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Niels - Stocksalute
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Niels - Stocksalute
@Stocksalute
Helping you decode the stock market • Investor • Photoshop pro • Pub quiz champ • Fun facts • Headline hunter • No financial advice.
The Netherlands Katılım Ocak 2024
392 Takip Edilen1.3K Takipçiler

@FlippieFinance Will be interesting how Netflix earnings will go this week.
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Good morning, it's time to build!
If there are any marketers in my Twitter circle, you've got my respect 🫡
Your minds work in incredible ways to come up with ideas like this:
Back in the 1990s, before launching the very first PlayStation, Sony realized that traditional TV advertising wasn't connecting with young people. So they came up with a brilliant move: they secretly partnered with top nightclubs in London and Tokyo, setting up PlayStation gaming areas inside the darkest, most exclusive VIP rooms reserved for DJs and influencers.
Getting into those rooms was nearly impossible. The console quickly gained an aura of exclusivity, and within a month, the global club scene was promoting the PlayStation organically, without a single paid poster

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$IBM put out preliminary Q2 numbers this morning, 8 days ahead of its scheduled print.
Companies do that when the gap between what the market expects and what actually happened is too big to leave standing.
IBM gave both numbers. On its own accounting, profit per share fell 2%. Strip out the charges it asks you to look past, and it rose 5%. Same three months.
Those charges grew by 17 cents a share this year. That growth is the entire difference between the decline and the increase.
Underneath, the business sold about as much as last year and made no more money doing it. Whatever improvement is left came from spending less, not from selling more.
IBM says it knew the z17 mainframe cycle was wrapping this quarter, but Z fell harder than planned and the software attached to it came up short.
Clients spent late June budgets on servers and memory ahead of price increases. And large deals didn't close on time, which IBM says drove most of the shortfall.
In April, IBM guided to more than 5% growth this year at constant currency. This letter carries no full year number. That comes July 22.
Does this change how you see IBM?
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$NOW Sheesss Back on support to give us the $102 entry once again??
This $IBM news making the whole sector nuke somehow.
Lets see the reaction before bidding

Moose@Brownmoose
$NOW Hopefully the market is kind enough to give me a retest here and second entry at the support ✅ This trade was 2 days long and +7% profit. I like giving those quick profit secure one to the crew!
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Good morning 𝕏 friends ☕️!!!!
Just 13 hours ago I hit 1K followers, woke up and couldn’t believe I’m at 2.2K followers 😂 this is absolutely incredible!
Thank you to everyone following and shout out again to the legends @Brownmoose and @HunterAllen4! Worth a sub everyday!

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IBM down 22% in premarket trading. This is what happens when your company is increasingly run by H-1B labor.
Aravind Krishna: "We did not adapt and move quickly enough, and numerous large deals failed to close on the timeliness we expected."
Krishna also blamed his customers buying servers, memory, and storage for the shortfall.
Earnings were $660 million dollars less than expected and EPS was nearly 3% less than expected.
The stock is touching 1 year lows on the earnings and comments by Krishna.

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@HunterAllen4 @EarningsBrief Interesting, never heard of this company.
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$OLLI
Down 48% over the past year.
While up at 4:30 digging through consumer names $CELH one company kept standing out.
Everyone watches $WMT $TGT $COST $DG.
I’m watching $OLLI.
Here’s why.
Unlike Walmart or Target, Ollie’s doesn’t try to stock everything.
Its business model is built around buying closeout, excess, discontinued, and packaging-change inventory directly from manufacturers at massive discounts, then passing those savings on to customers through its “treasure hunt” shopping experience.
That sourcing advantage has produced gross margins many discount retailers would love to have.
The numbers continue to ramp:
• Q1 FY26 net sales: $658.9M (+14.2% YoY)
• Adjusted EPS: $0.91 (+21.3% YoY)
• Gross margin: 41.9% (+80 bps YoY)
• Adjusted EBITDA: +22% YoY
• Comparable sales: +1.7%, driven primarily by higher average basket sizes
• FY26 revenue guidance: $2.98B-$3.00B
• Raised FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.45-$4.55
Growth isn’t coming from financial engineering.
It’s coming from expansion.
• 672 stores across 35 states
• Roughly 15% store growth YoY
• 75 new stores planned during FY26
• Acquired 60+ former Big Lots locations, accelerating expansion at attractive lease economics
The loyalty flywheel keeps getting stronger.
Ollie’s Army grew to approximately 17.5 million members (+13% YoY).
Those members generate 80%+ of total sales and spend roughly 40% more than non-members.
That helps drive larger basket sizes, stronger repeat visits, and more predictable cash flow.
As the company scales, new distribution centers and operating leverage should support continued margin expansion while strong free cash flow funds store growth and share repurchases.
Compared with the competition:
• $WMT dominates through unmatched scale and logistics.
• $TGT competes with merchandising and private-label brands.
• $COST wins through memberships and bulk purchasing.
• $DG focuses on convenience and small-format locations.
• $OLLI wins by sourcing branded closeout inventory that competitors can’t consistently replicate.
Ironically, periods of economic uncertainty can actually create more excess inventory for manufacturers, giving Ollie’s additional buying opportunities at attractive prices.
Yet the stock continues trading at a significant discount.
• Forward P/E: roughly 14-16x
• Historically traded closer to 25-30x
• FY27 forward P/E: ~14.5x
• FY28 forward P/E: ~12.8x
• P/S: approximately 1.3x
• Trading roughly two standard deviations below its historical forward valuation.
Despite delivering:
✅ Double-digit revenue growth
✅ 20%+ EPS growth
✅ Margin expansion
✅ Double-digit store growth
✅ Raised FY26 guidance
✅ Strong free cash flow
✅ Share buybacks
✅ A rapidly expanding loyalty ecosystem
The biggest concern remains comparable-store sales, which grew 1.7%, trailing off-price leaders like $TJX $ROST That’s something I’ll continue watching closely.
Next catalyst: Q2 earnings on August 27.
If Ollie’s keeps executing while expanding its footprint and growing its loyalty base, I think the gap between the business and the stock price eventually narrows.
Shoutout @EarningsBrief one of the few legends seeing disconnect. 💪
A quality retailer with multiple growth levers trading well below the valuation it has historically commanded.
Worth a closer look.

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@LazaroInvestor $IBM warns Q2 earnings fell short of expectations.
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Monday Magnificent Market Maestros
@JohnProv1
@Digital_Hus
@DavidDziekanski
@EdgeReport91
@EMcArdleInvest
@adamtstempel
@SunnyWong111
@CaffeineCraig
@LazaroInvestor
@RetireonDividen
@BrandonWealth
@ArchitectIncome
@dividendvision
@mbluesguitar
@ms_roundhill
@MassNortheast
GIF
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