DougC

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DougC

DougC

@SnowBlindTrek

Artic Tundra Katılım Ocak 2026
123 Takip Edilen18 Takipçiler
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GalaxyOne
GalaxyOne@galaxyoneapp·
@Windremac Glad to see GalaxyOne represented. The neobank ecosystem is rapidly evolving, so start your journey now at one.galaxy.app!
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DougC
DougC@SnowBlindTrek·
@SimonSaysBTC @novogratz @tether And Novogratz has been in crypto since Tether took its first breath. The two companies combined would be massive. Digital Assets, Financial Services, Gold Reserves, and AI/HPC infrastructure. The Tether Asian footprint combined with Galaxy’s US and UAE footprint would be huge.
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Simon
Simon@SimonSaysBTC·
@SnowBlindTrek @novogratz @tether We're going to need to see that full audit. 😅 On a serious note, it's not the craziest idea - Tether is a beast, and $GLXY offers legitimacy and a fully regulated institutional stack.
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Simon
Simon@SimonSaysBTC·
I know @novogratz has said that he intends to see the Helios buildout through, but I wonder if there is an offer to buy $GLXY that would be compelling enough to change his mind. Ran some numbers: HELIOS: $GLXY anticipates generating average annual revenue of more than $1 billion over the 15-yr term of $CRWV agreements. The 800 MW contracted capacity with $CRWV will generate approximately $1.2B annual revenue at ~90% margins, with first revenue expected any month now. $GLXY originally acquired Helios for just $65M in 2022, securing 1,500+ acres with 345kV infrastructure that would take competitors 5–8 years to replicate. Total approved capacity is now 1.6 GW, with only 800 MW committed to $CRWV - the LT strategy targets up to 3.5 GW of total power capacity. Comparable transaction: $WULF signed a 10-yr, $3.7 billion AI hosting contract with Fluidstack and Google, who took an 8% stake in the firm. For the contracted 800 MW / $1B+ annual revenue stream alone, using a 15–18x EBITDA multiple, on ~$900M of EBITDA (assuming the ~90% margin), you get a Helios value of roughly $13–16 billion for the contracted portion. Even at a conservative 10x EBITDA, you're at $9B just for the operating 800 MW. The uncontracted 830 MW of additional ERCOT-approved capacity is basically an option worth billions on its own, given that new entrants face a 3-yr power approval process in a greenfield development, and Helios's access to immediate power allows hyperscaler tenants to bypass this entirely. DIGITAL ASSET BANK: This is a fully built institutional crypto bank: OTC trading, derivatives, lending ($1.8B average loan book), staking, tokenization, custody, M&A advisory. Record adjusted gross profit in digital assets was $505 million in 2025, up ~67% YOY from 2024. Unknown potential with GalaxyONE, AllUnity partnership, and GK8. For a business doing $500M+ in gross profit and growing at 67% YOY, a 3-5x revenue multiple on a run-rate basis yields a stand-alone value of $4–7 billion for just this division. A strategic buyer like BNY Mellon, JP Morgan, Blackrock, or even Fidelity would probably pay a premium for the regulatory licenses, client relationships, and infrastructure. BALANCE SHEET: $GLXY ended 2025 with $11.3 billion in total assets, over $3 billion in equity capital, and $2.6 billion in cash and stablecoins. Net of the $8.3B in liabilities, the book equity is ~$3B. But this is understated, as much of the DA portfolio is marked at depressed Q4 2025 prices, and the Helios infrastructure is carried at cost, not at the FMV implied by the $CRWV contracts. The math is in the table. So what's a rational offer? At $18/share, the market is pricing $GLXY at roughly $7B MC, below the sum of its $3B book value plus the value of its contracted Helios cash flows alone. This is a significant dislocation. My view is that the FLOOR of any credible offer is $36-$50 ($36 isn't arbitrary - IYKYK). But base case fair value on a sum-of-the-parts basis is ~$65. Morningstar thinks it's $84 per. A buyer that picks up $GLXY at $50 is winning. Standard M&A acquisition premiums run 25–40% over market, but given the strategic scarcity value (you cannot replicate this in < 5–8 years), a strategic buyer would pay well above that. All of this assumes that the $CRWV contracts hold and Phase I delivery is successful, which all signs point to (thanks to @stefanvanderlux's DD). The first data hall is expected to be delivered in Q1 2026; execution risk is diminishing quickly. The closer Phase I comes to full revenue recognition, the more the market and any potential buyer can't ignore the valuation gap. What if 90% EBITDA margin on Helios is unrealistic and the number ends up being closer to 70-75%? A rational offer still lands around $44–$49/share, or 2.4 to 2.7x the current price of $18 per share. Given all of this, I've decided to continue to accumulate at current levels with a minimum 3-year timeframe. Hard to fathom $GLXY not exceeding a $30B market cap over this timeframe.
