Spooked Equine

@FreightAlley You are underestimating the ability of Armenian men to build made to fail shell companies.

A CEO of a mega fleet just sent me this statement about how broker culture is going to be ripped apart for plantiffs attorneys

@chlosiphus Our crib has never been used 🤷‍♂️

Honestly just send me your ancestry dna results and I’ll tell you whether you should cosleep

@biancoresearch Where is the lie?

Desperately seeking a pardon

Are the ships going north to Europe or south to Asia?

@DickMissle @INArteCarloDoss 🙄 yes because if we hit the oil infra on Kharg the beneficiaries of Kharg oil would have no reason to pressure Iran… hence why we hit an Iranian rent a cop on a Segway

@SpookedEquine @INArteCarloDoss Not true. This was a strike on Iran military structures o Kharg Island.

Just how dumb is Trump? Brent => > $ 200 If he does hit the oil infra, IRGC will burn down all the oil infra in the ME US needs some adults to run this show urgently

@novogratz They finna hallucinate me a refund

In a few years the IRS will have millions of Ai agents auditing all of our taxes. Think about that.

@Gentleman_Ways @EvaLovesDesign Easily done irl:

(Image: The Corsi Collection)

@blknoiz06 Coinbugs rekt

every time i look at the gold chart next to the bitcoin chart i get viscerally angry

@DeItaone Cut off their LNG and all future funds to Ukraine.

EU READIES TRADE “BAZOOKA” AGAINST US TARIFF THREATS French President Emmanuel Macron plans to urge the EU to use its “anti-coercion instrument” if President Donald Trump imposes new tariffs over Greenland, AFP reported. The rarely used trade tool would allow the bloc to restrict imports of goods and services in response to economic pressure on EU exports.

@BittelJulien @RealVision More like decoupling started in early Q2 2025 and got worse in early Q3 2025. Both Qs had large liquidation events

I posted this earlier in the week on @RealVision, but thought it was worth sharing here as well, just to give everyone something to think about. If you step back and look at the data, something interesting is happening in markets right now… When you line up liquidity with equities, you get this (chart 1).   And then compare that with the same liquidity measure versus Bitcoin (chart 2), a simple truth emerges: Both cannot be right...   Either equities are fundamentally mispricing liquidity despite trading near record highs, or Bitcoin is correctly signaling that the liquidity cycle has already peaked and that risk assets are about to roll over. Only one of these outcomes can ultimately be correct.   Now let’s separate data from opinion for a moment...   The data is clear: Global liquidity has not yet peaked.   Now to my subjective view…   I think Bitcoin remains the outlier here, and that the events around 10/10 temporarily distorted price discovery, for reasons I’ve discussed at length previously.    Equities, credit, and broader risk assets are behaving exactly as you would expect in a rising liquidity regime. They’re hovering near all-time highs...   Bitcoin, by contrast, is pricing a liquidity peak that the data simply does not support at this stage.   At some point you have to step back and ask: Is it more likely that one asset is right, or that every other BTC-correlated risk asset is wrong (chart 3)?   If you then layer in broader financial conditions, it stops being about opinion and becomes more about probabilities (chart 4). What really stands out to me is the sheer magnitude of the “Excess Fear Gaps” that have opened up relative to the macro and liquidity fundamentals.   Right now, the weight of the evidence suggests liquidity is still rising and, in our view, will continue to rise, and that is what risk assets are reflecting.   That means Bitcoin is the anomaly.   What I’ve done here is present the data objectively and my view subjectively.   This is the battlefield for 2026.   The bull versus bear debate comes down to one thing and one thing only: The direction of global liquidity...

Channeling my inner Byron Wein. Here are some predictions that are unlikely but I think will come true in 2026. They each are related to the number 5 US Ten year yield hits 5% SPX goes below 6000 (5 thousand handle) Bitcoin goes below 60,000 (50,000 handle) Gold goes above 5,000

@TheDegenDoc @BrianSuttererMD A PT dropped my lung by leaving the needles in my upper trap and then adding estim. Not sure if needles + estim is common practice

Really unfortunate if that’s the case, I mean it’s the one thing that is hammered over & over again in every TDN class It also isn’t usually just a lack of technique but also needle size & location I have a fairly conservative treatment approach & don’t go for much of the “hotness” in treatment gizmos/gadgets but TDN is one intervention I have found to be very effective for my Soldiers Takes a large amount of negligence to cause such a severe problem, eager to hear more about how this Watt case happened & ultimately just hoping he’s okay!

If this ends up being another dropped lung from some dry needling….

@BrianSuttererMD @Purpman123 My right lung dropped from upper trap dry needling 😑

@Purpman123 Yea upper trap seems to be a consensus place it’s been seen

@JamesEastonUK @RuminantCow I mean.. it is underperforming dogwifhat where the true tech is.. hard to DCA in $SUI with the monthly token unlocks into a bear market.. it would be solid for both @SuiNetwork and @RaoulGMI to explain the tokenomics.. it looks like a $0 given the aforementioned

@RuminantCow Only if we dip lower. Currently positioned heavily.

I think we are at a very pivotal moment in the cycle. People are on edge, both with nerves & panic. Everyone is calling for lower, even bulls want lower entries. Something I have learned here however, is it’s far better to act with a solid thesis sooner, rather than later. Of course we all WANT the best possible entry, but wait too long & you can miss the move altogether. The market doesn’t give a f*ck what you want. It just moves. My exact plan, as of now, is to continue DCA’ing into my core portfolio & wait. Is it the exact bottom? I don’t know, frankly, I don’t care. If it goes lower, greater discounts. When the turn eventually comes, it will be the patient & those with a plan who get rewarded. Remain grounded in your approach & ruthless in your execution. There’s a bull run coming & I refuse to miss it.

