SenesLULZ

The Hormuz blockade is smarter than people let on. Iran’s oil storage fills in 2 weeks. After that, production stops. Trump just gave them exactly 2 weeks. lordfed.co.uk/p/the-setup-no…

@Wild_Randomness @lord_fed One of the "good" ones and calls for 6200 with absolute no fuckin basis other than some TA. No read on liquidity, positioning, cross-asset correlations, zero fundamental understanding of fed policy and implications for risk assets, and the list goes on... But yeah. "Good."

@based16z Rules are rules, crystallize some of those gains brother. Looks like doom, but it did the last two times we had >1% bearish engulfing candles too and look what happened… However, I’ll be honest if VIX futures ends up confirming this move then you get to retire (again).

Last week was a bear trap. lordfed.co.uk/p/why-last-wee…

We’re standing at the edge of a market reckoning that will leave 2007-2008 looking like a footnote. The longest bull market in history doesn’t end quietly. Consider this your final warning. Heading into 2026 the underlying stress in financial markets is clearer than most headlines suggest. Regional banks still carry significant commercial real estate exposure and large blocks of CRE debt are rolling toward maturity through 2025 into 2027, increasing refinancing risk at a time when asset values remain under pressure. Many lenders are modifying loans instead of reducing exposure. A classic sign of stress building beneath the surface rather than blowing up all at once. Over the past few years we saw the U.S. yield curve invert in 2022 and 2023, a historical recession signal. Today that inversion has begun to unwind and the curve is re steepening. In past cycles such as 2000 and 2007 markets didn’t collapse during the inversion. They crashed after re steepening because tightening conditions and repricing stress accelerate once the curve stops inverting. That pattern is showing up again. At the same time liquidity that once propped up risk assets is quietly retreating. Rate cuts and short term liquidity injections aren’t bullish in this environment. They are reactive addressing stress rather than creating durable expansion. #Bitcoin has already acted as an early warning. It’s crashed roughly 30% from its highs and in previous risk off regimes like 2018 and 2022 crypto weakness led broader equities lower with a lag. Equities rarely decouple from risk sentiment forever. They play catch up. In November, we positioned for the first leg down and nailed it. We shorted $TSLA from $436 down to $380’s, locked in substantial profits and did the same with $SPY from $686 down into the $650s. With $NVDA, we caught the move from $195 to the $170s. We took profits and then began adding back on the push up. Early? Yes. But we managed through it. No system can nail a perfect top. When the larger move starts to unwind? Everything will be absorbed and multiplied making all of this look like chump change.. My timeline has always been late January into February. We’ve played the short term moves but the overall plan remains unchanged. We’re positioned in $TSLA again for the move to the mid $300s. We started shorting $TSLA again around $440, doubled down at $450 and then took most off at $444. Then began shorting $480 proceeding to take the loss up to $490. Now? We are positioning again. We are in $SPY for the move to the low $600s. We got our final add into the February shorts yesterday. We are about to get back into $NVDA for the move to the low $100s. We are in $MU looking for the move to the $160's. We are in $AAPL for the move down to $250 and lower. We are in $QQQ for the move down to the $550s. We are looking for the move down on #Bitcoin for the low $70,000s. So to the perma bulls and Moon Boys. To the trolls. You can keep laughing. But when the market starts breaking the November lows and starts unwinding and we see the move back to the April lows going into Q1, you’ll see what discipline looks like. You will see how discipline pays. We’ve been positioning, managing risk, adding and trimming for this all along. I am coming after this market with FULL force. This isn’t just another correction. This is a major shift that is about to occur.. Ignore the macro backdrop at your own risk. This is where the charts start doing the talking. You don’t have to agree with any of this. Most people won’t until price removes the choice. I’m not here to argue about daily candles. I’m not here to react to every little wiggle or squeeze anymore. I’m here for the unwind. Pin it. Screenshot it. Laugh at it if you want. Let’s see how “just another dip” feels by late February. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION IN THIS MATTER. — TJ #SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #MU #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #StockMarket #MoveTo600