@EhrmantrautCap_ @CitronResearch Maybe I’m turning into a conspiracy theorist. Is there any chance Citron did this piecework just to bring the price down while secretly loading up and being long? Who knows.
English
Thorin
175 posts
Thorin
@Thorin93
Memory, Storage, Photonics, CPUs, Quantum Security are the places to bet in 2026!
Katılım Ağustos 2025
45 Takip Edilen32 Takipçiler
I hope @CitronResearch already covered their $SNDK short position by now!
Citron Research@CitronResearch
Citron is Short $SNDK — They Don't Ring a Bell at the Top We don't need Anthropic to announce they're making NAND. Samsung is already the 800-pound gorilla, and they've been running this playbook for 30 years. While TV pundits pound the table herding retail into cattle cars, Western Digital, the long time investor, sold a significant portion of its holdings days ago, 25% lower. Ask yourself why. Because they know the cycle is approaching a peak, and they're not waiting for the bell. The market is pricing SanDisk like it's $NVDA. There's one problem: NVIDIA has a moat. SanDisk sells a commodity. We've seen this movie before 2008, 2012, 2018. It's never different this time. Memory is a cycle, and cycles peak. Samsung has a 30-year history of choosing market share over margins. They wait for pure-plays like SanDisk to get comfortable at 50% gross margins, then flip the switch. But this time it's worse. Every $SNDK bull should read attached article Samsung just told the world they won't sell anything under 50% margins and they're moving their best chips into the same premium SSD market SanDisk calls home. They're not just the capacity gorilla anymore. They're going after SanDisk's best customers with cheaper, newer technology. And the only thing keeping supply tight right now? Samsung's temporary yield problems in another product line. That bottleneck has an expiration date. With double the capacity of the 2018 peak waiting in the wings, this "shortage" is a supply mirage that can vanish in a single earnings call. Hockey shout-out: Shorting $SNDK is skating to where the puck is going. By the time the cycle normalizes, this stock will already be much lower. technetbooks.com/2026/02/samsun…
English
@GoldmanSpacs_ Could it be the recent grant from Texas or just the leading to earnings?
English
@ExtensiveRsrch I called out $AAOI at like $30 and it's like $160 now?
Less likely to 3x as fast but next year it's possible if they become largest 1.6T + laser fab capacity in US.
English
As for 3x brrrs these levels:
1. $SIVE
2. MSSCORP (6830)
3. Auros (322310)
Are my best guesses. Here's my thought process:
1. $SIVE: I genuinely do see them being $10B+ next year, they're the literal bleeding edge for CPO lasers alongside $LITE and $COHR.
At a $1.3B MC... For likely mapping:
Photonics: $AMD CPO, $MRVL Celestial CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, ALChip, GUC, O-Net (ELS), $POET.
For Space + Defense: Golden Dome via $YSS, $RTX / $ERIC / Bae Systems.
Silicon Photonics: $AAPL (Apple Watches).
This is just a stupid amount of customers and it's still increasing.
They can always TAM expansion downstream through IP acquisitions or vertically integrate to speedrun $LITE's $60B MC one day once they get more funding.
2. MSSCORP (6830): CPO monopoly over inspection at ~$1.2B.
100% monopoly over CPO yields, $TSM, $AMAT, $NVDA, $LCRX, $INTC, and others are all likely customers.
"The company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market"
This basically means 100%, they just don't want antitrust. If they defend their monopoly and CPO ramps, can easily see this worth ~$5B-$9B from $1.2B
3. Auros (322310): Samsung / SK Hynix supplier at ~$210M for Hybrid Bonding Metrology.
Basically pure play on two products:
-> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology.
---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding.
-> Thin-film thickness measurement.
---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (either Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year.
They've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two products from years of qualification H2 this year.
Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market?
Of course, not sure how they play out and this is all speculative but high confidence supply chain mapping.
But off the top of my head these three that I own are the most likely ones at this level.
TheNewAL 🌾@Mellokhai
@aleabitoreddit Stay with us and Give us some more x3 brrrrrr
English
@DataCenterMilly @Nietschecapital I get what you mean. But NFLX was going through that M&A mess around that time, so unsure if that’s a good example.
