Real_Geopolitics

Somaliland’s unilateral declaration of independence is coming of age. It happened today 35 years ago. In those days, 18 May 1991, the north (waqooyi), as it was called, lay in ruins. Especially the Isaaq-dominated towns Hargeysa and Burco had been destroyed by the bombardments of the Somali government in 1988. The vast majority of the local Isaaq population had fled to Ethiopia or to the countryside in the north. Non-Isaaq, who constituted about one third of the regional population, mainly had fought on the side of the Somali government against the Isaaq-backed rebels of the Somali National Movement (SNM). They also had established their own clan militias to defend their clan-homelands. The situation in early 1991 was extremely volatile. On the one hand, the SNM leadership had agreed with other rebel groups in southern Somalia to topple the Somali government and to establish a democratic government in Mogadishu. On the other, after the dictatorship had been overthrown, the southern partners of the SNM, the United Somali Congress (USC) and the Somali Patriotic Movement (SPM), splintered and started fighting each other, which meant: civil war did not end in the south but was just about to enter a new and even more devastating phase. Against this backdrop, the northerners decided to distance themselves from this unfolding mess and, as second best option, declared independence (which was also the will of many Isaaq, but not of the SNM leadership and the non-Isaaq in the region). From there, Somaliland developed slowly, overcoming many internal hurdles, as de facto state. It features many hallmarks of a functioning state, at least in the centre. However, the reality is that the power of the government in Hargeysa for a very long time was confined to the Isaaq-inhabited territories, especially to Hargeysa and Berbera, and then later also Burco. Eventually the Gadabursi-inhabited lands in the west became integrated. But the vast eastern territories inhabited by Dhulbahante and Warsangeli never were fully controlled. In 2007, Somaliland forces captured the strategic town Lasanod in Dhulbahante lands. In 2018 the Somaliland forces marched briefly beyond Tukaraq and saw, for the first time ever (since 1991), the ex-colonial border between British and Italian Somaliland (created around 1896, dissolved upon independence in 1960). But Somaliland’s adventures in the east ended in mid-2023, when Dhulbahante, Fiqishiini and Gabooye militias (plus supporting forces from Majeerteen, Warsangeli, Deshishe and others) chased Somaliland troops out of their clan-homeland. Since then, a new border separating Somaliland from what is today the North-East State of Somalia was established between Oog (Isaaq) and Gumyas (Dhulbahante). Over the past two decades, Somaliland internally, in the centre and the west, has been developing considerably. Arriving today in Hargeysa feels like arriving in a proper East-African capital. The economy along the Berbera corridor is booming. But this is only half of the truth. The other half is: The legitimacy of Somaliland has been undermined and limited by the above mentioned dynamics. Its government never really controlled the east and it likely never will. The east is pro-Somalia. In the long term, a settlement between Somaliland-secessionists and Somalia-unionists will have to be found. It will be a delicate matter to negotiate since the young generation on both sides has been socialised with quite radical ideas. How can a compromise be found? Maybe be thinking out of the box and proposing a confederation that focusses on maximising economic and other benefits for all while fostering social integration through, e.g., student exchanges.

Eebe ha janneeyo Madaxweyne Mohamed Siyaad Barre❣️.

Happy 18th May to all Somalilanders! We celebrate with you in peace🎉