ScoGaun

🚨🚨🚨Next week FinTwit will be flooded with "Sell in May and go away" takes. Every year, same adage, same fear. We ran 9 statistical tests on it before the noise starts. 22 years. $SPY and $QQQ. Every May-October period since 2003. May-October was positive 77% of the time in $SPY and 81% in $QQQ. The adage implies summer is negative. It's positive 4 out of 5 years. Binomial test confirms: significantly different from a coin flip (p = 0.017). "The seasonal difference isn't real. In $SPY, the gap between May-Oct and Nov-Apr returns has a p-value of 0.49 which is statistically indistinguishable from a coin flip. In $QQQ, May-Oct actually returns MORE than Nov-Apr. Bootstrap confidence interval includes zero for both indices. There is no seasonal edge." The cost of following the adage: $10,000 invested in Buy & Hold grew to $69,649 in $SPY and $195,026 in $QQQ. The "Sell in May" strategy: $34,333 and $44,603. You lose $35,316 in $SPY, 50.7% of your terminal wealth. In $QQQ, you lose $150,423, 77.1%. The adage costs you more than it saves you. The real problem month is September (-0.60%), not May (+0.72%). July is the strongest summer month (+1.97%, p < 0.01). The adage is named after the wrong month. Summer is actually safer. Probability of a >10% drawdown in 60 days: 16% in summer vs 24% in winter for $SPY. The "dangerous" season has lower drawdown risk at every horizon we tested. The edge has decayed and reversed. From 2021-2026, May-Oct outperformed Nov-Apr by +4.4% in $SPY and +7.8% in $QQQ. The adage doesn't just fail, it's backwards now. We tested the event window. In the 10 days before May 1st, $SPY averages +0.74% with a 73% win rate. The market rallies into May. Nobody is actually selling. Sell in May and go away. To where? The market was positive 77% of the summers you missed. The adage cost you half your portfolio. The seasonal difference has a p-value of 0.49 which is statistically indistinguishable from noise. $SPY $QQQ $SPX

$QQQ / $SPY Pushing off the 50 weekly EMA I'm not in the business of predicting where the markets go but history says higher...

BREAKING: Iran responds after President Trump says their “entire civilization will die tonight:” “All diplomatic channels and indirect talks have been frozen after President Trump's recent threats,” Iran says.

Know that the biggest moves always come from failed breakdowns. It sounds simple… but when you truly understand why, it changes the way you see the markets. Yesterday was a perfect example of this. $QQQ was setting up for what looked like a clean breakdown below 600, sentiment was bearish, charts were cracking, and everyone was bracing for continuation lower. But then something flipped… Instead of momentum following through, price reclaimed the level it just broke. That’s your signal, not confirmation of weakness, but exhaustion of sellers. Let’s break down the psychology: Everyone gets trapped. When a key level breaks, traders short the breakdown and longs panic sell. It’s human nature, we fear missing the move. But when price fails to follow through and reclaims that level, those same traders are now trapped in the wrong direction. Think like this, trapped shorts = fuel. Once the breakdown fails, shorts have to cover to protect themselves. That short covering creates demand, which accelerates the reversal. Combine that with dip buyers stepping in at discounted levels, and you get explosive momentum back to the upside. The failed breakdown shakes confidence, resets positioning, and flips the psychology of the crowd. Markets move fastest when the majority is caught offside. So how do you spot a failed breakdown in real time? - Watch for immediate reclaims. If a key support level breaks, but price quickly snaps back above it on volume, that’s your first clue. The speed of the reclaim tells you there’s real demand. - Volume shifts. Heavy volume into the breakdown, followed by even heavier buying volume into the reclaim, confirms the trap. - Higher low confirmations. The next higher low after the reclaim often signals the start of a new leg up bc the crowd that sold the breakdown is now chasing back in. - Sentiment flips. When social feeds, traders, or even you start thinking “this thing looks dead,” yet the chart starts reclaiming key levels... that’s usually the start of something big. Yesterday’s move showed us this. Everyone was leaning bearish, expecting continuation… but the failed breakdown flushed out weak hands and created a reversal today. Something to take away is that failed breakdowns are not random. They’re kinda like psychological resets. They remove weak hands, trap the shorts, and hand control back to strong hands. If you can train yourself to recognize them, not panic into them, you’ll catch some of the most powerful moves in the market. The next time a chart looks like it’s “breaking down,” keep this in mind. Watch what happens after... Btw, if anyone was wondering, I still like $PLTR lol.