TheRealJohn

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TheRealJohn

TheRealJohn

@TheReal50972902

15+ years top hedge funds Systematic / Quant / Credit / Rates / FX / Macro Discount anything I say about individual equities and commodities Fully caffeinated

Split across time and space Katılım Eylül 2020
1K Takip Edilen2.2K Takipçiler
TheRealJohn
TheRealJohn@TheReal50972902·
She knows they have NOLs. That is how taxes work. They exist for a common sense reason that D's and R's agree on. Despite that, she writes things that she knows are misleading. You either (1) Are unaware and just pattern matching random words OR...(2) Understand the situation also are are purposuflllay misleading.
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Tommy Lee
Tommy Lee@tommyleed8888·
@MartinShkreli @ewarren 1) she made the rules? Democrats tried raising taxes on corporations under Biden but were blocked by republicans I stopped reading after your misinformation on number one
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Elizabeth Warren
Elizabeth Warren@ewarren·
Tesla paid $0 in federal income taxes in 2025, despite making $5.7 billion. This Tax Day, remember that you have paid more in taxes than a multi-billion dollar company—all thanks to corporate tax breaks from Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill.
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dani
dani@not_danicee·
I don’t understand why this tweet has people twisting themselves in knots (I’m a native new yorker) if you have options and access to a car, yeah, personally it’s better to pick someone up. i drive my friends and family all the time and don’t mind being the chauffeur. the train is more of a hassle due to where i live and my friends live - i’d rather deal with driving than worry about schedules, delays, transfers and logistics. i always find street parking, and overall it’s more comfortable and faster. if you don’t have a car, that’s a completely different situation. however, both things can be true
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Christina Casillo
Christina Casillo@chrisrosecas·
there's people in New York City, New York that expect to be ubered to a first date... or picked up by a man in his own car....once again in New York City....ummmmm
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TheRealJohn
TheRealJohn@TheReal50972902·
@blondesnmoney That is EXACTLY what she meant. The NFP # release. Large % of people on this app are idiots.
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TheRealJohn
TheRealJohn@TheReal50972902·
@blueprintsmb22 I'm convinced most RE outcomes are a function of being in the right market at the right time. Get that right/wrong is 80% of the result. And that might mean just not playing the game in a given market for 10+ years.
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Blueprintsmb
Blueprintsmb@blueprintsmb22·
I respect those that have made generational wealth with real estate as it’s hard AF but this foots more w the anecdotes of my friends that did real estate as a secondary source of income x.com/GrahamStephan/…
Graham Stephan@GrahamStephan

I’ve spent a decade telling people to do what I do: "Buy and Hold." Now I've decided to list my entire real estate portfolio for sale and walk away. It started slow. The bills, the maintenance, the tax increases... but the final straw was when I tried to develop an ADU to do exactly what the city of LA claims it wants investors like me to do: Create more housing. You'd think they'd make it easier, but after two delayed inspections, a sewer pipe replacement that needed 75 days advance notice, and a city-owned tree that became my responsibility, I'd had enough. The identity of being a real-estate guy is very hard to walk away from, trust me. For a long time, I stayed just because real estate was my "thing." It’s how I started. It’s what I’m known for. It led to every good thing in my life. But that blinded me to the fact that just because something served me in the past, it doesn't mean things haven't changed in the present. The reality of 2026 finally stripped the emotion away. My LA rentals are netting about 4-5% after the constant background noise of taxes, insurance spikes, and repairs. Meanwhile, a risk-free Treasury pays 5%. The trade-off just doesn't make sense any more. I’m reallocating to a liquid portfolio that actually lets me focus on the work I love. I published a deep dive on my Substack about the ADU nightmare that broke my patience, the exact numbers behind the exit, and where I’m moving the money next to buy back my sanity. I'll drop the link here in a bit.

