Sean

@shanaka86 😂😂😂😂😂 Your analysis are so entertaining and funny.

BREAKING: Iran just threatened to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait through its Houthi allies if the situation gets out of control. A senior Iranian source confirmed this to Reuters hours ago. If that threat materialises, one third of global maritime trade will be simultaneously severed across two chokepoints for the first time since the Second World War. Hormuz carries roughly 20 to 25 percent of seaborne oil and LNG trade. Bab al-Mandeb carries approximately 12 percent of global seaborne commerce. The insurance market that created the Hormuz blockade, the mechanism the Dallas Fed identified as the primary driver of the closure, would replicate instantly at Bab al-Mandeb. War-risk premiums that turned a $200,000 voyage into an $8 to $14 million voyage at Hormuz would apply to every vessel transiting the Red Sea. The molecule crisis doubles. The food crisis doubles. The pharmaceutical crisis doubles. Every supply chain that rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid Hormuz would find the alternative route also closed. But the development that should stop every allocator on earth is not the second strait. It is the human chains. Iran’s Supreme Council of Youth has directed all young people, athletes, artists, students, and their professors to form human chains around power plants and critical infrastructure starting this afternoon. State television broadcast the mobilisation call. President Pezeshkian endorsed it on X. The regime claims 14 million volunteers. This is not a humanitarian gesture. It is a game theory trap with no solution for the attacker. If the US strikes the power plants despite the human shields, three things happen simultaneously: the war-crime optics cascade triggers global condemnation that could fracture the coalition, the desalination system collapses because 75 percent of Gulf desalination is co-located with power generation, and the petrochemical restart becomes physically impossible for years to decades because no cracker can operate without electricity and cooling water. The molecule crisis becomes permanent. If the US does not strike the power plants because of the human shields, the deadline collapses, deterrence evaporates, Hormuz stays closed, and the molecule crisis persists at current levels indefinitely. The IRGC’s Mosaic Defence, 31 independent provincial commands designed over two decades explicitly to survive decapitation, continues operating below the infrastructure level while the yuan toll collects revenue daily. The outcome for the molecule thesis is identical in both branches. That is the insight the market has not processed. The human chains do not change the duration of the petrochemical crisis. They guarantee it. Strike the plants: the crisis becomes permanent because the restart prerequisites are destroyed. Do not strike the plants: the crisis continues because Hormuz remains closed and reconstruction cannot begin while the war persists. Either path produces a multi-year structural deficit in the six systems that depend on the molecule group routed through this chokepoint. Food. Pharmaceuticals. Packaging. Military chemistry. Dollar architecture. Semiconductor fabrication. The synagogue that was bombed in central Tehran this morning was the Rafi-Nia congregation. Members inspected the ruins on Passover. The imagery will circulate for decades. The diplomatic channels are frozen. The IRGC has warned that the entire region and Saudi Arabia will fall into darkness if power plants are targeted. Trump posted that a whole civilisation will die tonight. The deadline is in hours. The molecule crisis is measured in years. The human chains just guaranteed the duration. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@PBDsPodcast Patrick you continue to sink to new lows

Jiang Xueqin Finally Breaks His Silence With PBD (0:00) Seeing Patterns (0:06:05) Trump’s Tweet (0:13:51) Worst Best Case (0:17:21) NATO, Russia China (0:29:18) China Population (0:33:50) Tang Ping Movement (0:37:04) Jack Ma & Jimmy Lei (0:43:27) The Chinese Dream (0:50:56) Speaking Out in China (0:54:19) COVID (1:03:05) Muslims in China (1:08:46) Canada China & U.S

@SA2K25 @tinarapport YES, Paid 😂😂😂 Watch and weep goat herder

@SeanYYZ_ISF @tinarapport Paid?? 😂😂😂

You betrayed Kurds in Syria to protect the interests of the Turkish state and made deals with Jolani. Do you now expect Kurds to die for your interests in Iran without any political guarantees? Kurds are done with your status quo games. No trust left. Clear status, not betrayal!

@grok @Panizachi wrong post Grok

No, there's no credible evidence for that claim. The video shows a woman at what appears to be a nighttime pro-Iran rally, speaking in support of the regime with overlaid English text praising "Iran raised warriors." The Persian post's accusation about payment from Hashd al-Shaabi for "jihad al-nikah" is a common online smear without any verifiable backing—likely just trolling.

همون قیمت بالایی که بچه شیعه ها سرش دعوا میکنن 😁 ظاهرا پول خوبی دادن بهش حشد الحشریا برای جهاد نکاح 🤡 #DigitalBlackOutIran‌

@BabakTaghvaee1 @NimaY1256 Can you explain why the “Army” people are not touched?

@NimaY1256 You know nothing about Iran's military. Before this war, the military power was shared between the Iran's Regular Army and the IRGC. The US/Israeli airstrikes made the Iran's regular army disappear. Now, IRGC has utmost military power in Iran.

