Stats

@leevalueroach And calling it arbitrage is misleading. Arbitrage means a risk-free pricing mismatch; this is leverage backed by expected, not certain, returns. If investments succeed, equity wins; if they fail, equity takes the hit.

@leevalueroach They aren’t “shorting the dollar” The company is betting that: - it will remain solvent, - its cash flows will cover interest, - the investments or buybacks will create value, - borrowing today is preferable to raising equity. Inflation may help, but it’s not the core thesis.

Pretty good take. Lever up. Own cheap debt for the longest duration as possible and it allows you to short the currency. Greatest business model and arbitrage opportunity in the world. This is why you don’t use variable rate loans on real estate.

@CurryHicksSage 2016 nostalgia I love it 😍

Why do we have a chain smokers concert right now? Who is this for?

@igloobamboo @Mrbankstips @WarpSpeedcrypto The movie is “W”. Not “Body of Lies” youtu.be/VmwM9EXyczw?si…

@Mrbankstips @WarpSpeedcrypto Just for those with goldfish memory, here's how you find out it's a redub

This aired in 2008. You don’t really know what you think you know.

Hello from Khiva, Uzbekistan! 🇺🇿

TWO BID MAC TWO BID MAC TWO BID MAC TWO BID MAC TWO BID MAC TWO BID MAC TWO BID MAC

If you didn't think that UMass would do infinitely more harm than good to their conference's chances to be a multi bid league by knocking off the only remaining undefeated team in the nation in the 1st round of the conference tourney then you are unfamiliar with their game 🏀

DOWN GOES MIAMI (OH) 😱 UMass takes down the formerly undefeated RedHawks in the MAC quarterfinals 👀

@JohnBoudet @BCipnic @NaturalWay_NLR @AnnCoulter Which is precisely why tariffs should be calibrated to the price elasticity of the specific good, rather than applied broadly based solely on country of origin.

@BCipnic @NaturalWay_NLR @AnnCoulter It will vary by industry. Specialized Widget Co. may be able to pass along the whole tariff. A wine importer, by contrast, might not because they’re competing with domestic wines.

The No. 1 argument against tariffs is IT'S A TAX! Corporations simply pass the cost on to consumers!! But now the corporations want the government to "refund" the tariffs they paid, which everyone tells me they already passed onto consumers.

@jasooo @theallinpod @Jason @chamath These morons have no solution for humans, because their wealth, they believe, is proof they are above this threat to the rest of humanity. They don’t make money by selling their labor. Therefore a threat to this form of income is of no concern to them. They’re foolish.

So AI agents are eventually going to cost more than human capital will (without even factoring in the impending power grid cost problem) similar to how stacking 3-4 streaming services now costs more than traditional cable services do at this point. Except unlike streaming, the danger of removing millions of humans from the workforce will likely create more wealth consolidation for the top 1%, while simultaneously gutting the middle and lower classes ability to work. Do you guys see a universal income as a solution to offset the use of AI? Or what is the long term solution for humans?

What Happens When AI Tokens Cost More Than Your Employees? @Jason: “We, with our agents, hit $300/day per agent using the Claude API, like instantly. And that was doing, maybe, 10 or 20%. That's $100k/year per agent.” @chamath: “We're getting to a place where we have to basically now say, ‘What is the token budget that we're willing to give our best devs?’” “And then if you aggregate it across all people, you can clearly see a trend where you're like, ‘Well, hold on a second, now they need to be at least 2x as productive as another employee.’” “That is actively happening inside my business, because otherwise I'll run out of money.” Jason: “Yeah. This is a very interesting trend that you're not going to hear anybody else talk about, but when do tokens outpace the salary of the employee?” “Because you're about to hit it. I'm about to hit it.”

@delk Is NYC not in the 90th percentile of cost of living in this country? On the question of we can afford it, is NYC not in the 90th percentile of taxable real estate and income?

NYC's proposed K-12 education budget translates to $42,000/student — which is ~90th percentile private school tuition in the US.

Jeff Bezos is spending $200 billion on AI and robotics. Jeff Bezos is replacing hundreds of thousands of his workers at Amazon with robots. Jeff Bezos owns the Washington Post. What a surprise. The Washington Post doesn’t want a moratorium on AI data centers.

@GeorgeE33179 @StatisticUrban But isn’t that the entire point? That agriculture is what enables further division of labor to industry which enables further division of labor to services

Farming in “traditional and indigenous methods” sucks complete and total ass. We should NOT go back to a world where 90% of the population are subsistence farmers.

domain: $70M 1 minute superbowl ad: $15M forgetting to turn on autoscaling right before launch: priceless

@Tig0l8Bitties @SadSonya4 @KyleKulinski Are you making him out to be some hero? This is fucking nasty ass twisted evil shit

@SadSonya4 @KyleKulinski What if the final straw was Elon getting mad and did burning the whole thing to the ground just because he didn't get invited lmao. The most entertaining outcome.

THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ARE GOING TO THE SUPER BOWL!!!!!

@YourMomDave1 @RHietpas @RadioFreeStPaul @TiagoDias_VC @ArmandDoma @Aella_Girl @mattyglesias Why does no land sale take place? Why is it effectively leasing? Isn’t this only true in the strict Georgist sense of 100% rate LVT? In practice, most proposals are single digit rates. Here the land is the present value of future rents, after taxes.

You can assess property by just adding together materials, labor, overhead, and permitting costs along with depreciation. Subtract that from sale price and you get land value. But that means you need the land to actually sell. In a LVT regime you're effectively leasing/renting out the land, meaning no land sale takes place. So you can't assess the land value the same way you normally would.

the best wealth tax is a land value tax because land literally cannot leave lol

@RealJimRickards @VladTheInflator I may not understand the export accounting, but wouldn’t only show as an export if an American seller sold their gold to a foreign buyer? This would not include transfers of holdings to foreign banks.

The U.S. trade deficit went down. That's good for GDP. But a big part of the reason was huge gold exports. What does it say when gold is leaving the U.S. in record amounts? Is the short-term boost revealing a long-term collapse?

@JohnWake That’s an interesting point, I assumed they got households from tax or census records. Interesting that it’s tied to housing units. FRED gives some helpful notes, pointing to Home Vacancy Survey Rate fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USHVAC

@StatsMass I've heard people complain the number of "households" is dependent on the number of housing units. Population doesn't have that complication.

It's a myth that U.S. housing supply is short X million. Simply divide total housing units by population. We've never had more housing per person. The problem is demand is FAR, FAR, FAR more sensitive to prices (price elasticity) than supply.

@JohnWake It also isn’t useful to include housing capacity in areas that are weak economically. People move for jobs. This metric could show a balance nationally, while regionally we have excess capacity in weak areas and tight capacity in strong areas.

@JohnWake Don’t think it would change the story, but wouldn’t it be more accurate dividing total housing units by number of households? If households are smaller than in the past, we’d need more housing units for the same population.