George Miller

JUST IN 🇺🇸🇮🇷: U.S. Confirms 10 American Troops Injured and Refueling Aircrafts Damaged This corroborates the satellite images I shared this morning.

Israel has been systematically assassinating the civil defense personnel in Lebanon, like it did in Gaza

🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱 Why Gulf States Won’t Join the Iran War At its core, the Gulf states’ interest in the current war is not victory for any side, but regime survival (which is far from guaranteed) and strategic autonomy. The conflict has exposed a hard reality: reliance on external security guarantees, particularly from the United States, no longer ensures even the illusion of protection. Instead, it risks turning Gulf territory into a frontline without consent. As a result, GCC states are recalibrating seeking to avoid further kinetic retaliation from Iran made difficult by Israel bombing of Iran's steel plants today, protect economic lifelines essential for their fragile hold on power, and preserve room to manoeuvre between competing powers. This means accelerating self-reliance while quietly hedging through deeper ties with China. Gulf states are broadly aligned in refusing to attack Iran, knowing a wider war would mean catastrophe and that US bases have increasingly invited risk to the current fragile regimes rather than security. Gulf leaders have little appetite for joining what they see as Israel’s war. They remain deeply sceptical that the US can or will restrain Israel from further escalation. The primary security objective is clear: keep the war out. U.S. bases, once viewed as deterrents, are now increasingly seen as radioactive liabilities that invite retaliation. Even traditionally hawkish states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are signalling caution in spite of bellicose rhetoric, prioritising de-escalation over alignment. Uninterrupted oil and gas flows remain existential. Refinery shutdown risks, LNG production disruptions, shipping instability, and force majeure declarations have already strained budgets and complicated long-term development plans such as Saudi's Vision 2030. Short-term price spikes benefit exporters such as Russia, but volatility threatens the diversification strategies these states see as essential to their future. De-dollarisation and deeper Asian ties through Belt and Road integration, energy trade with China, and petroyuan discussions are gaining momentum as hedges against American decline and unpredictability. Strong public opposition to Israel’s actions in Gaza also constrains leaders. Saudi Arabia continues to condition any normalization on a credible Palestinian state based on 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital. The Abraham Accords remain effectively in suspended animation. Qatar continues its mediation role, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia are positioning themselves for influence through post-war Gaza reconstruction funding. The conflict reinforces a need for GCC pragmatism — balancing relations between the US, China, Russia, and Iran. The Saudi-Iran rapprochement before the war reflected a clear regional desire for calm rather than open conflict. Ties with Beijing increasingly serve as a counterweight to Washington’s prioritisation of Israel. At the same time, quiet differences are emerging beneath the surface. Some Gulf states favour strict neutrality such as Oman and possibly Qatar, others lean toward Washington for security guarantees (Saudi/UAE). If the war expands, these differing threat calculations could test GCC cohesion and force individual states to prioritise national survival over bloc unity. The majority of Gulf states are signalling resistance to escalation rather than support for Washington’s war. Analysts, including former US adviser Vali Nasr, have noted the growing perception that American bases may have increased Gulf exposure to conflict rather than reduced it: “The only thing American bases have invited for the Gulf countries is risk and war.” Which is a fairly basic but accurate assessment.

🇮🇷 3 container ships tried to enter the Strait of Hormuz this morning. All 3 were intercepted by the IRGC and forced to reverse confirmed by via maritime tracking data. The IRGC statement was surgical: “Following the lies of the corrupt US president claiming the strait was open” three ships turned back. Lloyd’s List confirms Iran has now installed a de facto toll booth, charging ships up to $2 million per transit, settled in yuan. That burned hull in the video kept reigniting for weeks. That’s the alternative to paying.

🇮🇷🇮🇱 This is Beit Shemesh (west of Jerusalem). Echoing the appocalyptic hellscape that much of Israel has been reduced to from Haifa to much of Tel Aviv to Arad and Dimona. Iran clobbered Israel but remember who started this.. the Epstein coalition and who is finishing it, Iran. It never had to be this way...

NOW - Trump: "Cuba is next, by the way. But pretend I didn't say that, please."

🇮🇷 3 container ships tried to enter the Strait of Hormuz this morning. All 3 were intercepted by the IRGC and forced to reverse confirmed by via maritime tracking data. >>>> Read on >>