TheCuriousInvestor

Documenting my experience with Pfizer. Got my 1st dose 24 hours ago. Hopefully it'll help someone. Side effects so far: -sore arm -stiff neck (lymph nodes) -headache / brainfog -nausea -sleepy -feeling similar to "heart burn" but isn't (this is most concerning - will monitor)

This video by Scott Adams will rewire your brain to never feel lazy again.

@GardinerIsland Very strange price action today. $Cloz and $jbbb flat but other CLOs down (+5%) … @UrbanKaoboy do you have an opinion as to why?

anybody in my stream follow the CLO players ( $OXLC , $ECC , $EIC , $CCIF , $SPMC ) and seen / heard any particular reason they all been thumped ? their assets seem fine if one looks at $CLOZ . Yes , aware of $OXLC rev split but this is sector wide

@sweinand @UrbanKaoboy

CLO ETF Moves Seems like some names in this space are hitting air pockets. wsj.com/livecoverage/s…

@UrbanKaoboy Not all corrections end up being correlation 1 events though.

The best barometer for when we’re near a bottom during a panic is not when you’re wondering whether to buy or what to buy but when you’re wondering whether you should puke and go to 100% cash. 😱

Musings of the Day, 3/10/25: Welcome to the Asteroid Field Market. I just hope the odds of navigating this are better than Han Solo's! youtube.com/watch?v=N6-SPU…

@Altcoin_Hero_ Looks like the $ETH ETFs are going to set records today. 30 min into trading and $etha has already done 2M volume of its 10 avg daily volume of 5M.

I have a feeling Blackrock $ETHA is going to be buying a lot of $ETH this week People starting to realize they missed the boat with #Bitcoin

$ETH is the most mispriced asset in world, and it's primed to enter a parabolic rally. Try to understand where real world adoption is happening and you will come to the same conclusion. Circle and BlackRock are leading the way in creating the most trusted, audited, and regulated USD stablecoins in the world. They are doing it almost exclusively on Ethereum, bringing a new level of legitimacy to the crypto space. A new joint venture between Anchorage Digital, Bullish, Galaxy Digital, Kraken, Nuvei, Paxos, and Robinhood is launching a stablecoin called USDG, primarily on Ethereum. This collaboration further solidifies Ethereum's position as the leading platform for stablecoins and financial innovation. Just today, Tether disclosed that over $2 billion worth of USDT is being bridged from alternative Layer 1 blockchains back to Ethereum. This shift underscores Ethereum's dominance as the go-to platform for stablecoins and DeFi activities. Coinbase, Kraken, Sony, and Samsung are pioneering Layer 2 solutions on Ethereum, with Coinbase's Base becoming the fastest-growing network in crypto history. This surge highlights the immense potential of Layer 2 technologies to improve scalability, reduce transaction costs, and serve as an infrastructural backbone for established industry leaders from various market segments. The Michigan State Pension Fund is making headlines by allocating a significant portion of its treasury to $ETH, surpassing its investment in $BTC. This move signals growing institutional confidence in Ethereum's long-term value. Even the next president of the United States is embracing the trend, capitalizing on personal branding through NFTs and exploring decentralized finance (DeFi) on Ethereum. Notably, the president also personally owns $ETH but not $BTC, highlighting a significant endorsement of Ethereum over Bitcoin. Even $BTC is finding its way to the Ethereum network with Coinbase's wrapped BTC, which has captured more than twice the amount of BTC circulating on Bitcoin's own Layer 2 solution, the Lightning Network. Remarkably, Coinbase's wrapped BTC launched only nine weeks ago, while the Lightning Network has been around for over six years. All this while Ethereum remains net deflationary since the merge over two years ago, reducing supply and eliminating exorbitant energy consumption from mining as well as the structural selling that is associated with it. All this while $ETH provides native yield through staking, attracting more investors. All this while it sustained and successfully defended against a censorship attack from OFAC, showcasing its resilience and commitment to decentralization. Meanwhile, Bitcoin maxis waged a campaign of FUD with a long list of failed predictions, the largest being that Ethereum would never be classified as a commodity and that it would never get its own spot ETFs. Contrary to these predictions, $ETH has been recognized as a commodity by regulatory bodies, and several futures, ETPs, and spot ETFs have been launched in the United States and several other countries like Canada, Brazil, Switzerland Australia, Germany, Austria and France. Ethereum has reached critical mass and is now an unstoppable force shaping the future of finance. With four years ahead to spread its wings and expand its horizons without the hindrance of a government that sought to restrict financial freedom, $ETH's time has come.

