The Hawk Stocks

$RDDT down 9% because it told $GOOGL it might stop handing over the last large corpus on the internet written by actual humans. The market called that a risk event. It is a supplier discovering it has pricing power. Understand the trade here. Google is not a partner. Google is a customer. It pays $60M a year for the right to train on Reddit, then built AI Overviews to answer the query on its own page and keep the click. It bought the ingredient and cut out the kitchen. Now the contract is expiring and Reddit is negotiating in public. You do not leak “we may shut you off” unless you are ready to. So price the leverage properly. $60M is a rounding error to a company running 90%+ gross margins with 110M daily users growing 21%. Reddit does not need that check. It needs the next one to be ten times bigger. Google needs the corpus. Every frontier lab is out of clean human text. Synthetic data eats itself. X is locked inside xAI. Stack Overflow is a graveyard. Discord is private. Reddit is the last open reservoir of real people arguing about real products, and its API terms already prohibit commercial use without a signed deal. There is no second Reddit. There are five buyers. One supplier. Multiple bidders. An expiring contract. That is not a risk. That is an auction. Flat fee was 2024. Usage-based is 2027. And the tape is offering it 27% below the high.

$RDDT is considering cutting off $GOOGL access to its content for AI use as its $60M annual licensing deal nears expiration. Other publishers are also reevaluating Google’s crawler as AI summaries erode referral traffic with USA Today reportedly down ~50% over the past year.

Meanwhile… Gemini, OpenAI and Anthropic are only paying $RDDT (Reddit) a combined $130M per year. Something tells me that number is going much higher in the next 6-12 months. Keep in mind, $RDDT is the 6th most visited website in the world which means their content is worth alot more than what these ai labs are currently paying.

$NUAI 15$ coming soon. Inevitable 438 owned acres in Ector County, Texas. 1+ GW master plan. Phase 1 targeting ~200MW with first power as early as end of 2027. Plus an option on 3,500 acres in Lea County, New Mexico for a second campus. $290M senior secured term loan from Macquarie. $120M equity raise. Balance sheet is funded. Read the structure of that Macquarie facility. Credit availability is tied to hyperscaler lease agreements. Macquarie does not write that covenant unless someone believes those leases get signed. B. Riley initiated Buy, $10 target, on July 7. Conversant filed a 13G on Monday. 5.39M shares. 5.3% of the company. The stock closed up 26%. New C-suite as of July 1. The new COO ran infrastructure at Microsoft, AWS and TikTok. Nobody leaves those chairs for a shell in Midland. New Mexico litigation got final court approval and went away on July 9. One overhang cleared. Small cap. Levered. Barely any revenue. All of that is true and all of it is in the filings. None of it is the question. The question is what a signed hyperscaler lease does to a $500M market cap sitting on stranded Permian gas with no interconnection queue. NFA. 🦅 I hold 35,000 shares and will add accordingly

The thing about $ABVX nobody has priced. The buyers have already been in the room. AstraZeneca $AZN was reported inside the data with a deadline. Lilly $LLY was reported at $17B before the maintenance trial even read out. That was the old data. That was the old cash position. The CEO’s answer today, sitting on $920M: “The best defense for us is actually the offense.” That is not a man with no offers. That is a man with offers he thinks are too low. I see this clearing $220 to $240. The stock is $137 You are not early. You are just not late yet. $XBI