Sman Cometh

$NASDAQ Monthly Since 1976 - RSI (47) Is At LT Levels Associated w/ Bottoms as is Slow Stoch - Last 3 times NAS lived below RSI 50 for extended period: 2001-2003, 2008-2009,2022 Early April BUT keeping👀on. $SPX $NDX $VIX $NYSE $QQQ $IWM $DIA #stockmarketcrash

Yes, the worst six months are coming up soon (May - October). But these six months have been lower only once the past decade and last year was the greatest Sell in May return ever (+22.8%). We are expecting another strong return this year.

The amount of huge transactions going through semiconductor stocks is increasing and today we saw some MASSIVE ones on $SMH and also $SOXL. Is something big about to happen? 🤔🤔 source: @VolumeLeaders

$SPX just hit overbought for the first time since September and remains in a steep uptrend. This mirrors last spring: after first tagging the RSI’s 70 threshold, momentum cooled, but the trend held and simply flattened. The next phase now could resemble this...

A historic earnings boom is developing. Estimates growing faster than they did in the mid-90s or late internet bubble years. Only covid recovery period saw a greater inflection. This boom is unique b/c it is not coming off an EPS drawdown (recovery).

SOXS with volume that is literally off the charts.

$SPX: 🔴 Down 3/4 days. 🟡 Down just 35 bps in 4 days after 3 huge weeks. 🟢 Now forming a potential bullish continuation pattern.

Is SOX a bubble? Not yet. At least by this reckoning: hbs.edu/ris/Publicatio…

The S&P 500 typically doesn’t find its ultimate peak when breadth had previously been so strong and producing new all-time high in the NYSE A/D Line.

THE S&P DURING THE WEEK OF APRIL21-28 OF MIDDLE ELECTION YEARS I see the S&P during April21-28 of mid election years as 6-18 since 1930 for an avg loss of 1.61% with the 1% moves 2-13. As reference, the S&P was 52-44 for an avg loss of 0.19% during the same week of all post 1930 years.

Why the coming week is crucial... Tech stocks rallied 20% in 3 weeks. That's (usually) either a market bottom or a near-peak in a bear market rally. The big tell: if buyers persisted over the following week, it was (usually) the former. Bulls want $XLK > 154 next week.

🇺🇸 S&P 500 History shows the same script in over 20 major events since WWII: markets snap back quicker than feared, and those who hold their nerve often win. Panic usually hurts more than the shock itself 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=S%26P+500 h/t @LanceRoberts $spx #spx #equity #stocks

A NEW Power Trend started TODAY! Yesterday, I recorded a new Webby Rambles On, combining two VIP concepts: my Webby RSI & the Power Trend I reviewed all important Power Trends going back over 120 years!! You'll learn a TON (I did) WRO #68 drops Saturday morning on Webby5150!

The $SPX's 14-period RSI on the 2-hour chart was STILL overbought through Monday's close, a condition that reflects just how persistent and one-sided this advance has been. What really stands out is both how long it took for momentum to re-enter overbought territory and, more importantly, how long it has stayed there without interruption...

THE FED’S FAVORITE INFLATION GAUGE JUST GOT CALLED A “ROUGH SWAG” At his confirmation hearing, Kevin Warsh didn’t just disagree with the Fed. He questioned the metric they rely on most. Core PCE sitting at 3.0% YoY was dismissed as a “rough swag.” That’s not a minor critique. That’s a direct challenge to the foundation of Fed policy. 📊 What Warsh Is Looking At Instead Instead of headline Core PCE, he pointed to: Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean → 2.3% Cleveland Fed Median CPI → 2.8% Both strip out volatility. Both suggest inflation is closer to target than the Fed admits. 🧠 Why This Matters for Traders If policymakers shift toward these measures: Inflation suddenly looks less sticky The case for rate cuts strengthens The market’s “higher for longer” narrative weakens Translation: The data didn’t change. The interpretation did. And that’s what moves markets. ⚠️ The Risk No One Is Pricing But this cuts both ways. If Warsh is right → policy is too tight. If he’s wrong → the Fed risks easing into still-sticky inflation. And that’s how policy mistakes happen. Not from bad data But from misreading the data that’s already there. When the framework shifts, volatility follows.

For a lot of people, ETFs are genuinely the smarter move, and recognising that early saves you a lot of pain.

Nasdaq Momentum Breadth Thrust triggered: As shown in chart attached, the Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator achieved greater than 80+ (top panel). Every time this has occurred since 2017, the index (bottom panel) was higher a year later 💯 $COMPQ $NDX $QQQ $SPX $SPY @FrankCappelleri

This was the strongest 16-day rally on record for semiconductors. @mattcerminaro

$ORCL Poised share.trendspider.com/chart/ORCL/668…

Breakaway Momentum Watch: Will now take a miracle -- 2550 net advances tomorrow (i. e. no more than 150 declines). But the bulls do have that Whaley Price Thrust working for them...

"We estimate that CTAs bought $44bn of US equities last week and $84bn globally. Over the next week, we estimate CTAs will continue to buy US and global equities in every scenario." -GS Morgan