RptSet Sports Analytics
259 posts
RptSet Sports Analytics
@RptSet
NRL/NFL Picks and Tips + some other bonuses. Stats analysis and data based game reviews coming soon to a YouTube near U.
Katılım Haziran 2024
192 Takip Edilen11 Takipçiler
@FPLHints I felt like this gave me the most flexibility to adapt to whatever UCL/FA Cup mess that could occur and still feel like this will pay off. Lost a lil to the BB33 crowd but have more options available for the final rounds
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Curious to know if anyone else did a FH33, which is due to be followed up by a reasonable XI for BGW34, followed by a WC35 for a BB36?
#FPL
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At this point, FPL is pretty much a consensus game. Chasing differentials feels like a losing battle, even when they pay off, the green arrows barely move me through the ranks. Fighting the template may not be worth it anymore.
Mart Cruz@MartCruz_19
Fairs WC32 managers won 59 points on FH and I can't even check my rank Would have been much better with BB33 See Justin potential 20 pointer, Van Hecke 13 pointer and Verbuggen 8 pointer this would have been a massive BB. WC32 managers even got the lucky clean sheet vs Burnley and some even got Wieffer mega haul last week. #FPL
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@NRLBackyardBets @ActuaryDataPick @NBWT__ Yep good point. I saw a theory recently in soccer on some clubs grading strikers higher on how much they are getting into position to take a shot over how much they convert their chance.. something that could apply here too
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@RptSet @ActuaryDataPick @NBWT__ Probably worse as we can exclude tries that play the ball didn’t start within 20 also…they have a few long range tries…warriors game there was 3
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Before last nights game:
Wests Tigers
Opp20 Conv% (Attack): 12.7% → rank 14th (2nd worst)
Opp20 Def% (Defence): 15.8% → rank 11th
Brisbane Broncos
Opp20 Conv% (Attack): 20.2% → rank 5th
Opp20 Def% (Defence): 11.5% → rank 3rd (3rd best)
Tigers need to get that red zone sorted
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@NRLBackyardBets @ActuaryDataPick I havent compared it to fox sports stats for conversion rate, but this is both teams heatmaps for rounds 1-6 (obv tigers on the bye in round 1). I'd normally agree with U on their finishing, but at a guess I'd say this has been their best season inside 20m in a while
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@LeagueEyeTest Great article, do U log the heatmap data yourself via ocr on the broadcast?
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Yes the Tigers lost on Saturday, but they've still shown dramatic improvement this season, especially in defense. This week's post is a look at the numbers showing how Benji has shaped the team
And of course there's some Alex Twal stats
rugbyleagueeyetest.com/2026/04/20/don…
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@NRLBackyardBets @ActuaryDataPick If anything their low conversion rate could more be skewed lower due to their amount of tackles inside opp20 over league average
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@joaquin_roth Thanks for the thread, just checked tho and we'll only have 2 FT before 2nd leg
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From a Fantasy perspective, flexibility is on our side.
We’ll have 3 free transfers between the 1st and 2nd legs, and another full reset before the Round of 16, essentially a mini wildcard.
That means the focus shouldn’t be on chasing one-off hauls, but on maximising two matches, protecting structure, and keeping multiple routes open.
In knockout Fantasy, patience isn’t passive.
It’s usually the optimal play.
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Welcome to my #UCLFantasy Play-Off 1st Leg Preview.
Knockout football is finally here.
First legs, two-tie dynamics, managers thinking more about not losing than winning big.
This is usually where Fantasy players get impatient, and where a lot of mistakes happen.
Now that the league phase is over, our pool of viable options is much smaller, which means that chasing rank becomes harder, margins are thinner, and every differential cuts both ways: they can push you up fast... or punish you just as quickly if you go without the common picks.
The objective for these playoffs is simple: protect the structure, minimise damage, and maintain flexibility for the return legs.
Let’s break it down in this giga-thread 👇
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@SCWhisperer I don't think any game has beaten it since
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The NRL keep pushing this “no helmets, no pads, no breaks” nonsense to entice the American audience.
If they really want to break into the US market, just show them Titans v Tigers from 2022, 8pm prime time national TV footy.
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@TomSangsterSC Hey Tom, could you please have a look on NRL.com and tell us how many line engaged runs *any player* made last year?
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It's the same definition as last year. The confusion came because Stats Perform includes line engagements in 'all runs'. But we won't be and never have.
Just think of it as "all runs minus line engagements."
SuperCoach NRL@SuperCoachNRL
🚨🚨🚨 We wish to clarify the definition of a “run” under the new statistics system. ▶️ A run is recorded when a ball carrier advances into or through the defensive line. ▶️ This includes cases where the player is tackled or beats defenders without being touched (e.g. intercepts or linebreaks). ▶️ Line engagements will not be recorded as runs. For example, if a playmaker runs to the line and engages the defence before passing or kicking, no run will be awarded.
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@CFCTimB @SCWhisperer Yeh no disagreement there. Also NRL.com haven't logged line engagements for the last 2 years so that will be messy too
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@SCWhisperer @RptSet Yep, THIS is the problem. The implementation is an absolute disaster and completely ham fisted.
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So, do we have clarification on where the stat is being pulled from? Because, as of right now there is no public data that is readily available?
SuperCoach NRL@SuperCoachNRL
🚨🚨🚨 We wish to clarify the definition of a “run” under the new statistics system. ▶️ A run is recorded when a ball carrier advances into or through the defensive line. ▶️ This includes cases where the player is tackled or beats defenders without being touched (e.g. intercepts or linebreaks). ▶️ Line engagements will not be recorded as runs. For example, if a playmaker runs to the line and engages the defence before passing or kicking, no run will be awarded.
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@SCWhisperer @CFCTimB Was always ridiculous that there were two sets of (often conflicting) stats for the league, it'll be messy for supercoach for a lil bit but it's better for everyone in the long run that there's one source of truth
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@CFCTimB “We’ve listened to you”
Or, your parent company is making a business decision…..
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@SCWhisperer Yeh, don't think we'll truly know till round 1. Player stats columns for yesterday's preseason game are still the same as past years, but I'm expecting this to change soon as historically only 'Offloads' have been displayed, and 'held up in goal' hasn't be shared before either
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@RptSet I hope it’s no change…. But the app and web show otherwise
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As we eye off the first official trial, NRLFantasyPro has been working rigorously in the background the help us get an idea on scoring.
Today, “all runs” have been added, I like many others think this is the correct way forward as NRL don’t inherently track “hit ups”.
This has lead to an overall boost in 95% of the leagues averages!
@BrainTalksBall | @7TackleSetNRL | @AmanTalksNRLSC
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@SCWhisperer In answer to the Herbie vs Molo question, it would seem that not all herbies 'runs' end in a tackle, as opposed to Molo who would just go straight into the line resulting in a 'hitup'. I don't know the official criteria but that would be my best guess
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@RptSet I’m saying this to learn, and if you can help me. Amazing.
Why would someone like Francis Molo have 15 hit ups on the nrl website, but say Herbie, only have 1. When Herbie has like 20 runs and 200m?
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@SCWhisperer You could be right on the change to All runs, I hadn't seen that when I first replied. On supercoach website its defined as 'no change' but clearly there's some pretty big variance in the numbers
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@SCWhisperer I just noticed that too while looking into it.
The short answer, I think it's gonna be a bit messy 🤣 depends on how they update the criteria. Ctws/Fwds won't change much, will be interesting to see what happens to FLB/HFB. Comparisons below
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