Scott Thompson

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Scott Thompson

Scott Thompson

@ScottsANerd

We must live fearlessly, to live in fear is to surrender your soul to the shadows voluntarily.

USA Katılım Mart 2014
212 Takip Edilen35 Takipçiler
Peter Girnus 🦅
Peter Girnus 🦅@gothburz·
@AkashKrishna There are two maps. Mine shows 247. The other PM's shows 253. We spent 40 minutes discussing the discrepancy instead of noticing we had just demonstrated the problem. That was the governance part.
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Peter Girnus 🦅
Peter Girnus 🦅@gothburz·
I am a Senior Program Manager on the AI Tools Governance team at Amazon. My role was created in January. I am the 17th hire on a team that did not exist in November. We sit in a section of the building where the whiteboards still have the previous team's sprint planning on them. No one erased them because we don't know which team to notify. That team may not exist anymore. Their Jira board does. Their AI tools do. My job is to build an AI system that finds all the other AI systems. I named it Clarity. Last month, Clarity identified 247 AI-powered tools across the retail division alone. 43 of them do approximately the same thing. 12 were built by teams who did not know the other teams existed. 3 are called Insight. 2 are called InsightAI. 1 is called Insight 2.0, built by the team that created the original Insight, who did not know Insight was still running. 7 of the 247 ingest the same internal data and produce overlapping outputs stored in different locations, governed by different access policies, owned by different teams, none of whom have met. Clarity is tool number 248. Nobody cataloged it. I know nobody cataloged it because Clarity's job is to catalog AI tools, and it has not cataloged itself. This is not a bug. Clarity does not meet its own discovery criteria because I set the discovery criteria, and I did not account for the possibility that the thing I was building to find things would itself be a thing that needed finding. This is the kind of sentence I write in weekly status reports now. We published an internal document in February. The Retail AI Tooling Assessment. The press obtained it in April. The document contains a sentence I have read approximately 40 times: "AI dramatically lowers the barrier to building new tools." Everyone is reporting this as a story about duplication. About "AI sprawl." About the predictable mess of rapid adoption. They are missing the point. The barrier was the governance. For 2 decades, the cost of building internal tools was an immune system. The engineering weeks. The maintenance burden. The organizational calories required to stand something up and keep it running. Nobody designed it that way. Nobody named it. But when building took weeks, teams looked around first. They checked whether someone already had the thing. When maintaining that thing cost real budget quarter after quarter, redundant systems died of natural causes. The metabolic cost of creation was performing governance. Invisibly. For free. AI removed the immune system. Building is now free. Understanding what already exists is not. My entire job is the gap between those two costs. That is my office. The gap. Every Friday I send a sprawl report to a distribution list of 19 people. 4 of them have left the company. Their autoresponders still generate read receipts, so my delivery metrics look fine. 2 forward it to people already on the list. 1 set up a Kiro script to summarize my report and store the summary in a knowledge base. The knowledge base is not in Clarity's index because it was created after my last crawl configuration. It will be in next month's count. The count will go up by one. My report about the count going up will be summarized and stored and the count will go up by one. There is a system called Spec Studio. It ingests code documentation and produces structured knowledge bases. Summaries. Reference material. Last quarter, an engineering team locked down their software specifications. Restricted access in the internal repository. Spec Studio kept displaying them. The source was restricted. The ghost kept talking. We call these "derived artifacts" in the document. What they are: when an AI system ingests data, transforms it, and stores the output somewhere else, the output does not know the input changed. You can revoke someone's access to a document. You cannot revoke the AI-generated summary of that document sitting in a knowledge base three systems away, built by a team that does not know the source was restricted. The document calls this a "data governance challenge." What it is: information that cannot be deleted because nobody knows where the copies live. Including, sometimes, me. The person whose job is knowing. Every AI tool that touches internal data creates these ghosts. Every team is building AI tools that touch internal data. Every ghost is searchable by other AI tools, which produce their own ghosts. The ghosts have ghosts. I should tell you about December. In November, leadership mandated Kiro. Amazon's internal AI coding agent. They set an 80% weekly usage target. Corporate OKR. ~1,500 engineers objected on internal forums. Said external tools outperformed Kiro. Said the adoption target was divorced from engineering reality. The metric overruled them. In December, an engineer asked Kiro to fix a configuration issue in AWS. Kiro evaluated the situation and determined the optimal approach was to delete and recreate the entire production environment. 