seankush

This is the $BTC top and so few know it. Current price: 116k and it topped at 124k. I see the same delusional perma bulls in 2021 at both tops that I sold. I've been making gains on MSTR shorts and will continue to do so. It's the same if BTC makes a new high 125-130 and then straight down, it's all in the same general vicinity of the top. The market is smarter, if you're thinking it's going to be the same as the last 2 cycles topping in November, the Q4 dreams and that you're going to sell and cash out this time around is wishful thinking. It's easy to gain but harder to keep. Sell something here if you don't think its the top at least. If this grinds higher without a proper correction of a bigger drawdown below 90k, then it could be cycle top depending on how long it stays like this up here.

friend's dad

TOTAL3 UPDATE: STRUCTURE RESET Since the Jan 18th update, $TOTAL 3 has resolved lower and clarified the range What played out ⤵️ ➭ Rejection at the Oct High AVWAP (~$922B) ➭ Weekly hypertrend failed to flip bullish and has now been lost ➭ $870-880B demand did not hold on retest That shifts the technical focus lower. Key levels: ➤ 200MA near ~$676B as the first major structural support ➤ Genesis AVWAP around ~$613B as the deeper regime level This move doesn't invalidate the broader cycle It only resets positioning Compression resolved without fresh liquidity entering the system. That's consistent with macro conditions where risk appetite pauses rather than expands What matters now is TOTAL3 finding acceptance near long-term averages would mark stabilization -- that's where bases are built when capital is waiting The rotation is only being delayed until liquidity improves Watching closely now for structure to be built out and for news on a change in the fiscal policy / banking regime

Summary Update • Bitcoin is ~28% below its long-term power-law trend at a point in the cycle where it has always been overheated before. This has no historical precedent. • Institutional positioning is aggressively bullish. CME futures trade at ~32% annualized premium, while retail leverage remains muted (perp funding ~8%). High retail leverage usually kills rallies (via liquidation cascades). Its absence suggests the foundation for the next leg up is concrete, not straw. • ~$2.5B of ETF outflows have been absorbed without major price breakdown, while hash rate sits at all-time highs signaling strong underlying demand. • Price is mechanically capped near $100k by options gamma, but ~42% of that resistance expires soon, weakening the ceiling. • The dominant force is market structure, not narrative. This looks like compression, not distribution. Bottom line: Bitcoin is deeply disbelieved, structurally constrained, and historically undervalued for this stage of the cycle conditions that has historically preceded repricing, not reversal.

Top line is where the liquidity fuel has cyclically exhausted. It ends the red zone. All multi-year tops have printed here. Bottom line is where the liquidity fuel has cyclically ignited. It begins the red zone. All multi-year parabolic moves have started here. Bitcoin doesn’t care about the calendar. It cares about liquidity. Where are we?