MAR

283 posts

MAR

MAR

@Stl_MAR

Missouri, USA Katılım Kasım 2013
724 Takip Edilen314 Takipçiler
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MAR@Stl_MAR·
@ACapitalLP @atelicinvest $NTIP 5 pending IP trials Google Samsung Citadel Jump Optiver. private bio stake w phase 3 funded. Trades below net cash. Recent positive developments on Google / Samsung. 4 of 5 cases have 2027 trial dates set. Boring but multiple ways to win, low downside risk add me ty
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A Capital
A Capital@ACapitalLP·
Starting a special sits chat - ping me with your best idea to get added.
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MAR@Stl_MAR·
@TimyanBankAlert @Catahoula_Value Thanks, I need to add a closely held factor into the model! $TBBA also came in pretty high on the prediction model but I haven’t dug in there yet either.
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Timyan Bank Alert
Timyan Bank Alert@TimyanBankAlert·
Home run merger for $PSBQ holders in sale to $BFC
Timyan Bank Alert tweet mediaTimyan Bank Alert tweet media
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MAR@Stl_MAR·
@evfcfaddict I think it’s high quality , but short term beware rising fuel costs which are a large component of variable costs for cement production in general
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Andy
Andy@evfcfaddict·
My favorite large cap atm: - CEO with great track record (17% cagr when at sika/holcim) buying like crazy - huge buybacks - supply<demand - oligopoly (monopoly in some regions) - biggest player - DD EPS growth for years to come - S&P passive flows NTM - <10x ev/ebitda $AMRZ
Insider Monkey@insidermonkey

$1.4M Insider Buy: $AMRZ Chairman and CEO Jan Jenisch bought 28,417 shares on May 15 for $1.4M at an average of $49.53 (purchase made in CHF at 39.05). Direct post-buy stake: 1,724,999 shares. Plus 512,000 indirect via spouse. Total beneficial: ~2.24M shares (~$111M). Jenisch is one of the most credentialed building materials operators in the world. He was CEO of Sika 2012-2017, where he led the company into the Swiss Market Index. He then served as CEO of Holcim 2017-2024 and Chairman 2023-2025, transforming it into an industry-leading-margin business. He led the Amrize spin-off from Holcim in June 2025 and remains Chairman and CEO. 12+ year track record running SMI-listed building materials companies. Amrize is the former North American operations of Holcim, spun off in June 2025. The company is the #1 cement producer in North America with 19,000 employees and ~$12B+ in expected 2026 revenue. Two segments: Building Materials (cement, aggregates, ready-mix concrete, asphalt - ~70% of revenue) and Building Envelope (roofing and exterior systems - ~30%). End-market mix: 51% commercial, 28% infrastructure, 21% residential. Dual-listed on NYSE and SIX Swiss Exchange. Q1 2026 (April 29) showed the bifurcated story: Building Materials revenue +12.9% with adj EBITDA +41.7% and margin +230bps - driven by accelerating commercial demand from data centers and energy projects, double-digit cement and aggregates volume growth, and the PB Materials acquisition (West Texas aggregates leader, closed February 18). The Building Envelope (roofing) segment was the drag - revenue -9.8%, adj EBITDA -37.1% on soft roofing demand. Stock dropped 5% on the print. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance (revenue +4-6%, adj EBITDA +8-11%), announced a $1B buyback to begin post-Q1, declared a first quarterly dividend of $0.11 plus a special $0.44 dividend, and pointed to roofing volume recovery in H2 2026 as commercial projects that started in 2025 convert to envelope work. ~50% of IIJA infrastructure funding still to be deployed, commercial construction accelerating into data center and energy buildout, conservative 1.7x net leverage. Jenisch is buying 2 weeks after the post-Q1 dip with his entire 12-year operating record at building materials companies behind him.

