Sean Miner

CNN reporting Trump considering declaring a national emergency so he can impose tariffs quickly and broadly. edition.cnn.com/2025/01/08/eco…

@State_E @StateDept @PIIE @EconAtState @BizAtState @GPatState @STASatState @SciDiplomacyUSA @EnergyAtState @AsstSecENR @SubnationalDip Love this @ChadBown congrats!

Thread on BIS clarification on chip export controls: reduces uncertainty & unintended consequences 1. Most restrictions are by "fab" facility. Clarifies if multiple buildings at one campus fine to keep servicing uncontrolled trailing edge if sep building bis.doc.gov/index.php/docu…

Pub Day! Eight years of work distilled into one book you'll love if you're into the future of money, finance, tech, China, and more. Read this thread for a sense of what's inside and why it matters for the US and world. publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/martin-…

Read the first excerpt of my book (which is out Tuesday!!) in @thewirechina!

Hot off the presses! My latest on foreign investment and CFIUS, which screens for security threats, especially on 🇨🇳 deals. Main takeaway: security screening is rising without scaring away most foreign investors, as investment is booming Quick thread: piie.com/blogs/realtime…

@JoshuaSteinman Joshua, how much would that really bring onshoring? Section 301 tariffs on products from China (up to 25%) have been in place for a few years. US trade deficit with China near all time high. Need targeted tariffs on finished goods rather than tariffs on components/raw materials.

Want to fix the supply chain situation? We need a "Volker Moment," ala October 6, 1979. 10% across the board tariff increase overnight. No exceptions. Will be painful, but the supply chains will shift FAST. Otherwise, we will continue to die a death of a thousand cuts.

In January 2020, former President Donald Trump signed a trade deal that committed China to purchase an additional $200 billion of US exports over 2020-21. The data are now in. In the end, China bought none of that extra $200 billion. My latest, 1/🧵 piie.com/blogs/realtime…

I just spoke with @VDombrovskis about our shared priorities and strengthening the relationship between the U.S and the E.U. We will work to address shared concerns about climate change, forced labor and non-market economies.

@AmbassadorTai @USTradeRep Woohoo! Congrats!!!

Honored to serve as @USTRadeRep. I’m ready to walk, chew gum and play chess at the same time!

@MaraRhymesSarah Good question. I would think they need to go big and broad (new products) because the US sees DST as a big threat and the US will want to be armed with a lot of potential firepower

@SeanMiner do you think it will be different products from the French goods on 301 for Airbus? Or just higher tariffs on wine, cheese, etc?

Look quite likely that France is about to get hit with Section 301 tariffs as a response to their Digital Services Tax (DST)... USTR announces it intends to issue its report on Monday, Dec 2. ustr.gov/about-us/polic… #tradewar #section301 #France #USTR

@MaraRhymesSarah My guess is that USTR will publish a proposed list of products to target for 301 tariffs, as a deterrent to France implementing the DST. That way the US will be ready to fire if France implements the DST.

@SeanMiner you don't think USTR could use another penalty? Or say that France is still holding off and so no action needed unless the tax comes into play?

“In the meetings this week, Chinese officials explicitly warned companies that any move to pull production from China that seemed to go beyond standard diversification for security purposes could lead to punishment” nytimes.com/2019/06/08/bus… via ⁦@nytimes⁩

“Call it the ABC supply chain, as in ‘anywhere but China’.” Companies losing their willingness to depend entirely on China for their worldwide operations, and beginning to disperse factories more widely. nytimes.com/2019/05/17/bus…

China Loses More From This Trade War. 3 important points: Some firms moving out of China to avoid tariffs; some economies (EU) may erect protections on some Chinese goods too (a la steel protection); and China currently losing FDI to other low wage nations bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

A EU-US agreement on industrial goods would increase EU exports by 8% and US exports by 9%; this corresponds to additional gains of €27 billion and €26 billion respectively trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/press/i…

#China's export growth to the US for the $50 billion product list with a 25 percent tariff now negative. Other exports still robust.

The burden of tariffs is being unequally distributed among Americans, says @melovely_max in @MktsInsider. Those who cannot afford to buy products from high-income countries will be hit harder than those who can. With additional comments from Nick Lardy: markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tr…

Considering moving #manufacturing operations out of #China? The @KPMG_US Trade Team is hosting a webcast on "Country of Origin," to explain the details of what it takes to confer a country of origin other than China. Register here: tax.kpmg.us/content/tax/en… #301 #trade #SupplyChain