
The Daily Dave
27.2K posts

The Daily Dave
@SiliconStart
Software dev since the 70s, CPA (Inactive), moderate conservative, believer in AI as a force for good, Tesla fan. Music: 60s-70s, Beethoven/Chopin Piano mostly
Houston, TX Katılım Nisan 2022
1.3K Takip Edilen1.2K Takipçiler

@trumplicans2024 No Country for Old Men, Godfather 1&2, T2.
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@BraddrofliT Yeah, I’m very worried about our “alliance” with Iran
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@MaMoMVPY So many times people have said he must be nuts. Hold his beer.
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Just making up completely bullshit. Are there any US tech CEO who are able to sound semi-normal?
Watcher.Guru@WatcherGuru
Elon Musk says X could become half of the global financial system if done right.
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@gnoble79 Tell me you don’t understand the business Tesla is in, without saying, “I don’t understand the business Tesla is in”.
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Tesla is a $1.3 trillion company that sold fewer cars this year than last year.
And fewer last year than the year before.
That should tell you everything you need to know.
2 consecutive years of declining deliveries. Down 9% in 2025 to 1.63 million vehicles. The steepest annual drop in the company's history.
And 2026 is starting even worse - US sales down 17% in January, Europe down 44% across major markets.
France down 42%. Netherlands down 67%. Norway down 88%.
BYD passed them as the global EV leader. In the UK, BYD outsold Tesla 2 to 1 last month.
The brand is in FREEFALL.
Brand Finance measured a 36% collapse in Tesla's brand value last year - down to $27.6 billion, less than half its 2023 peak. In California, their most important US market, share dropped from 11.6% to 9.9%.
And the stock trades at 365 times trailing earnings.
Let me say that differently:
Tesla earned $3.8 billion last year. The market is valuing those earnings at $1.3 trillion. You are paying $365 for every dollar this company earns.
The bull case has completely abandoned the car business. It's all robotaxis and Optimus robots now. They discontinued the Model S and Model X. They told investors on the last earnings call to stop focusing on vehicle deliveries and start thinking about "transportation as a service."
So in other words: please ignore the business we actually have and value us on the business we MIGHT have someday.
Trust me, every time management tells you to look over there instead of over here... LOOK OVER HERE.
The car business is deteriorating. Margins are compressing. Competition from BYD, Volkswagen, and a dozen Chinese manufacturers is intensifying quarter by quarter. The $7,500 federal EV tax credit is gone, which effectively raised the price of every Tesla overnight.
And instead of addressing any of that, they're doubling capex to $20 billion this year - almost entirely directed at AI and autonomous driving infrastructure.
So you have a company with shrinking revenue, shrinking deliveries, a damaged brand, and intensifying competition pouring $20 billion into a technology that hasn't been proven at commercial scale.
On 365 times earnings.
Even if you give them the most generous robotaxi assumptions imaginable (full regulatory approval, nationwide deployment, dominant market share) you still can't justify this valuation. The present value of that optionality doesn't come close to $1.3 trillion when the core business is going backwards.
I think this stock goes down 90% from here.
Not because Tesla is worthless. They'll sell cars. The energy storage business has potential. But the equity is priced for a future that isn't coming on the timeline the market expects.
A $37 stock. That's where the math takes you when you strip out the narrative and price what actually exists.
I know that sounds extreme. But 45 years of doing this has taught me something:
When you can see the seams on the fastball, you SWING.
I can see the seams.
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@SawyerMerritt Are these cars able to carry > 2 passengers as configured for this task?
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@kenmartin73 The mess at the airports is 100% Democrat.
You can't lie your ways out of this.
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@BigTechAlert @larryellison It wasn't as though he ever used it.
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@ForgeFuturesAI @paul_nourse @BLKMDL3 @elonmusk It is highly unlikely after spending years building a factory to build 50K units/year, that they're going to say, "Damn. We forgot about I40 in Arkansas..."
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@paul_nourse @BLKMDL3 @elonmusk No doubt that is impressive on paper, but a drive in that part of California is optimal conditions for that protocol. How will it do driving through the Sierra Nevadas in December, or The Rockies?
We shall see, I hope everyone succeeds.
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@Teocalifrank @Benioff @adcock_brett The point some of you are missing is that when this robot finishes this task, and can do something else (unlikely one that is purpose made to sort items).
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@Benioff @adcock_brett We already have sorting machine that do this 1,000 times faster. What's the point?
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@billybinion Charlie Kirk never hurt anyone. That committee severely damaged the United States without grounds, and he and the rest of that committee did know it.
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@billybinion I can understand and appreciate Trump's feeling that way after what happened to him. Certainly, if ever there was a reason to just fly feel that way, Trump has such grounds.
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If I were having to fly anywhere I'd be the most hostile & miserable person in that line.
Matt Van Swol@mattvanswol
🚨HOLY SMOKES!!! The TSA lines in Houston TX have now stretched to a mind-blowing 3 HOURS LONG!!!!! People are literally waiting in lines WRAPPED AROUND THE OUTSIDE OF THE AIRPORT!!!! THIS IS CRAZY!!!!!!!!!!!
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In a reasonable world, NOTHING should do more for TSLA than this war with Iran and the tie-up by a flood of oil.
Every wealthy person who drives will be running out to buy an EV within days.
@ray4tesla
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@SawyerMerritt You know that is insane, right? (Yes, my pocketbook is empty. But I’m certain that is insane.).
(Ps, that guy flying around making videos is going to need a bigger FDR drone!
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Holy moly, Tesla/SpaceX’s Terafab will be ~100 million square feet, which is 10X larger than the main Giga Texas building, which itself is ~1 mile long.
No wonder the Terafab won’t fit on the existing Giga Texas campus 🤯

Elon Musk@elonmusk
@pbeisel Yeah, 100M sq ft is the right order of magnitude
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@SidneyPowellQ I definitely hoped in my wildest dreams the DoE would be dissolved, but we need the teacher's unions gone, too.
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I cannot understand how anyone can be so out of touch as to assert Republicans have responsibility for this. It is plain as day that Democrats under the leadership of Schumer have 100%, direct responsibility for this mess.
Tim Hogan@timjhogan
this is what a federal government completely controlled by Republicans looks like
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