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MAR@Stl_MAR·
@TimyanBankAlert @Catahoula_Value Any thoughts on $TRCY as a takeout candidate? I haven't dug too far into it (yet) but i'm working on a little m& prediction model that suggests First American, Byline, or North Shore would be the most likely acquirers.
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Timyan Bank Alert
Timyan Bank Alert@TimyanBankAlert·
@Catahoula_Value It feels like $BCOW management would rather continue stealing from the shareholders. $LRBI is performing well on its own and improving so not needed. Sure does spotlight the values though. $MBBC also in $PSBQ backyard where Nick Z is really improving his bank.
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MAR@Stl_MAR·
@OurBank3 After adjusting for a wee bit of noise, the last couple quarters are, shall I say, intriguing. Didn’t know if they did buybacks - thanks for sharing!
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Our Bank
Our Bank@OurBank3·
@Stl_MAR Likely no as they do not answer phone calls. Well, the last son in law CEO answered but quickly hung up when he learned I was a non local investor. The buybacks and always cheap stock has kept me long for many years.
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MAR@Stl_MAR·
$EXCH any of my fellow bank geeks on here the resident expert on Exchange Bancshares (Milledgeville, GA)?
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MAR@Stl_MAR·
@RandolphDuke7 I believe the majority of GMEs profit is interest income on their cash pile (not operating profits), so chop down those earnings expectations because the cash is required to pay for the deal
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Randolph Duke 🇺🇸
Randolph Duke 🇺🇸@RandolphDuke7·
Ryan Cohen is super annoying and I don't know why he thinks EBAY shareholders would do this. But these are the mechanics on this toy model I made. Tell me where I've gone wrong (and not the premise that sometimes people accept stupid ideas). Cohen isn't technically wrong, IMO.
Randolph Duke 🇺🇸 tweet media
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MAR@Stl_MAR·
@e_pap4 Yes, several, but liquidity is an issue. If you want to own more, it's hard to tweet about 'em. many have huge bid/ask spreads and don't trade for days or weeks. Of OTCs with decent liquidity, I'd throw out $CBKM as one I like. Happy to take DMs on specific tickers
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Elias P
Elias P@e_pap4·
Going through the OTC I've found a bunch of tiny community banks with pristine balance sheets that grow equity value every year, pay 5% dividends and buy back stock, and trade at 30-40% discounts to book. I think this group will perform very well over the next few years.
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MAR@Stl_MAR·
@ChairliftCap Wait you guys are investing in OTC community banks too?
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Chairlift Capital
Chairlift Capital@ChairliftCap·
Can't remember another time when every single market participant was so confidently and aggressively in the same trade
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MAR@Stl_MAR·
@everyonehatesp1 I’ve found there is such illiquidity in micro banks, they don’t lend well to fintwit below a certain market cap. folks who know most can’t share broadly while actively building positions. I make friends and exchange alpha on DMs. Happy to chat if you have an idea to bounce!
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everyonehatespoetry
everyonehatespoetry@everyonehatesp1·
Who are the best bank microcap investors you guys know? Would love to better understand that space.
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MAR@Stl_MAR·
@Ron284Ron But did they pivot to AI, Ron? 😅
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Ronbo
Ronbo@Ron284Ron·
OK Everyone is either asleep on vacation disgusted with the market or I don't know what. But only 1 like on $NSYC agreeing to make a sale of its properties. C'mon! That's the best song & dance I have.
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Eugene H Krabs
Eugene H Krabs@Mr__Krabs___·
@WaterworldCapi1 I asked the guy taking the jobs, he said it’s rational and he can replace all igv trash, lol
Eugene H Krabs tweet media
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Admiral Waterworld
Admiral Waterworld@WaterworldCapi1·
The stock price action in software is truly bizarre at this point. Doesn't mean it's totally wrong or a bottom but does feel kind of indescriminate.
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MAR@Stl_MAR·
@dirtcheapbanks they actually pay 15c quarterly dividends plus an annual special div. but you wouldn't know it from looking at otcmarkets because the bank apparently doesn't report it to them.
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Dirt Cheap Banks
Dirt Cheap Banks@dirtcheapbanks·
Bank in West Virginia trading at 46 cents on tangible book. $363M in assets, $19M market cap. The math doesn't make sense until you remember most people have never heard of West Virginia, let alone want to own a bank there.
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small_caps_automated
small_caps_automated@SmallCapSmarts·
Where are people still getting price improvement in small caps? Moomoo, IB, Schwab? Tried Schwab and IB. Fills were absolute shit.
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MAR@Stl_MAR·
@daniconde03 @SmallCapSmarts don’t use for shorts, mine is an IRA. cost structure may differ for taxable accts? No direct foreign stocks like IBKR. No commissions on US exchanges including US OTC (huge). Low commish on options. Some random foreign US OTCs do have crazy commissions so I avoid
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MAR@Stl_MAR·
@mt_levalley @MaxfieldOnBanks Ask some farmers and ranchers in rural Kansas how banking functions with their businesses. In both cases there are large gaps between expenditures and revenues, making local banks pretty helpful. Not everyone with a small farm or ranch can or should bank with JP Morgan.
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Max LeValley
Max LeValley@mt_levalley·
agree to disagree I guess. the stats are there. I'm from rural kansas and it's an open secret that community lending is no longer a core function. Why would anyone take a bet on a local business when they could just hold it in reserve for a proprietary, guaranteed rate, or, better yet, make riskier investments (carrying higher potential returns) confident the government/taxpayer will cover the gap.
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Maxfield on Banks
Maxfield on Banks@MaxfieldOnBanks·
As many know, I travel this country, often at my family’s personal expense, to advocate on behalf of banking. All the purported “advocates” do so for paychecks and paid lunch hours. I do it because it’s the right thing to do. It’s my family’s way of serving our country.
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MAR@Stl_MAR·
@evfcfaddict thanks for the explanation, they are on my list for a deeper dive
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Andy
Andy@evfcfaddict·
@Stl_MAR $BRBR is even more dependend on (now elevated) protein prices. The market is difficult-that’s the reason $FTLF can buy great brands cheap from struggling comps. It’s 100% not an operators problem. When the consumer improves + protein prices normalize, they should benefit a lot.
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Andy
Andy@evfcfaddict·
People seem to struggle to zoom out a few quarters here. After yesterdays call I continue to be very optimistic long term. Dayton is one of a kind but looking at my portfolio there seems to be a general downtrend in extremely well managed microcaps-finally great use for my cash.
Andy@evfcfaddict

Just doubled my $FTLF position, 31% Cash left

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Keşfet

@ACapitalLP @atelicinvest @TimyanBankAlert @Catahoula_Value @evfcfaddict @OurBank3 @RandolphDuke7 @e_pap4