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TheRealJohn
TheRealJohn@TheReal50972902·
@Merridew__ Isn't this how they are supposed to move? Somewhere around $10 and then they start trading?
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TheRealJohn
TheRealJohn@TheReal50972902·
@michelletandler @Maria4Dist6 @dany_egorov This is not true. There is a grade school every 3-4 blocks. Within 5 blocks of my place there are probably more than 15 schools (public and private). 830-900am side walks are packed with kids.
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Michelle Tandler
Michelle Tandler@michelletandler·
@Maria4Dist6 @dany_egorov Sorry but I strongly disagree with you. I live on the UWS and feel like it's a retirement home with the occasional family. Virtually nobody under 30 lives here.
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Maria Danzilo
Maria Danzilo@Maria4Dist6·
This lack of job growth in NYC in the private sector is a serious warning sign for what the future might look like. It must be taken seriously. My neighborhood, the UWS , has been transformed in the last few years by the arrival of so many young people. The UWS used to be a neighborhood filled with mostly seniors and families with children but it looks like they have either disappeared all the old people or they’ve moved on. The young people moving in have all managed to find affordable apartments in the neighborhood, and they fill the restaurants and bars along a Columbus and Amsterdam , which are packed most nights. The UWS is having a moment and dare I say it’s even looking like the new Brooklyn. So here we have some very concerning news about job growth. This is really going to hurt all these young people planting roots in NYC and for all the young people graduating in May who want to move here. We need a vibrant, resilient growth oriented economy. NYC must be business friendly and welcoming because that’s where the City gets the money it needs to do all the things it wants to and needs to do so that everyone is thriving. The city and the whole region depend on it. @OneCityRisingNY @KathyHochul @savetheuws2 @ShabbosK @stick_dynamite @katiewr31413491 @JCAndersonNYC @BillAckman @JulieMenin @MarkLevineNYC
Steven Fulop@StevenFulop

If you love NYC, this data should concern you. The city’s private sector added just 13,000 jobs in 2025 - down from 95,000 the year before. Even in office-based industries that anchor our tax base, growth was essentially flat. The trajectory is clear - raising taxes now would compound a problem that’s already serious. The city needs an immediate focus on EDC leadership and a real long-term jobs strategy city-journal.org/article/new-yo…

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TheRealJohn
TheRealJohn@TheReal50972902·
@RightWingJax @DaleStarkA10 @johnkonrad FWIW, not sure those guys are really supported by their party. The people that are being built up with party $$$ and support are the ones the party controls.
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Jax
Jax@RightWingJax·
100%. They're probably all like that. I wouldn't put it past Thomas Massie or Rand Paul to be under duress either, at this point. We're talking about a foreign intelligence service that can force the president to use military force without provocation to jump us into another major perpetual war in the Middle East, but they aren't applying constant duress and pressure to our politicians in Congress and the Senate? I doubt that the Supreme Court or any of our major federal institutions have any agency left either. We really are one nation, under duress, from the shadows, with no liberty or justice for all.
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Dale Stark
Dale Stark@DaleStarkA10·
The Swalwell saga perfectly shows how politics really works in America. They’ve had this dirt on him for years and sat on it until he stepped out of line. It explains why no matter who you vote for, you get the same results. One nation under blackmail.
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TheRealJohn
TheRealJohn@TheReal50972902·
@Restructuring__ The HRT guys all founded billion dollar firms. That is just a little different than being analyst/associate at some large PE firm.
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Restructuring__
Restructuring__@Restructuring__·
This is almost as good as PJT Restructuring, which still takes the lead because of the prestige 10-person class Harder to get in than in the NFL Absolute pristine exits (see table below) PJT Restructuring > HRT Trading
Restructuring__ tweet media
jay@jay_drainjr

HRT’s 2015 winter internship might be the greatest intern class of all time. 4 of the 10 have gone on to build companies worth over $80B combined Jeff Yan, Hyperliquid ($40B FDV) Alexandr Wang, Scale AI ($29B) Scott Wu, Cognition ($10.2B) Jesse Zhang, Decagon ($4.5B)