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The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets@scottmelker·
The entire point of crypto is to opt out of the banking system, not to negotiate away the best parts of this asset class and technology. Fuck the banks.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: Elon Musk is planning an unprecedented move for retail investors in the SpaceX IPO: Elon Musk is considering allocating up to 30% of SpaceX’s IPO to retail investors, far above the typical 5% to 10%, per Reuters. Under this plan, @ElonMusk looks to "tap loyal fans" in the upcoming IPO which could exceed $1.75 trillion in valuation. The plan includes a hands-on approach to banks, assigning firms specific roles rather than broad competition. Bank of America is expected to lead US retail distribution, alongside firms like Morgan Stanley and UBS. The biggest IPO in history is prioritizing retail.
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DougC
DougC@SnowBlindTrek·
@paoloardoino Check the box and reverse merge with Galaxy Digital so retail can get exposure to two beasts in one.
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DougC
DougC@SnowBlindTrek·
@novogratz @galaxyhq Tether planning to undergo an audit is a perfect setup for Galaxy to spinoff the Infrastructure/power into a public entity and reverse merge Galaxy Digital with Tether. Two distinctly different public entities is a win win.
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DougC
DougC@SnowBlindTrek·
@novogratz What’s your thought on your boy Drunkenmiller dismissing bitcoin and crypto in general?
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Mike Novogratz
Mike Novogratz@novogratz·
Every Israeli general and political leader has spent their career seeing the Iranian regime as an existential threat to their existence - and for good reason. They want this war to go on for a few more months so they finish the job of destroying the regime. Trump also wants this regime to fall or we wouldn’t have started this war. They miscalculated and didn’t plan well enough around Hormuz. From here the calculation is straight forward. If they can keep price of oil $85 or below the war will go on because markets won’t care. If they can’t Trump will end it and we will replay this scenario in 3-5 years. This is the first purely technological war the world has ever witnessed at scale. Its pretty damn scary when you think about it — Given where we are, at this point I hope Trump goes the distance and breaks the regime so something positive comes out of this. Just musing
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DougC
DougC@SnowBlindTrek·
@TheBlockCo Time for pitchforks and torches
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The Block
The Block@TheBlockCo·
Stand With Crypto stakeholders ramp up pressure on Senate Banking Committee on DeFi protections, stablecoin rewards theblock.co/post/393796/st…
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DougC
DougC@SnowBlindTrek·
@scottmelker It’s funny to me that professional traders and fund managers are always telling retail to leave their emotions out if the trade/investment, yet your contrarian guest always seems to be highly emotional
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Watcher.Guru
Watcher.Guru@WatcherGuru·
JUST IN: Elon Musk's xAI recruiting Wall Street bankers, portfolio managers, and traders to train Grok on financial modeling.
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DougC retweetledi
FluentInQuality
FluentInQuality@FluentInQuality·
Companies with a P/E below 20 and ROIC above 25%: $GLXY Galaxy Digital Inc. $MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation $APAM Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. $BTMD biote Corp. $PDD PDD Holdings Inc. $WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. $LULU lululemon athletica inc. $BNTX BioNTech SE $NVR NVR, Inc. $UTHR United Therapeutics Corporation $FUTU Futu Holdings Limited
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