Chris Dover@ChrisDMacro
Let me indulge myself, since you asked.
I'll start out by saying what we are all seeing and talking about is about 10-20% of what is really known or going on. There are millions of people involved in all of this from peope at the top to the lowest dude on the ground, agencies, units, partner forces...it's just immense how much information and planning is being done there and still in a lot of other places around the world.
A lot of people think they are smart enough to armchair quarterback kinetic action because they are successful in other parts of their life. It's the same in trading, folks who are successful in other parts of their life think they can just step into markets and be equally successful.
We know how that goes.
The amount of mental firepower working on this is dramatically under appreciated by the general public. They certainly give praise for courage and all that, but they dramatically underestimate the intellect in the military and government. I personally have known some who are now at the highest levels and are unquestionably the most intelligent, hardest working, gifted, hard charging maniacs I have ever had the benefit of being in the same room with to experience. You just know the second they walk into a room, everything and everyone changes and not a word was said.
So even with my experience over the years in war zones, whatever that's worth, I have no clue the capabilities, the missions that are being planned. But I can tell you that no one else does either.
Every now and again they turn the page and show us a brief glimpse into something new that they have and it comes out of no where.
The Bin Laden raid - those helo's they used. No one had seen those before.
The Maduro raid - whatever they used, it certainly isn't the only new and updated thing they have in their arsenal.
Those units are filled with the most autistic operators in existence. With unlimited budgets and nothing but time on their hands since we pulled out of Afghanistan. These are 35 year olds who have been in this game for a while, and are working in the most elite unit in the world, day in and day out with a bunch of other dudes who all seem to be better than they are. The
Then consider how many 22-25 year olds who are getting close to getting out of the military who are re-enlisting right now just for the opportunity to get some action. You don't join the infantry or any kinetic unit willingly and hope you don't go to war, that just doesn't happen. Those boys are chomping at the bit right now.
You wanna know what life has been like for every Marine/Soldier who enlisted after the GWOT? They've been picked on, laughed at, called names, thrashed, hammered, destroyed all because they've never been to war.
When they put the Alphas or Charlies on (when you show off your ribbons) they stand there with a mostly bare chest seeing those who were down range with a chest full of ribbons and medals.
And then they have everyone back home whining (their words) about Afghanistan, Iraq, GWOT etc...(I know back home we just don't want them to have to go through the PTSD and everything that comes with it, I understand it's coming from a beautiful place. We don't want to lose another generation to war, I get it, but it's perceived in a very bad way by the boys).
Then just add in the life of a young E3 in the military, literally everything is out to get you, to yell at you, to write you up, to make you do some stupid working party, stand in formation, stay up all night cleaning everything, again and again until 0600 because the First Sergeant said so. The amount of getting fucked with these men experience is on a completely different level. That's just a small taste of the pent up energy, and it never ends.
Until they get to unleash that hate.
Say what you will about 20 years of those long wars, the initial phase that we can bring is without comparison. It's spectacular, violent, surprising, addicting to watch, rewatch, and talk about over and over.
So day one on the ground is not like day 7000 of GWOT.
ok thanks for that.
I still believe there's no direct incentive for the US to rush to open Hormuz, other deals made might change that. So if we do work aggressively to get it open, then a handful of other things were figured out with global partners.
The Talking shit by world leaders will continue to drive fintwit higher and higher into a frenzy. And I'm here for it.
The America's are being restructured in a big way right now, while everyone is focused on the last century's playbook.