Skeptical Student of the Market

In Mediocristan with 1:2 R/R you need to be right more than 50% of the time, In Extremistan with 1:100 R/R you need to be right much less often for profitable trading. Seeing any bets with possibility of Extremistan payoffs? What's the fattest tail out there? Taleb said in an interview the payoff for his 1987 crash puts was around 80,000% if I remember correctly, so that's a 800x return on money. It made me realize how big the payoff can be in Extremistan and why daytrading with 1:2 R/R is noise. @Qullamaggie @PeterLBrandt @TechCharts @InvestorsLive @MarkRitchie_II @TedHZhang

Trading commentary Gaining skill in trading/investing is a commitment of time, energy, money and talent Successful market speculation is a gigantic endeavor of problem solving One hurdle after another One hurdle that I had in my early years was pulling the trigger It is a problem all successful trades at one time or the other must navigate

"Not seeing a tsunami or an economic event coming is excusable; building something fragile to them is not." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Antifragile

"Science to me is the study of truth and mathematics is the language of science and nature." @naval

"I am very rude to *high status* people who are rude to waiters/waitresses. Usually twice as rude. Sometimes three times, just to make sure. You cannot believe how many pple on the "left" are rude to waiters, as they feel their "mission" insulates them from humans."

The old question was, "when should I hire?" In 2026 it's, "what does a human have to do that AI can't do yet?" Most of what you think needs a person doesn't. Market research. First-draft copy. Customer support. Data analysis. Outreach. Content. SOPs. Financial modeling. Landing pages. Ad variations. Every one of those used to be a job. Now they're prompts. Here's the audit I'd run before you hire a single person. Copy this and paste it into Claude or ChatGPT.

I hired 1,300 people to build my last billion-dollar company. If I had to start over tomorrow, I'd hire zero. AI changed the math.

@GaryMarcus Since 50% of the game is marketing and sales and getting people to use your product, or finding good uses cases Shouldn't we give him credit for that ?

“Vibe coded disasters piling up on Reddit”

“The art of medicine consists of amusing the patient while nature cures the disease.”

"If you know, in the morning, what your day looks like with any precision, you are a little bit dead—the more precision, the more dead you are." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes amazon.com/gp/product/198…

"It is the appearance of inconsistency, and not its absence, that makes people attractive." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes

"I know that history is going to be dominated by an improbable event, I just don’t know what that event will be." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Many opportunitista's in investing are seeing how AI will fuel productivity gains via Jevon's Paradox in the future, on ther internet. By making work on the internet be so much faster, easier and cheaper and absolving humans of boring grunt work. The idea was first articulated by the English economist William Stanley Jevons in his 1865 book The Coal Question.

While the skeptic sees no opportunites, and sees only problems. The opportunist already logged in to his platform and took advantage of a few opprtunities. 😅👇 Buy my course how to go from blind, broke and without hope. To having vision, optimism and courage. Today only $995. Course linke below *link*

@NepWog @DouadyPrimers 😅👇 Gotcha Santosh, let me know if you need an illusion. Trading/investing Psychologist Coach here. Selling the illusion of certainty in a world where certainty is the biggest illusion ever. Find my consulting page by clicking this link below 👇 Linkedin profile

@SkepticalStud @DouadyPrimers I look at mean reversion and continuation trades. The magic is to determine market regime.

So many quants that are relying 100% on computer systems seem to be having the worst track records plus they are the least curious and have the least passion for the business. Am I right Santosh? Is this your experience as well? @DouadyPrimers ? I am someone who actually enjoy the game as a retail trader to not be doing this for money. I see myself as satisfied already, you can't deposit money to me to trade with, I say no. I have my own money to trade with. And I like being curious and solving the market like a puzzle, imagining the future, investing in what I believe in etc. I could sit and talk with a few friends like @ChrisCamillo on @DumbMoneyTV because I enjoy those conversations how some companies and some products may change the world. Get to this level to become a great investor, stay curious and stay passionate about the business, this is one of the most important things to learn rather than just learning technical analysis (dont get me wrong, technical anlaysis is a skill worth learning as well). 😀 cc @JamesMarsh79 @NonMeek @AmerAssaleh @ClaudioVirili @NepWog @pmontu33 @notacharlataan @mhib19q @DouadyPrimers

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Trading/investing Psychologist Coach here. Selling the illusion of certainty in a world where certainty is the biggest illusion ever. Find my consulting page by clicking this link below 😅 👇 Linkedin profile cc @NonMeek

“It is not so much what happens to you as how you think about what happens.”

If you weren't already insecure about money, weren't already closed off to every good idea, didn't already believe there's no company worth investing in, no one worth learning from, no way to improve yourself, and no product or service you could ever sell to anyone… …well, I sure hope you are now. I hope you feel insecure about money, have low self-esteem, and believe great opportunities simply don't exist. Because here — buy my $997 course. It's the solution to every problem you have. 😅 👇 Course link

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