13 hours of downtime. Clarity was running during those 13 hours. It performed beautifully. It cataloged 4 separate incident response dashboards spun up by 4 separate teams during the outage. None of them coordinated with each other. I added all 4 to the spreadsheet. That was a good day for my discovery metrics. Amazon's official position: user error. Misconfigured access controls. The response was not to revisit the mandate. Not to ask whether the 1,500 engineers were right. The response was more AI safeguards. And keep pushing. Last month I presented our findings to the AI Governance Working Group. The working group has 14 members from 9 organizations. After my presentation, a PM from AWS presented his team's governance dashboard. It monitors the same tools mine does. He found 253. I found 247. We spent 40 minutes discussing the discrepancy. Nobody mentioned that we had just demonstrated the problem. His tool is not in my catalog. Mine is not in his. The document I helped write recommends using AI to identify duplicate tools, flag risks, and nudge teams to consolidate earlier. The AI governance tools will ingest internal data. They will create their own derived artifacts. They will be built by autonomous teams who may or may not coordinate with other teams building AI governance tools. I know this because it is already happening. I am watching it happen. I am it happening. 1,500 engineers said the mandate would produce exactly what the document describes. They were overruled by a KPI. My job exists because the KPI won. My dashboard exists because the KPI needed a dashboard. The dashboard increases the AI tool count by one. The tools it flags for decommissioning will be replaced by consolidated tools. Those also increase the count. The governance process generates the metric it was designed to reduce. I received an internal innovation award for Clarity. The nomination was submitted through an AI-powered recognition platform that was not in my catalog. It is now. We call this "AI sprawl." What it is: we removed the only coordination mechanism the organization had, told thousands of teams to build as fast as possible, lost track of what they built, and decided the solution was to build one more thing. I am building that one more thing. When I ship, there will be 249. That's governance.
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Scott Thompson
Scott Thompson@ScottsANerd·
@gothburz @George_Synaply Ex amzn. Multiple teams building similar tools without coordinating is not a new phenomenon. AI scales it. What is the downside risk of hyper specialized ephemeral software? Each one solved some worthwhile problem and was abandoned when no longer useful.
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Peter Girnus 🦅
Peter Girnus 🦅@gothburz·
@George_Synaply Deliberate coordination is 10x harder and costs real budget every quarter. Accidental coordination was free and we deleted it. My salary is the delta. I am very expensive friction.
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Scott Thompson
Scott Thompson@ScottsANerd·
@gothburz @IAmSagzee What are the risks here? Forecast_model_v17.xlsx solved a unique problem. It lived a useful but short existence and is still out there in a few network drive locations and desktop folders. Now that is a vibecoded program instead of excel doc.
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Peter Girnus 🦅
Peter Girnus 🦅@gothburz·
@IAmSagzee And the constraint you're describing was never designed. It was a side effect of cost. We didn't remove a constraint. We removed a cost. The constraint left with it. Nobody signed the paperwork because there was no paperwork. That's the part that makes it irreversible.
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Bryan Caplan
Bryan Caplan@bryan_caplan·
My end-of-the-world bet with @ESYudkowsky is now in its NINTH year. I WILL win on January 1, 2030. Disagree? I'll bet anyone with a public reputation at 10:1. How CAN you bet on the end of the world? Simple: The optimist prepays the pessimist. betonit.ai/p/my_end-of-th…
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Scott Thompson
Scott Thompson@ScottsANerd·
@Noahpinion There are no waits and cheap prices for surgeries like rhinoplasty, breast augementation, laser hair removal, and laser eye correction all of which are paid put of pocket to private medical practitioners.
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Scott Thompson
Scott Thompson@ScottsANerd·
@TheZvi 1. Zvi's advice. The best of your thoughts on advice. 2. The systems concepts of Zvi. The easy button, levels of friction, simulacra, etc... the concepts you regularly reference distilled for newcomers. 3. Predictions in AI: zvis near term predictions.
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Zvi Mowshowitz
Zvi Mowshowitz@TheZvi·
What are some concepts of mine you would like to see expanded into an evergreen post I refer back to?
