SnarkyTrader

I wish I had the balls to leave a voicemail like this, someone didn’t take their meds. Listen till the end, it’s hilarious.

$TLT - Accumulation with Macro Fuel! After falling 55% from its 2020 high, $TLT has spent the last 18+ months basing. During that time, weekly volume is up 40–60% vs. the 2015–2019 average, a strong sign of institutional accumulation at depressed prices! Technically: - Price holding above the 2023 lows ($85–87) - Weekly RSI 40–45, no longer in bearish extremes - Downside momentum has stalled while volatility compresses. Macro: - Long yields have stopped making higher highs - Historically, when 10Y yields peak, TLT rallies 30–50% over the following cycle Targets - Base case: $115–120 (+30%+) - Bull case: $130–140 (+50%+) - Risk-off scenario: $140+ Hated asset, heavy volume and accumulation, flat price. That’s how bottoms are built, sentiment is turning and this will rip!

Hudson’s Bay once owned 5% of the Earth’s land surface and now it’s a kiosk in a Canadian Tire

Start of a long Seasonal window for nat gas as of today (courtesy Moore Research Center).

Steep contangos have often marked major bottoms in natural gas.   Here we are again.

Yesterday’s federal update focused on spending, projections, and promises. But households needed relief now. If growth slows and costs stay elevated, the next phase of this crisis won’t be announced in Ottawa. It’ll be felt at kitchen tables.

Housing Starts Expanding and Now Outpacing Population Growth, from Canada's Spring Economic Update 2026