@UrbanKaoboy Possibly also the more pro crypto and therefore bitcoin environment which is an alternative to physical gold

The thing that is piquing my curiosity the most this am is the puke in GOLD. My gut is that this is a combination of: 1. Return of the USD Wrecking Ball 2. Return of more attractive 10Y Rates See below — Gold went DOWN during Asian Contagion 1.0 possibly due to 10Y USTs being that much more attractive. IF CBs decide to bail on Gold and back into USTs, the Sword of Supply Inelasticity cuts BOTH ways, and the move could be severe.

Musings of the Day, 11/6/24: Good news for the Republicans: Red Sweep Bad news for the Republicans: No one to blame if they fuck it up I hope a united Government can unite the COUNTRY now.🙏🇺🇸

@UrbanKaoboy @WarrenPies The slow boil continues … interesting post by Warren

@TheCuriousInve1 @WarrenPies I initially thought that Asian Contagion 2.0 might finally be upon us, but the absence of Credit Panic is a big tell that we’re not there…yet.

What happens when: 1) The S&P 500 corrects by 10% AND 2) The Fed cuts within the next three months? On average, market bottoms sometime w/i the next two months ~5-10% below initial selloff low. Return over next 12 months = ~14%. @3F_Research

@WarrenPies @UrbanKaoboy

1998 = interesting analog...w/ striking similarities: -Initial selloff in August -Catalyzed by Asian currency crisis -First Fed cut in September from FFR of 5.5% -Market bottom in Oct -Required 50 bps of Fed cuts (from 5.5 to 5% FFR).

@Mayhem4Markets @theMacroVisors @JulianMI2

Wow. Check out this chart comparing the size of the US stock market to that of Asia or Europe. You can even combine the other two regions together and we're still larger by around 2x. USA. USA. But maybe it's time to invest abroad as well? 🤔

@Mayhem4Markets This will actually help the Fed achieve its 2% inflation target

@Mayhem4Markets Just wait until the market realizes that the Fed isn’t going to cut 😄

The Fed isn't behind the curve here. The market is. That's the real story.

@Mayhem4Markets Agreed. It used to be decent, but has been getting worse. It seems to be a propaganda machine these days.

What war will start tonight? These planes have been buzzing the gulf for days, and are in no way a sign of any imminent 'war'. Further, the last time Iran engaged in one of these attacks it was a rather fruitless endeavor overall. Certainly did not lead to 'war'.

@UrbanKaoboy Thoughts on 1-3 year US bonds? $shy. I see limited downside with potential upside due to cuts, while protected from long end bond vigilantes if inflation scares return.

When my kids were little and I wanted to tickle-torture them, I sometimes held back "The Claw" from doing so. When I'm tempted to short $TLT right now, I am exercising similar restraint. That day is coming, just not today!

Musings of the Day, 8/1/24: As I posited yesterday, I think the crescendo pukeshot in USDJPY/DXY may have contributed to Copper’s first up day in months. Oil’s spike was due to the Hamas assassination headline which I said was a FADE. Today, both Oil (at least $XOP) and Cu are already back to their Slippin’ Jimmy ways.

@UrbanKaoboy Maersk cutting 10,000 jobs is also a canary in the coal mine.

Musings of the Day, 11/7/23: OIL is the GLOBAL Canary in the Coalmine for what is happening to Aggregate Demand, but the wildcard is whether the US FISCAL TAILWIND will allow the Fed to take its foot off the throat of all other CBs. I suspect the answer is NOT ANYTIME SOON.

@UrbanKaoboy Michael can you do a poll on how long people think higher for longer will last? I think there is a belief that it'll be 1-2 years instead of the +-5 years that history seems to indicate it'll need to be.

No one, including the Fed, seems to be acknowledging the sticky STRUCTURAL repercussions of Labor Strikes spreading across industries.

Musings of the Day, 10/19/23: Reflecting on this lunch I had almost 2 years ago…

@spomboy @ttmygh @JulianMI2

wow! @ttmygh. Even by Krugman standards, this is staggering.

@UrbanKaoboy @SafeBox_Charlie Powell's worst nightmare ... wage spiral inflation ...

@SafeBox_Charlie Ironic, because if they win the wage concessions, it just EXACERBATES the Inflation problem.

Musings of the Day, 10/4/23: Watch OIL and $XOP. Coming into today delta-neutral on almost everything EXCEPT $XOP was intentional and feels good. Peter Schiff's recent call for $300 marked the literal top. x.com/UrbanKaoboy/st…

@MI2Partners @RogerHirst3 Hello. I signed up for the virtual pass but have not received my login details. I sent an email but have not received a response. Can you assist?

@2GrayBeards Proof of how difficult this market is. Only now you're on par with the risk free rate.

Week 39 is now live for clients: 2graybeards.com/week-39-2023se…… Week 35 is live for everyone here: Youtube: youtu.be/yVbQMFsW_qE Website w/ Supplementals: 2graybeards.com/week-35-2023au…