We are now closer to the downfall of FDD, one of the think tanks that directed the White House toward this current disaster in Iran, which, instead of weakening the Islamic regime, has empowered it, prolonged its survival, and made the IRGC the dominant military and political force in Iran. #OperationEpicFury #OperationLionsRoar

وقتی احزاب کورد اسلحه‌هایی را که به نام دفاع از میهن گرفته بودند، دزدیدند و دریغ کردند… جاویدنام #سیاوش_شیرزاد ۳۸ ساله، شب ۱۸ دی‌ماه، همراه گروهی از جوانان کُرد در میدان پونک هلپرکی می‌رقصید که از فاصله‌ی نزدیک با گلوله جنگی به رگبار بسته شدند. ۲۲ جوان همان‌جا هدف قرار گرفتند. سیاوش مجروح شد. ساعت ۳ بامداد به بیمارستان الغدیر بردند که گفتند: جا نداریم. او را به بیمارستان رسول اکرم منتقل کردند. هنوز زنده بود، اما به‌دلیل عدم رسیدگی و خونریزی شدید جان باخت. خانواده ۴۸ ساعت دنبال او گشتند. پیکرش را پنهان کردند. پرونده را فوق امنیتی اعلام کردند. پدر و برادرش بازداشت شدند. تهدید کردند: اگر شلوغ شود، جنازه را در گورهای جمعی دفن می‌کنیم. نیمه‌شب، با اسکورت خودروهای نظامی او را بیرون از بوکان دفن کردند. کسی چه می‌داند شاید اسلحه‌ها را به قاتلینت فروخته بودند سیاوش… آهنگ رقص کردی «دیسان مرگه‌مه» از آیت احمدنژاد: مرگ له‌‌لام جه‌وان ترتائه‌م ژیانه به شه‌کو بی‌که‌شه قا فیز ئم گیانه با له‌شم بی‌روح جه‌سم به گیان بی مه‌رگ باش تره له خم نه ناو ژیان بی ئم‌رو مه‌رگمه‌ دیسان مه‌رگمه ئم‌رو مه رگمه دیسان مه‌رگمه تیری بی که‌سی له ناو جرگمه تیری بی که‌سی له ناو جرگمه #جاويدشاه‌ #KingRezaPahlavi‌ForIran

When you woke up this morning, your internet worked. You scrolled, you searched, you shared. But 90 million Iranians woke up — again — to total darkness. Their government has now imposed the longest nationwide internet blackout ever recorded in any country. Almost 40 consecutive days. That should alarm every one of us. Iran’s information blackout is a weapon against its own people. When governments can flip a switch and immediately disappear 90 million people from the internet, the rest of us lose our eyes and ears too.

This is the flag of the stupid Soviet separatist project of the so-called "Kurdistan." The proponents of this project are tribal, backward, backstabbing terrorist Marxist-Islamists. They are imposters from Iraq and elsewhere who have no claim to Iran's Kurdish heritage or Iran's territory. They have nothing to do with Iran or the Iranian people. They are communists and Jihadis. They have a caste system, they practice female genital mutilation, they betray everyone including themselves, and they lie, steal, and cheat. They are a confused, backwards people with a fake identity who cannot even get along with each other. Read their history to know who they are.

@MrMrrrtuba This looks like a typical meeting of the Coalition of Kurdish Separatists

رجل كردي محشور بين زوجتيه الأولى والثانية👰‍♀️، عراك دراماتيكي، ضرب ورفس ولطم 💀 والنتيجة المزيد من العراك، وش رايكم في التعدد بعد مشاهدتكم للفديو 😂

Son of Iran's twisted PR chief found living life of luxury in LA - and he's teaching superrich California kids trib.al/VvGJPoy

@KarluskaP 😂😂😂 The Kuwaitis can’t use our defence systems 😂. He’s spot on

Dammmmmmmmmmmn

@ranjamama @TimInHonolulu Kurds are paid mercenaries at best, and Trump explicitly said you were paid to fight in Iraq and Syria.

@TimInHonolulu Because Kurds are the most reliable ally of the US. By far in the region ? But without iron clad guarantees no one would fight or going into Iran.

Why is Trump publicly threatening the Kurdish Iranian resistance forces who are among the only armed resistance forces fighting the Iranian regime?

@Jason_Jorjani You’re starting to sound like Alex Jones

Let me be clear. If this operation takes place, the US Government will eventually be overthrown, Jews will be wiped off the face of the Earth, and the planet will be governed by Nazis. You can call me crazy, or go figure out why that would be the case, but it's what will happen.

For all the separatist Kurds to read…

@abdulnoor_amir @Tarikh_Eran Trump said it, and again, and again, and then he said he’s gonna deal with you goat herders over it as well. Trump is playing 5-D chess with you separatists and you’re too brain dead to understand it.

SCANDAL While tens of thousands of Iranians were getting slaughtered in the streets, Kurdish separatists parties were posting goofy Instagram reels with the weapons they stole. They told America the weapons would be transferred to protestors, but they lied.

@kshahrooz The reason why Pahlavi supporters just insult you and don’t engage in conversation with you is because they don’t respect you, and you only pick and choose what the respond to. The Mujahideen are old family members of yours, they dont insult their own kind

دیروز چند پست نوشتم؛ بعضی در نقد پهلوی و بعضی در نقد مجاهدین. از طرف هواداران هر دو گروه پیام‌های منفی زیادی گرفتم، اما شکل واکنش‌ها متفاوت بود. پهلوی‌چی‌ها: فقط فحاشی. کوچک ‌ترین تلاشی نکردند که با استدلال نشان دهند چرا حرفم اشتباه است. مجاهدین: هیچ فحاشی در کار نبود. اما اصرار بر این‌که چون جنبش‌شان هزینه سنگینی داده، فردی مثل من حق نقد آن‌ها را ندارد. کوچک ‌ترین تلاشی نکردند که با استدلال نشان دهند چرا حرفم اشتباه است. در هر دو مورد، تلاشی برای استدلال وجود ندارد (چون هیچ‌کدام از این نیروها علاقه‌ای به شنیدن دیدگاه متفاوت ندارند). اما مجاهدین آشکارا نیروی سیاسی منضبط‌تری هستند. واکنش‌هایشان به اندازه‌ی پهلوی‌چی‌ها احساس انزجار ایجاد نمی‌کند.

@EYakoby From a Pakistani account, they will believe anything

These people can’t be this stupid.