@AnnaGorisch This is super based. She is right. White men should build not bitch.

@NateSilver538 @jarvis_best Bruh 😆

@jarvis_best They're too busy burning American Eagle jeans at socially distanced bonfires to have noticed that the shutdown ended.

What’s the mood on Bluesky?

@onechancefreedm @AndreasSteno Are the AI hallucinations in the room with us right now?

This isn’t goalpost shifting, it’s just how the system actually works, and the Fed’s own research backs it up. The New York Fed and the BIS have both shown that SOFR and repo rates often start moving a week or two before major liquidity events like year end balance sheet reporting, big Treasury settlements, or TGA swings. These markets don’t wait for the date..desks have to pre fund and clear space ahead of time. With QT ending on Dec 1, the Fed isn’t letting Treasuries roll off anymore, it’s rolling that cash into new T bill purchases. That means more reserves and more collateral flow. Dealers and money funds know that, so they’re already rolling term repo, bidding bills, and positioning for it. SOFR’s drop is the market pricing in that liquidity shift early, just like it does before every major balance sheet event. 🤗

SOFR’s Drop Is The Market Front Running the Fed That sharp plunge in SOFR is the money markets reacting before the headlines. The system is already adjusting to what’s now effectively policy: the Fed cutting twice this fall, announcing an end to balance sheet runoff on December 1, and redirecting maturing assets toward the short end of the curve. Liquidity is being rerouted. And that change matters. What’s Actually Happening SOFR, the rate for borrowing cash overnight against Treasuries, just collapsed because there’s suddenly more cash than collateral. That’s what happens when the Fed stops shrinking its balance sheet and starts reinvesting every maturing security. Reserves rise, collateral gets absorbed, and the cost of short term money drops. The Fed isn’t expanding its balance sheet, but it’s changing what it holds: •Treasuries: Every maturing note will now be rolled over, freezing the size of the portfolio and halting QT. •MBS: Mortgage holdings will be allowed to run off, with proceeds redirected into Treasury bills, the most liquid assets in the world. •Result: The balance sheet stops shrinking, but its liquidity velocity increases. That’s not QE by name, but it acts like it. How It Ripples Through the System Front End (Bills & Repo) With the Fed buying T bills, collateral scarcity disappears. Dealers find funding easier, repo rates (and SOFR) drop, and short term yields sink toward the floor of the policy range. The one to three month space becomes the new carry trade. Banks & Funding Cheaper overnight money eases funding stress and cushions balance sheets. Liquidity ratios look healthier. But easy funding always reignites leverage…basis trades, structured credit, and synthetic duration quietly return. Credit & Risk Assets Lower funding costs tighten credit spreads and boost valuations. It’s not a full blown stimulus, but it behaves like one. Corporates refinance, junk issuance rises, and equity multiples expand on the illusion of easier conditions. Housing & Mortgages The Fed’s pivot away from MBS means mortgage rates won’t follow the front end down one for one. Refinancing improves slightly, but housing won’t get the same liquidity tailwind. The liquidity flow is going to markets, not Main Street. Long End of the Curve The 20 and 30 year yields holding near 4.7% reveal the underlying truth…fiscal supply remains massive, inflation expectations sticky, and global buyers cautious. The short end can ease, but the long end keeps reminding us where the real strain sits. The Calm Is Manufactured Dropping repo rates look like stability, but this calm is engineered. The Fed isn’t stimulating demand, it’s suppressing stress. By managing where liquidity goes rather than how much there is, the system stays orderly on the surface while leverage quietly expands beneath it. Markets love this version of control. Funding gets cheap, volatility fades, and asset prices levitate. But it’s not organic growth, it’s sedation. What To Expect Next •An anchored front end around 4%, as T bill demand absorbs new supply. •Rising hidden leverage, more carry trades and balance sheet stretching. •Falling cash yields, the 5% era for money market funds is ending. •A softer dollar. cheaper U.S. funding trims its global carry premium. The Bottom Line SOFR’s drop is the first tremor of a familiar pattern: re-liquifying the system without saying it out loud. It stabilizes markets, props up valuations, and stretches the cycle but it doesn’t fix the imbalance beneath it. Liquidity always feels like safety on the way in. But underneath, it’s still leverage waiting for a spark.

@profplum99 What about the 20 years where you can invest 100% of principal and interest….

An explanation worth framing. This may very well be the Trump admin calculus.

@mikealfred @JoshMandell6 I have a 17h Hanoverian for sale. $160,000. Amazing jump.

@JoshMandell6 Kentucky

Earlier in the cycle, I published a MSTR and MSTR-option-only portfolio. Initially, it was entirely long, then shifted to short with in-the-money covered call sales as I predicted Bitcoin would hit 84K. I suggested that Bitcoin would rally from that point. These moves worked out well enough, but I grew impatient with my final call for 444K, and as they say, you're only as good as your last call. I take offense at comparisons to Fred and others who claim I stood to profit by issuing coins or misleading investors. To be transparent, I am sharing my personal loss from this poorly conceived trade. I’m offline today, shopping for horses, because thankfully, I didn’t bet the farm.