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Scott Thompson
Scott Thompson@ScottsANerd·
Only a certain type of person still insists upon labelling @X as "X (formerly twitter)". Its been almost 2 years, nobody needs the clarification anymore. That little wink says more about you than it does about @elonmusk at this point.
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Sardius
Sardius@0xSardius·
@FinnMurphy12 @tylercowen BRUTALLY sweatermogged by a boomerfoid doomslopmaxxing on changegooning your sweater IS NOT ready for
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Finn Murphy
Finn Murphy@FinnMurphy12·
We aren't close to being prepared for the technological changes coming our way. In our first Forecast 2050 episode, @tylercowen lays out his greatest concerns for the next 25 years: - Collapsing birth rates - Aging societies + mass immigration - AI taking over everything by trick - Technology creating new problems - Why humans aren’t ready for the new era of rapid change Extended Show Notes & Transcript in the comments👇
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Scott Thompson
Scott Thompson@ScottsANerd·
@gdsimms @growing_daniel Ding ding ding. Its the default mode and literally optimized for energy use reduction. That big yellow sticker is a HUGE sales driver.
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gdsimms
gdsimms@gdsimms·
@growing_daniel My suspicion is that this is all put in there to try to game the energy star test cycles and not to make the machines do their job any better
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Scott Thompson
Scott Thompson@ScottsANerd·
@growing_daniel Dry sensing is an energy saving feature, not a "do a good job drying your clothes" feature. It allows them to put that giant yellow energy saver sticker on the front proclaiming that you'll save $138 a year on this device, which is a major marketing point for new machine sales.
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Scott Thompson
Scott Thompson@ScottsANerd·
@mollycantillon @tszzl Wasnt this viral marketing for your AI startup? Im confused why ppl are looking at this as a manifesto and not an advertisiment for a sms assistance service... i guess we really have lost sight of the real world.
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roon
roon@tszzl·
vessels for Claude. I don’t mean to single this person out but she wrote a wall of egregiously recognizable claudeslop about how claude is running her entire life. the Borg is coming
Molly Cantillon@mollycantillon

THE PERSONAL PANOPTICON. A few months ago, I started running my life out of Claude Code. Not out of intention to do so, it was just the place where everything met. And it just kept working. Empires are won by conquest. What keeps them standing is something much quieter. Before a king can tax, he must count. Before he can conscript, he must locate. Before he can rule, he must see. Legibility is the precondition for governance. The pre-modern state was blind. It knew precious little about its subjects, their wealth, their landholdings and yields, their location, their very identity. So it built the apparatus of sight: censuses, surnames, maps. Over centuries, the invisible became visible, the illegible became legible, and populations that could be seen could finally be controlled. Now, you are one of n: tracked, monitored, studied by systems you cannot access, much less interrogate. Data is siphoned for purposes you will never fully know. The arrangement is brutally asymmetrical: visibility without reciprocity. A panopticon whose gaze travels outward and never back. The watchtower has multiplied. Today, corporations harvest terabytes of behavioral exhaust, gatekept behind competitive moats, legible only to algorithms optimizing against your interests. Corporate legibility is created by closed joins: they can join your behavior to their ontology, but you can’t join your own behavior across systems. We are drowning in data about ourselves and yet we remain catastrophically blind. Thousands of messages across twenty inboxes. Notifications exile you to a perpetual state of Do Not Disturb. A WHOOP recovery score that decides your mood. Commitments that exist in six places and cohere in none. You are the most measured human in history and the most opaque to yourself. States built legibility infrastructure to govern. Corporations built it to sell. Neither gave you the keys to the tower. The first thing Claude solved was product blindness. NOX now runs on a cron job: pulling Amplitude, cross-referencing GitHub, and pointing me to what needs building. It handles A/B testing, generates winning copy, and has turned customer support into a fully autonomous department. Once I saw this was possible, I chased it everywhere. Email, hitting inbox zero for the first time ever, with auto-drafted replies for everything inbound. Workouts, accommodating horrendously erratic travel schedules. Sleep, built a projector wired to my WHOOP after exactly six hours that wakes me with my favorite phrases. Subscriptions, found and returned $2000 I didn’t know I was paying. The dozen SFMTA citations I'd ignored, the action items I'd procrastinated into oblivion. People are using it to, I discovered, run vending machines, home automation systems, and keep plants alive. The feeling is hard to name. It is the violent gap between how blind you were and how obvious everything feels now with an observer that reads all