David Trainer

should be obvious by now, but OpenAI and Anthropic are just gonna keep cannibalizing all their biggest customers. it’s simply too profitable for them to resist. and it’s already happening: 1. Figma partnered with Anthropic on AI design tools. then Anthropic’s product chief quit Figma’s board, and 3 days later Anthropic launched Claude Design to compete with Figma. CEO Dylan Field said Anthropic was “not consistently candid.” 2. Novo Nordisk uses Claude to help develop drugs. now Anthropic is developing drugs of its own. 3. Microsoft poured billions into OpenAI. now OpenAI is building a Jobs Platform to compete with LinkedIn, and reportedly a code repository to compete with GitHub. Microsoft owns both. 4. Harvey uses Claude to sell AI contract analysis, due diligence, and litigation tools. now Anthropic sells those same workflows through Claude for Legal. 5. Intercom used OpenAI’s Realtime API to build Fin Voice. now OpenAI sells its own voice-and-chat support agent through Presence. 6. Abridge and Ambience build clinical documentation products on OpenAI. now OpenAI sells ChatGPT for Healthcare directly to hospitals with clinical documentation built in. 7. Benchling uses Claude to power its biotech R&D platform. now Anthropic sells its own scientific workbench through Claude Science. the frontier lab playbook is simple: 1. sell their models to the world’s most valuable businesses 2. help wire them into those companies’ most valuable and sensitive work 3. map the business from the inside and find where AI can take over 4. turn those capabilities into their own products and become the customer’s competitor

Gavin Baker: "AI models will go to zero. Data centers are commodity. Energy is commodity. Only two things in the whole stack have real value: data moats and reinforcement learning." His survival list is short: - Google — already multi-trillion, safe - xAI — his call: worth over $1T combined with X - Anthropic — the other closed model that survives Microsoft, OpenAI, Meta — chose open source. Baker treats them as commoditized. What he actually buys: things that increase GPU utilization. Take a GPU from 30% utilized to 60%, you've doubled the output of the AI factory. The math he keeps quoting: GPUs got 50x faster in 4 years. Nvidia sells for $50,000 what Taiwan makes from $700 of sand. Baker's frame: don't rent intelligence. Own the thing it runs on. Full breakdown — in the article below.

the extent to which AI progress is data bound is under appreciated by most

Open weight Kimi K3 performs at Claude Fable 5 level on 3D arcade games! We gave both models the same prompts: ✦ Pac-Man with four hunting ghosts ✦ Nokia Snake remade in 3D ✦ Retro space pinball table with real physics Outputs (thinking included): ✦ Kimi K3 (local, 8x B300): ~237K tokens, $0 ✦ Claude Fable 5: 92K tokens, $4.50 Every one of Kimi's tokens was free on our GPUs. Even via Moonshot's API the same Kimi run would be $3.60, still under Fable. Kimi held its quality against the strongest cloud model. Its snake is the liveliest scene of all six: soft shadows, floating dust, a flicking tongue, and a bot that checks it can still reach its own tail before every move. Fable's snake plays clean but looks flat next to it. Pac-Man is the closest call of the three. Kimi builds a fresh labyrinth on every restart and draws a live minimap in the corner while the red ghost tracks the player turn by turn through the corridors, and it even caught our bot on camera. Fable's maze answers with pearl pellets, +10 popups bursting over the floor and a wide-eyed cartoon ghost patrol. Fable won the pinball table: painted playfield art, a chrome ball that mirrors the neon lights, even little synth sound effects.

Gavin Baker: "which AI company actually survives? Google - already multi-trillion Microsoft, OpenAI, Meta chose open source - the only ones left is xAI and Anthropic - xAI + X will be worth over a trillion" this is him explaining what he actually invests in - and why Taiwan sells sand to Nvidia for $700 that Nvidia sells for $50,000 His words: what to invest in: "we're investing in things that increase the GPU utilization rate - because if you take a GPU from 30% utilized to 60%, you've doubled the output of that AI factory" what not to Invest in: "the models will basically go to zero - the data center is a commodity - energy might be short for a while but is also a commodity - the only thing in the whole stack with real value is the data moat and reinforcement learning" "the GPU has gotten 50 times faster in the last four years - that's a big part of why we're living through this AI revolution" he doesn't rent intelligence - he owns the thing it runs on bookmark & watch - see how below with local agent ↓

Mark Zuckerberg gets it right: “The defining question of our age isn’t whether superintelligence will exist, but who will have access to it. Will it be centralized and restricted to a few institutions, or will it be a tool that empowers everyone?” Concentration of power is the biggest risk of AI. When a small number of labs (working hand-in-glove with the administrative state) decide who has access to which model capabilities, they inevitably shape what can be said, known, and built. That’s not “safety.” It’s control. As Mark points out, the history of open source shows that broad access and transparency are usually the best path to actual security and resilience. Decentralization creates checks and balances on power. By contrast, centralized alternatives, like bureaucratic approval regimes and mandatory gatekeeping, typically produce regulatory capture and reinforce cartels. Personal superintelligence in everyone’s hands, with competing models and real data sovereignty, is a far better check on a dystopian future than self-appointed guardians who claim to be “aligned” with all of humanity.

NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra just set a world record for pre-training DeepSeek-V3 671B, achieving 1,648 TFLOPs per GPU. This is about 3x the earlier delivered performance of the previous generation, and is a result of our extreme co-design and continuous software optimization across popular frameworks including Megatron-Core, TorchTitan, and JAX.