Surfing Secular

4 simple steps to investing: 1) Look for businesses that have high returns on capital, protected by a durable MOAT. 2) Business that have ample reinvestment opportunities that can reinvest due to little maintenance capex required

@felixprehn AI

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@patrick_oshag Midnight library or How to To Stop Time. Both are quick reads but linger in your head after — not overly heavy, just thoughtful. Definitely worth picking up if you’re into books that make you pause and think a little differently about your own life.

Need a good book for an upcoming trip. These days I need true page turners (fiction or non-fiction). Any ideas ?

@garyHeff @sirinvestalot21 @grok

@SurfingSecular @sirinvestalot21 @grok

$PARA @garyHeff @grok Why are the PARAA shares trading past the deal price my favorite bot? Skydance must be closing soon, can’t wait to pay $23.05 for $23.

@MarienLechevin thank you 🙏

@SurfingSecular no from livecasino.watch

$evo $evvty Evolution live game figures from last months below. Decrease by 11% compare to May. We are in the low season now, and we can see this cause the market share in the live game stay the same for EVO. Pragmatic lost 10% too.

@MarienLechevin Thank you for sharing. I’ve started to ramp up my research on EVO and have a general idea of their market share dominance. Is this data based on a proprietary tracking system you have?

$evo $evvty Evolution Market shares stays strong despite the decrease of players in June, it's normal, linked to the saisonnality :

$evo looks like Martin picked up $8m, 15% increase to his holdings

Looking for the $EVO short reports from Jan 2022 and October 2023. I have the November 2021 report. Can only seem to find articles discussing the other 2. Any help would be greatly appreciated

More details on cap alloc: $24m cfo, $5m capex, $8m buybacks, $10m M&A

Having $10m of IP tee’d up on a $32m IMS acq is interesting.

$PRM Q1 is immaterial but good Q, above avg fire season helped. Tiny, but first acq in the IMS leg of the stool, if they can simply bring that production in, will lift margins. Cap Alloc is impressive, hammered the buyback at lows

Total market size seems smaller than I anticipated, maybe 12-24 companies at the $5m-$10m revenue in the niche space. This niche is part of a much larger industry but they play in the low vol, high speed space. IMS aimed to be 2x-3x the margin of commoditized part of industry.

IMS did well in the early stages of product development but opportunity to grow in the end of life stages. Grew the early stage business primarily through word of mouth, just need to develop a better pipeline for end of life products

Read an interview with former CEO of IMS, the recent $PRM acquisition. Doesn’t seem like they own the IP like originally thought. Similar patterns to TDG on the early and end of life stages with pricing power, low vol, quick turnarounds needed. Value prop in the service and speed

@Process_Cap @evrgn11112231 Yea, John has been screaming that for a while now. The part of EO to remove some of the oversight from USFS to include 3rd party testing/industry input was likely because of the USFS push to force use of Fortress. Agree on the podcast, it’s great!

@SurfingSecular @evrgn11112231 Adding into their ability to win a little more often if some of those barriers are removed: The 10Tanker CEO reeeeally didn’t wanting to put Fortress product in his planes and talked about it a bit in this interview. He seems close with Sheehy so may be someone to watch

$PRM reportedly an EO draft in establishing the National Wildfire Agency by 2026. forestpolicypub.com/2025/04/10/tex… Nothing incredibly groundbreaking as many of these changes have been discussed since the LA fires. Overall, it should increase industry aerial capacity and use. 1/

@evrgn11112231 I agree on extremely positive for PRM and overall expand capacity, especially the longer term contracts make the whole industry more stable with tankers able to invest here. Cheers

@SurfingSecular I don't view the contracting process as an important contributor to their moat nor do I ever expect meaningful competition. I view all of these National changes as very positive long term as it should meaningfully expand airtanker capacity and suppression intensity.

My gut (or bias) believes it’s the former. @evrgn11112231 have you thought through this?

2) or this allows a contracting officer to separate the service requirement of PRM’s contract from the underlying material, opening the door to new entrants because PRM’s moat is more manufacturing/distribution based than anything and the new entrants can’t compete here.