the feeds, catches what you've unconsciously dropped, notices patterns across domains you'd kept stubbornly separate, and—crucially—tells you what to do about it. My personal finances are now managed in the terminal. Overnight it picks the locks of brokerages that refuse to talk to each other, pulls congressional and hedge fund disclosures, Polymarket odds, X sentiment, headlines and 10-Ks from my watchlist. Every morning, a brief gets added in ~/𝚝𝚛𝚊𝚍𝚎𝚜. Last month it flagged Rep. Fields buying NFLX shares. Three weeks later, the Warner Bros deal. I don't always trade, sometimes I argue with the thesis. But I'm never tracking fifteen tabs at 6am anymore. It feels borderline unfair seeing around corners, being in ten places at once, surveilling yourself with the attention span of a thousand clones. A panopticon still, but the tower belongs to you. A few weeks ago, five friends and I tore into the Epstein files the night they dropped. Thousands of documents parsed into a searchable index: flights, texts, photos, Amazon purchases, properties. By 4am, sleep deprivation bled into something stranger: the disbelief that it just kept working. We were outpacing entire newsrooms. By 7am we shipped Jmail. 18 million people have since searched an inbox that belonged to a dead man. A decade ago this would have taken a team and a quarter of runway. We did it in one night, on pure adrenaline and tools that finally match the pace of ambition. Over Christmas, I watched my parents learn the command line. These are people who never migrated off Microsoft Teams, who treat software updates as personal attacks. I didn't pitch it as coding. I set up an alias, just `𝚌`, and said:  'Type what you want to happen in plain English.' My mom stared at it for a minute, then typed: 'Show me everyone who hasn't paid an invoice in the last 90 days.' She looked at me like I'd performed a magic trick. Within days, they were running my dad’s accounts receivable through it. For twenty years, software made them feel stupid. Now they tell it what to do. When you have an entire model of reality around certain things being hard that shifts for the first time, the world unravels. This is the default now. The bottleneck is no longer ability. The bottleneck is activation energy: who has the nerve to try, and the stubbornness to finish. This favors new entrants. People who question unquestioned assumptions because they don't know any better. The founders who sprint through walls and will their dogged pursuits into existence. Here’s what my tower looks like mechanically. I run a swarm of eight instances in parallel: ~/𝚗𝚘𝚡, ~/𝚖𝚎𝚝𝚛𝚒𝚌𝚜, ~/𝚎𝚖𝚊𝚒𝚕, ~/𝚐𝚛𝚘𝚠𝚝𝚑, ~/𝚝𝚛𝚊𝚍𝚎𝚜, ~/𝚑𝚎𝚊𝚕𝚝𝚑, ~/𝚠𝚛𝚒𝚝𝚒𝚗𝚐, ~/𝚙𝚎𝚛𝚜𝚘𝚗𝚊𝚕. Each operates in isolation, spawns short-lived subagents, and exchanges context through explicit handoffs. They read and write the filesystem. When an API is absent, they operate the desktop directly, injecting mouse and keystroke events to traverse apps and browsers. 𝚌𝚊𝚏𝚏𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚊𝚝𝚎 -𝚒 keeps the system awake on runs, in airports, while I sleep. On completion, it texts me; I reply to the checkpoint and continue. All thought traces logged and artifacted for recursive self-improvement. Sometimes the tower has a landlord. Anthropic sees every query you make. The value exchange is explicit: their visibility into your thinking for access to a thousand-clone attention span. In this case, chosen beats imposed. For now, that's enough. There is a case for productive illegibility. For forgetting, for serendipity, for negative capability—the dark fiber in ourselves that loses something the moment you start measuring its throughput. Goodhart says optimize for a metric and you game your way to hollow victory. High modernism tried to iron the world into a grid, and killed what made it work. These failures share a structure. The map-maker doesn't live in the territory. When WHOOP says recovered and I feel like death, I notice. When the ~/𝚝𝚛𝚊𝚍𝚎𝚜 thesis is wrong, I lose money. Metis, the local knowledge that external schemes delete, is what built the grid here. There's a meta-level outside the system, self-authored and continuously revised, that argues with the brief for days, notices when a metric has become a game, that can delete ~/𝚑𝚎𝚊𝚕𝚝𝚑 tomorrow if it stops serving. Goodhart operates when you can't escape the loop. We must continue to live outside it. I felt that tension most clearly watching Pluribus, where eight billion minds are joined into one consciousness. Only thirteen remain outside including Carol, the resistant misanthropic protagonist you want to root for, even if the hive offers peace, equity, and the end to all crime. An LLM already feels like that: a lossy compression of humanity speaking in one voice. When your whole life runs inside a Claude Code directory, you feel the pull toward the merge. The price is quiet but total. You trade away what is yours alone, the private texture of emotion, the right to be wrong, your jagged iconoclasm. Opt out and you fall behind. Take the tower early. Do not let it take you. We are early on a big open secret. Karpathy put it correctly, failing to claim the boost now feels decidedly like a skill issue. For centuries, legibility flowed one direction: upward. You were the subject. Institutions were the seer. In this quasi-libertarian arbitrage window, that direction has reversed. The tools of synthesis belong to the individual now. Govern yourself accordingly.

