Tae Page

Some things age like fine wine.

@TBU12345678 Same group of buyers buying AMD and INTC are the ones buying ARM and the rest of the semis complex

to answer many questions: 1) yes I know the stock is up 2) no I'm not stupid enough to engage with a meme 3) the people who are buying this particular stock up 10% in the post are actually stupid 4) ARM has beaten a single qtr since going public, but let's believe an LT guide

forever shit $ARM. godspeed to the retail baggies

@skewga_capital What happens after end of alt season? Imagine if NVDA/SMH has bottomed but they both bleed in $ terms

NVDA/SMH is the new BTC Dominance? It seems like we are experiencing alt season but for the AI trade.

@BowTiedLobster @colossus_cap @LobsterFinance Assuming it's not a data error if they're all looking at the same thing doesn't seem "unusual". Mind you this chart is from late April so bit dated. Would be keen to see what the latest one shows.

@TaePage_ @colossus_cap @LobsterFinance Spirit doesn't fly in China so if it's an error it's probably something else

A large number of people replied to the “YOU ARE HERE” 2020 image with “uhhhh is there another global pandemic.” I replied to them saying that for all intents and purposes, there is. Bigger, even.

@TraderMotif It's been tempting to short early the last ~2 weeks but might finally be go time.

Expecting BTC to hang around here until the end of the week. Next week should give us the green light to short.

@colossus_cap @LobsterFinance Filter by individual country and directionally it appears consistent?

@LobsterFinance Spirit bankruptcy maybe? That almost looks like an error

@alex__pitti What's your thesis?

@TaePage_ this and next quarter

Max long semis

@alex__pitti Why are you so confident they will go up this and next quarter?

@TaePage_ amd, sndk

@alex__pitti What tickers should we buy?

@TaePage_ good!

The most entertaining outcome. FWIW, I'm still long Asian semis and American energy.

@itsDanielWu @ContrarianCurse Not going to be a hero and max short here but personally this indicator has had an astoundingly good hit rate for me

@ContrarianCurse First memory cycle with massive retail involvement who can’t fathom how a financial profile like this could trade for sub-10x PE. I suspect takes longer than usual to correct.

All the memory players and TSM about a year ago said that they learned their lesson, going to be prudent about bringing on capacity, don't want the cycles anymore Now they are all in the pool. You can't ignore the demand signals. They drive price to levels that enrich those who will meet the demand signal and eventually mechanically take share You are seeing this with Intel/Samsung now. If you can't make our orders, someone else will. Everyone is sold out. The point that I have always made (and I've argued both sides so fuck off), is that cycles are inevitable always because they occur via everyone making rational decisions. There is nothing you can do as a business to avoid overbuilding

100% agree as someone in their mid 30s with a young family. I'm usually not that interested in politics but for the first time ever I know that I definetely WON'T be voting Labor in the next election. Addressing inequality amongst the younger generation is a load of crap if you're increasing taxes for all assets including shares. We all know this is just a tax grab because they don't have a spine to cut spending in other areas. The reason young people are buying other assets outside of property is so that they can try to get by and build a safety net because wage growth is basically nonexistent compared to *actual* inflation (not some arbitrary CPI basket which means nothing) and cost of living.

Australian Government to DOUBLE the tax on every young Australians success in next week’s budget. #budget2026 Young Australians building real wealth are about to get absolutely fleeced by @AlboMP and @JEChalmers. They want to double the tax on your life’s work. This isn’t “fairness.” It’s a brutal raid on every Australian trying to build real wealth. #LaborTaxRaid

@GeoffWilsonWAM @ausgov @JEChalmers @AlboMP @15 Looking forward to voting them out in the next election.

The @ausgov @JEChalmers @AlboMP are destroying everything young Australians aspiration with their new capital gains tax in the budget. Young Aussie invests $10k @15% pa for 50yrs =$10.84M. 3% inflation, indexed cost base =$44k. Real gain $10.79M. Current CGT (50% discount)=$2.63M tax Proposed 48.5% on indexed gain=$5.23M tax @ausgov wants to DOUBLE the tax on long-term success. Punitive raid on aspirational Australians. #AussieTaxGrab

@iamfabian What, one can't be open minded and try to learn a new sector?

I'm also fascinated by crypto bros suddenly shifting to photonics and memory discussions. I guess one must follow the money even if they have zero industry knowledge? No hate; just fascination

@heiss_7 This time is different

@BigTrout300 I don't know what this means but go max long on semis?

If there was ever a time I was going to tweet “now stop” on the $SPX You’re pretty much there. May > June weaknesss into OPEX quarter, Stable gamma becoming a slow down.. with a chance for negative gamma to comeback or better yet go back into the “slope” we were at. MidtermY

If you are buying memory stocks here, you are in the same boat as the korean crypto gamblers Who knows it might work, just the odds are not the best :)

Time is a flat circle

@degentradingLSD Interesting backdrop of rising input costs, higher inflation, rates and this. Not calling *the* top but we've seen this before.

is this the $EWY top