TheCashRollKid

Important development: China has given state-owned refiners the green light to export some gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel to a handful of regular customers (in Asia), signaling the country is effectively easing an earlier ban on shipments.

UNITED STATES WEIGHS CRUDE EXPORT TARIFF — AND POSSIBLE BAN — TO CURB SURGING ENERGY PRICES AMID MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT. || POTENTIAL CURBS COULD WIDEN WTI CRUDE–BRENT CRUDE GAP, LOWER DOMESTIC FUEL COSTS BUT DISRUPT GLOBAL SUPPLY AND PUSH INTERNATIONAL PRICES HIGHER.

Senior advisers to President Donald J. Trump would prefer Israel strike Iran before the United States launches a large-scale air campaign on the country, stating that “the politics are a lot better if the Israelis go first and alone and the Iranians retaliate,” claiming that Iranian retaliation would help muster support from American voters for a U.S. strike, two people familiar with ongoing discussions told Politico.

I didn't have time to address this earlier, but.... That draw in Cushing is worth noting, as the WTI contract at CME Group that you are all trading IS Cushing. Cushing is holding 24.018 million barrels. That's roughly 4 million barrels above the level where physical transfers become operationally impossible. Cushing has about 78 million barrels of working storage capacity, though, north of 90 million barrels of shell capacity. That said, those numbers are misleading. Below 20 million barrels, crude becomes thick with settled water and sediment, floating tank roofs hit their leg stops and create combustible vapor gaps, and the oil that remains can't meet quality specs for refiners or exporters. At ~24 million barrels, Cushing is operating at roughly 31% of working capacity but functionally at about 7% of truly usable storage. This means we have 4 million barrels of breathing room at a hub that routinely moves 2 million barrels per week in either direction. That's two weeks of normal flow before the WTI delivery mechanism seizes.