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A good business is not the same as a good stock.
That’s the core premise behind Tanuki Research — where I will try to post some decent longs and shorts from the literal beach.
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TanukiResearch
106 posts
TanukiResearch
@TanukiResearch
Long-short generalist, on the literal beach, maybe looking for my next gig, shitposting ideas.
Katılım Mayıs 2025
226 Takip Edilen664 Takipçiler
@joinyellowbrick I think they won a massive defense helicopter deal (FLRAA) a few years ago that should just be starting to inflect soon iirc. Haven’t looked at it in a while.
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Textron $TXT seems interesting.
> spinning out industrials business to become defense prime
> tailwind from defense spending (specifically the helicopters that Textron's Bell division builds)
> Entire business currently trading below the low-end of defense prime valuations
> Former Raytheon CEO just bought the stock
> not the highest base upside, but gets interesting if 1) spin happens on time + 2) re-rate to middle of defense primes range + 3) defense bill pulls forward spend
CEO Watcher@CEOStockWatcher
Former CEO of Raytheon $RTX buys $1M of Textron $TXT just a couple of days after they announce they are spinning out their industrial business to focus on defense
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@MrMojoRisinX Believe they are de-listing them, so forced sellers?
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Yes start with just the extensive/lower intensity ones for 4-6 weeks before adding the intensive/maximal 8 second ones
Start 1 set of extensive for weeks 1-3. Maybe cut them down to 20 seconds for first week or 2 & then go to 30 seconds
After 4-6 weeks, layer in one set of intensive/maximal 8 second sets
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Said it once, I’ll say it again…
Do this routine 2-3x per week
Focus: Ankles, feet & calves
1. Bilateral extensive pogo (2x30 seconds)
2. Unilateral extensive pogo (1x30 seconds)
3. Bilateral intensive pogo (2x8 seconds)
4. Unilateral intensive pogo (1x8 seconds)
Quality contacts = 🔑
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@fcfyplusg lol how on earth did you find this? I forgot I even tweeted it. I wish I had made money on it.
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@contralculator Ha thanks. Sadly I set out to start a short-selling blog, came across a fun long idea, didn’t really pump it for the clicks and just owned a bit in my tiny PA. Womp womp.
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@Tintincapital PRSU is very nice and pretty cheap. Worth a look IMO.
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*Potentially* Irreplaceable Tourist Assets.
Added some new ones. Some illiquid names. Some have poor unit economics. Most are richly valued currently.
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@Justa_Lad Super helpful, thanks. I love these larger cap, less controversial, kinder inevitable loser type shorts.
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@TanukiResearch Structural trap, squeezed on 2 sides by scaled price-leading ecosystems (wmt/amazon) and specialty/off-price stores, eroding the necessity of $TGT shopping occasions. Now pursuing margin-dilutive investment cycle, lowering ROIC, and growing ecom that’ll be a profit bleed
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@DannyOcean555 I think you’re dead on. AI winner + cheap busted IPO.
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NTSK
A. Brutal px action post IPO
B. Here's my blunt, dumb tourist take on the current cybersecurity bucket:
- Selling off bc they're software & AI = software is a zero (sure)
- As AI / agentic AI proliferates, the frequency, vulnerable surface area, & potential damage wrought by errant AI usage (malicious or just ignorant) greatly increases.
It's a ticking time bomb until...
- Inevitably, there's a high profile AI-related disaster at a large organization. One that's costly, impairs operations, is very public & embarrassing, maybe even cascading (not good!)
- Companies that are adopting AI (which is most in enterprise that matter- either bc they believe in AI or are pressured to bc they need to be able to say "yes, we are using AI" at the next XYZ SS conference) pause & redirect $$$ & effort into security initiatives before deploying AI/agentic technology further
- Cybersecurity is no longer software, rather it's an AI-winner!
- These cybersecurity names, currently trading at compressed multiples relative to history*, are now more valuable than when they traded prior to the SaaS-is-dead narrative
>> Multiple rerate, hopefully (?) followed by added demand >> Topline acceleration >> Revision upcycle >> Stocks up
Meantime (read: until something breaks), seems like these names will bleed lower with the rest of software.
*This varies greatly & depends how far down the income statement you care to go- generally more true for the smaller ones e.g. ZS, RBRK
Danny Ocean@DannyOcean555
RBRK As someone who too-frequently posts about theme parks, this is way out of my depth. But I like the agentic theme- Any views on how real RAC & the Rewind product are? Conceptually, I buy the need for a system-agnostic product to police/rectify agents’ actions Though seems like technical challenge that hasn’t quite been solved yet (& IDK if RBRK’s the one to do it/win)
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@TanukiResearch loved reading this. great points about the upside potential and valuation.
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$THR. Thermon is a niche duopoly in thermal solutions that’s moved beyond O&G into better end markets. Trades ~13x unlevered earnings, ~$1B EV, under-levered, and about to lap temporary headwinds. Rerate + M&A optionality.
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@RealJimChanos @PatrickMoorhead @ClayMagouyrk Obviously if this is the case, the annual expenses should be lumpier/more front weighted
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@RealJimChanos @PatrickMoorhead @ClayMagouyrk The slide seems to imply the data center and compute costs are in the 39bn of costs, but that feels….wrong? Given others talk about 50bn to stand up a GW? And then opex on top of it?
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Here’s what a GW deal looks like for OCI. $60B revenue. Gross margin 35%. Talking about expenses before it goes online. ‘Ramp up cost is minimal and reducing every project’ and working with partners to accelerate the entire value chain.
$ORCL
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@AggieCapitalist CD&R and PIF just bought BASF’s inferior coatings biz for a price that implies $AXTA at 50-60, it’s like 27 🤷♂️
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*taps sign*
If you really get cynical, they’re good longs….as long as you can move your feet
Laputa@fcfyplusg
One dynamic w shorting that eventually humbles everyone is that a bad co (fraud/cyclical/fad/etc) going up in price w deteriorating fundamentals is often not a good short. This is sort of not intuitive and not the inverse of how longs work lol, just a different game entirely
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"There's old short-sellers and there's bold short-sellers. There's no old bold shortsellers. "
-my old PM smugly explaining why all his friends were no longer in the business as he grinded me to death over my 15 80bp short positions at a time
Upslope Capital@UpslopeCapital
I think most people think of "small" sizing for shorts as ~LSD%. In reality, 10-50 bps is reasonable sizing for fraudy/promote shorts. More importantly though, it's an awful idea to get involved with these types if it's not your day job.
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@MrMojoRisinX i feel like you would have a good take roasting me here
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Downside protection/upside kicker as peer recently acquired by Brookfield, M&A regulatory environment thawing, under-levered B/S and cash gen makes great buyout. this is a sub-scale gem of a public company - people start knocking at the door if stock doesn't work from here imo.
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