emails were polite. They asked him to change the word "impact" to "interceptor debris." They told him the municipality had corrected its report. The municipality had not corrected its report. That's outreach. The next emails were insistent. "I have an urgent request regarding the accuracy of your report. If you could correct this tonight, you would be doing me and many others a great favor." That's escalation. Then someone fabricated a screenshot. The screenshot showed the journalist's email exchange with a bettor. In the fabricated version, the journalist had agreed to change his article. He had written no such thing. They circulated the forgery on X. That's evidence management. Then a bettor contacted a colleague at another news outlet. He asked the colleague to pressure the journalist into changing his report. He offered the colleague a percentage of his Polymarket winnings if he succeeded. That's stakeholder alignment. The market has spoken. I filed a report with our Trust and Safety team. Our Trust and Safety team has four people. Our platform processes fourteen million dollars in wagers on a single day's event. The ratio is intentional. We are a lean organization. Trust and Safety is a cost center. Cost centers get four people. Trust and Safety reviewed the messages. They determined the messages did not violate our Terms of Service. Our Terms of Service prohibit market manipulation. Threatening a journalist is not market manipulation. It is market feedback. The journalist's article, however, moved the price. We are reviewing whether accurate reporting constitutes a manipulative resolution event. That's due diligence. On Saturday night, the messages changed. A WhatsApp user sent the journalist a countdown. "You have exactly half an hour to correct your attempt at influence." "After you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you." "86 minutes left. You are the only one responsible for your life." The sender referenced the journalist's home neighborhood. His parents. His siblings. He told the journalist it had taken them less than five minutes to find his address. He told him they knew how often he sees his family. That's due diligence with a personal touch. Then someone called the journalist posing as a lawyer named Vered. The person on the phone sounded like a young man. The young man said he represented a company in the United States that was investigating the journalist for market manipulation. The journalist hung up and went to the police. The market has spoken. On Monday, the journalist received more threats. He received them while running to a bomb shelter. Another Iranian missile attack was underway. He was dodging the missiles our traders were betting on while reading messages from the traders who were betting on them. That's market participation from both sides. I escalated to our Board. The Board reviewed the matter. They noted that the journalist's decision to publish the threats had created additional market volatility. They recommended we add a clause to our Terms of Service discouraging resolution-adjacent publicity. Resolution-adjacent publicity is when someone draws attention to the process by which a market is resolved. We prefer resolution to occur quietly. Quiet resolution is more efficient. Efficiency is a core value. Our legal team drafted a memo. The memo explored whether a news organization's editorial decisions could be classified as resolution interference. The memo concluded that they could not — at this time — but recommended we build a framework. I have the framework. Tier 1. A news article is published that contradicts an active market. We flag it. Tier 2. The article moves the market more than 2 points. We escalate to our Source Reliability Index. Tier 3. The article threatens the resolution of a market with more than $10 million in open positions. We contact the publication. This is not pressure. This is information sharing. We condemned the threats publicly. We banned the accounts. We said we would share user information with the relevant authorities. We did not say which authorities. We did not say whether we had heard from the police. We did not answer follow-up questions. We are a nine-billion-dollar company. We are in talks to double that valuation. Answering follow-up questions is not in the term sheet. The journalist's reporting was accurate. The market has not yet resolved. The dispute is ongoing. Fourteen million dollars remains in limbo because the traders who bet on a version of reality that did not occur are contesting the version that did. Last month, an IDF reservist and a civilian were indicted for using classified military information to place bets on our Iran war markets. That was insider trading. This week, traders tried to rewrite a journalist's article to win a bet. That was outsider trading. We do not have a policy for outsider trading. We are drafting one. Congress introduced a bill the same day. The "Bets Off Act." It would ban prediction market trades on terrorism, war, and assassinations. We did not manipulate the market. Our traders attempted to manipulate reality. Reality is not covered by our Terms of Service. The market has spoken. The journalist has been corrected. The correction did not change his article. It changed his address book. It changed his locks. It changed the route he takes home. In prediction markets, truth is whatever the market closes at. Journalism is a pre-market estimate. Sometimes estimates need corrective feedback. We are hiring a fifth member of our Trust and Safety team.


Trump has never helped Ukraine. Don’t confuse the US selling old weapons to Europe for them to gift to Ukraine as “help”. It’s not. It’s profiting from war.







TODAY 🚨: The Commission issued an interpretation that clarifies the application of federal securities laws to crypto assets. This is a major step to provide greater clarity regarding the Commission’s treatment of crypto assets. Read the release here: ow.ly/XhhV50YvxvO