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TheRealJohn
TheRealJohn@TheReal50972902·
@gpsma2025 This thread is a cool example of AI enabling something new. People are having conversation and a connection here. But their posts are in their native Chinese, German, English, Japanese, Korean... And it is all being translated on the fly.
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阴阳行者-Yin Yang Wayfarer
四十岁后,终于发现了一个真相,所有的关系,到最后都归于消亡。儿时玩伴早已断了联系,曾经的同窗情谊也逐渐消散,单位里聊得好的同事离开后也再无交集。父母慢慢变老,离开自己的日子越来越近了。孩子慢慢长大,跟自己越来越远了。最终发现啊,只有你还是你,你只有你。 人生其实真的很短,不过匆匆几十年,一觉醒来,是一天,一觉醒不来,便是一生,好好珍惜每一天,做自己想做的事,爱自己想爱的人。
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TheRealJohn
TheRealJohn@TheReal50972902·
@LoneWolfIncome @aincomeinvestor For tax efficiency, your income should be in your 401k and growth in taxable accounts. Assumes your growth you aren't going trade anyway, so no taxable event. And your income will be taxed, often at your income level, so shield it in the 401k.
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Lone Wolf
Lone Wolf@LoneWolfIncome·
@aincomeinvestor My 401k and IRA are for growth. My taxable is for income and some growth. I like the option to be able to take a loan from the 401k if absolutely necessary instead of the bank to pay myself back and the tax free element on the Roth portions of each.
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TheRealJohn
TheRealJohn@TheReal50972902·
@bennpeifert @NotA_Bull You are probably better off just levering up the SP500 to whatever return + vol level you are seeking than taking concentrated risk to find some 10x stocks. Because what I'm really hearing is you are looking for more risk and return.
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Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️
@NotA_Bull zero evidence that individual investors can exhibit any persistent stock picking skill (and same is true for many long/short equity hedge funds)
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Evan | Investments
Evan | Investments@NotA_Bull·
Index funds are for staying wealthy, not for building wealth. If you're under 30, you should be hunting for 10x growth stocks, not 8% returns. Agree or Disagree?
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TheRealJohn
TheRealJohn@TheReal50972902·
@NotA_Bull You are probably better off just levering up the SP500 to whatever return + vol level you are seeking than taking concentrated risk to find some 10x stocks.
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TheRealJohn
TheRealJohn@TheReal50972902·
@Intermarket_Dyn @DavePittsburgh @MebFaber How are you reconciling what you are saying with recent performance? LTPZ did not perform all that well in recent inflation increase. You are basically locking in a real rate and returns driven by how real rates playout vs that.
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Intermarket Dynamics Research
Intermarket Dynamics Research@Intermarket_Dyn·
The value of the bonds are falling as the inflation steps up. I think if you go back historically and assume that inflation expectations are sticky, you'll find that the inflation boost would have offset the fall that would occur on the nominal side of long-term TIPS and then some. I'm not so sure about international stocks as a substitute for 60/40, particularly during World Wars, which tend to coincide with lost decades. They also don't provide any cyclical protection, which long-term TIPS likely would have.
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Paul W. Swaney III
Paul W. Swaney III@paulswaney3·
@anttarri If she got paid for that, she’s a bigger moron than I thought People use social media as a screening tool She’s made herself permanently unhirable by anyone
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Paul W. Swaney III
Paul W. Swaney III@paulswaney3·
Gen Z This muppet is your competitor There has never been a better time to excel at work. There is limitless opportunity in front of you stop complaining about housing prices and just shine.
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TheRealJohn
TheRealJohn@TheReal50972902·
@DegenerateBrah @swinshi @WSJ Rates could go up or down. But either way, there isn't the room for a decline from 18%. Said in more general terms, the starting conditions are fairly different today even if payments are high as a % of income in both cases.
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Wolf of Dalal Street
Wolf of Dalal Street@DegenerateBrah·
@swinshi @TheReal50972902 @WSJ I mean, if you can see a rate decline in the future, you would be lying. Debt to GDP is at record highs, money printing machine has been whirring since 2008 and somehow inflation and rates are going to come down? Come on Scott, the plan is to inflate the debt away for boomers.
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Scott Winship
Scott Winship@swinshi·
This is really a great feature in @WSJ comparing Millennials to Boomers. "Millennials looking to buy a home in the mid-2020s after a steep run-up in prices have had a tough time. But so did the boomers shopping for a house in the early 1980s, when mortgage rates peaked above 18%.
Scott Winship tweet media
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TheRealJohn
TheRealJohn@TheReal50972902·
@__paleologo Not sure what you are saying. Motorcycle is dangerous on a per mile basis. But is your point that typical motorcycle riders don't ride that many miles? Such that [Deaths/Mile] x [Low Miles] =[Low deaths]?
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Gappy (Giuseppe Paleologo)
This is a scary statistics but it’s somewhat irrelevant. It needs to be conditioned by the distributions of miles traveled by a passenger in that vehicle. Most people ride motorcycles on weekends, less than 1,000mi/yr, and drive a car 20,000mi/yr. Give a motorcycle a try.
Steve Stewart-Williams@SteveStuWill

“A motorcyclist who traveled 15 miles every day for a year had an astonishing 1 in 860 chance of dying. A person who took a 500 mile flight every day for a year would have a fatality risk of 1 in 85,000.” stevestewartwilliams.com/p/love-blindne…

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jello
jello@angelojello74·
My neighbor came over around 600pm. She had a problem with her hot water tank. The problem was a leak. The tank is done. She was going to call a plumber but I told her I’ll take care of it. A plumber on a weekend would be crazy expensive. I went to shut the water off to the tank. The water valve wouldn’t turn. It’s also done. I shut the water off at the meter. Lucky I had some valves here at the house. I fixed that. Told her tomorrow we can run out and get a new tank and I’ll put it in. I know she doesn’t have a lot of money. She’s elderly and all alone. So my son and I will take care of it. She offered to pay. I told no, just get us a pizza for lunch.
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TheRealJohn
TheRealJohn@TheReal50972902·
@obyw4telbeznipu @celestialbe1ng That unit is priced like that as it has a $10,000 per month common charge. So $120,000 a year for fees. Normally place that size in that location would go for $2.5M-3.0M It is cheap because the common fee is is high.
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