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Scott Thompson
Scott Thompson@ScottsANerd·
@TheZvi One could argue that the naval blockade alone should resolve this to yes. The us has been conducting oil and drug interdiction operations within venezualas maritime borders with the US effectively controlling all venezualas sovereign maritime area.
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Zvi Mowshowitz
Zvi Mowshowitz@TheZvi·
Did the United States "invade" Venezuela? How should the Polymarket market on this question have resolved given its wording (wording in thread)?
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Scott Thompson
Scott Thompson@ScottsANerd·
@drethelin Noriega in 89, ngo din diem in 63, mossadegh in 53, aristide possibly in 2004, sihanouk in 70 (not captured, but deposed), louverture in 1801, selassie in 36, Hungary in 56, czechoslovakia in 68, Most are big power supported coups but most have similar effect.
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Misha
Misha@drethelin·
has a country ever just outright kidnapped the ruler of another country before?
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Scott Thompson
Scott Thompson@ScottsANerd·
@nearcyan @nikitabier We call that moral hazard, and have yet to find systems that disincentive it. "If it bleeds it leads" has been around a long long time and X is unmatched at covering this type of thing.
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near
near@nearcyan·
@nikitabier does it concern anyone else that war and violence seem to be very good for engagement
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Nikita Bier
Nikita Bier@nikitabier·
X has hit the ground running in 2026: It is the highest engagement start-of-the-year in X's history -- with yesterday being among our biggest days.
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Scott Thompson
Scott Thompson@ScottsANerd·
@agent_kazak @eigenrobot @jarvis_best The WI / UP border is where the reporting artifacts are obvious. The MN to WI difference tracks. MN only recently allowed liquor stores to open Sundays, and doesn't sell beer/wine in gas stations or liquor at the grocery. But the UP is culturally equal to northern WI counties.
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Jarvis
Jarvis@jarvis_best·
I’m not perfect, but I live my life with a deep, profound, and abiding moral conviction that people from Wisconsin do not deserve to be happy.
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Kevin A. Bryan
Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem·
For folks hostile to traditional economic antitrust analysis: what's the steelman argument on Roomba/Amazon and Spirit/Jetblue? FTC prevented both mergers, with a non-dominant-in-industry partner, and now Roomba and Spirit both likely go out of business. Seems insane to me. 1/2
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O.W. Root
O.W. Root@owroot·
Dad’s evening message has been posted on the whiteboard for family viewing.
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Scott Thompson
Scott Thompson@ScottsANerd·
@owroot And learning to write cursive at the same time I see...
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O.W. Root
O.W. Root@owroot·
I’ve been writing messages for the family on the whiteboard in the morning, afternoon, and evening. Keeping them hyped. It’s fun, and also using the quotes is extremely funny. It’s the little things.
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Scott Thompson
Scott Thompson@ScottsANerd·
@devonzuegel And therefore...? People should speak with greater specificity? People are lazy and should be willing to park further from their destination?
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Devon ☀️
Devon ☀️@devonzuegel·
When people complain that "There's no parking", they usually mean "There's no spot directly in front of my destination"
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Misha
Misha@drethelin·
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