English
@Nietschecapital Because anyone who splits their stock ruins it.
Ask CMG AMZN NFLX and every other one.
English
can someone explain to me how $sndk hasn't done a stock split
English
@hacker_Yogi_1 @StormDirac I don’t get it. Could you elaborate more on the possible reason for the drop from 5.45 to 4.9?
English
In my opinion here is what will happen:
1. At Swedish Market open. Due to differences in price between $SIVE and $SIVEF end of day Friday. The swedish market will first gap up to fill the demand difference.
2. Then the Limit Sell orders will trigger, which will cause a sharp drop like today it dropped from $5.45 to $4.9, in under 2 mins.
3. At some point during the day an equilibrium will be found ending around $5.15 USD.
4. Starting tuesday it will start to Gap up.
English
@PhotonCap @BeardedxScholar Now what happened? It gave away almost all the gains of the day :/
English
@BeardedxScholar 이게 서로 연관이있나요?
제가 시스템을 잘 모르겠어요, 찾아봐도 독립적이라고 하고...
한국어
I don't think I bought enough $SIVE still, do you? 😭
Average is 18 SEK, with 15% portfolio.
Easy 2x in the next few months, and 10x in 1-2 years.
English
@AIStockSavvy $SNDK
Cantor Fitzgerald raises PT to $1800
Susquehanna raises PT to $2000
English
$SNDK | 𝐒𝐚𝐧𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐤: Bernstein raises 𝐏𝐓 𝐭𝐨 $𝟏,𝟕𝟎𝟎, reiterates 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦, 'Nosebleed ASPs'
Analyst sees strong pricing environment and earnings momentum driving sharp estimate upgrades, supporting significant upside.
English
@labubu_trader Agree! It should at least be trading at fwd multiples of HDD manufacturers.
English
Actually, I think the ER/guidance was mostly priced in.
But the earnings call mentioned the new business model, which introduced flexible multi-year contracts (1/3/5 years, locked price + adjustable price). Customers have to pay for the contracts continuously even if they don’t need the products anymore.
To me, there is no difference from SaaS’s subscription business model. It’s a shame we give SaaS companies much higher PE multiples given their much lower growth rates and net margins.
We all know SNDK’s price is capped by the low PE multiple as the market trades it as a pure cyclical name.
But with this new business model, I believe things will change and we will see multiple expansion on SNDK.
Bullish.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
$SNDK earnings are just way too good... Q3 earnings: Revenue: $5.95B vs. ~$4.7B (252% Y/Y growth, 26% beat) EPS: $23.41 vs. ~$14.5 (62% beat) Gross Margin: ~78.4% vs. 67.3% (+1,110 bps vs. Est.) Q4 2024 projections: Revenue: $7.75B-$8.25B vs. ~$6.5B (23% above estimates) EPS: $30-33 vs. ~$23 (37.0% above estimates) Memory companies (disclosure I do own Sandisk) are a bit easier to price in ahead of time vs. names like $RDDT (off of traffic data). Just purely from third party stuff like NAND price hike reports... so all the repricing does happen ahead of time, not on actual earnings. Regardless, this is formal confirmation that memory companies are going brrr... Astronomical earnings from memory players and they'll likely keep marching upward over this year.
English
No reason what I can see, probably as you say. Traders don't like to hold over weekends in case anything happens I guess. OTC SIVEF closed at $4.82 [44.49 SEK] which is way above the SIVE closing of 38.00.
I'm still in for the long run so these fluctuations is not important for me at the moment.
English
Just remembered something that we dug up a couple of years ago, and it solidifies our firm belief that Sivers ( $SIVE / $SIVEF ) already has a direct connection to Celestial AI. 🚨
While retail algos panic-sold the Marvell/POET cancellation thinking the bridge was burned, smart money knows how to follow the financial footprints.
Let’s look at a Sivers corporate presentation from a while back. They listed their anonymous "Optical I/O" clients (Customer B, C, and D) alongside Ayar Labs, and dropped a highly specific clue: These anonymous clients raised a combined $250 million in 2023.
Now, let's look at the major Silicon Photonics networking companies that raised capital in 2023:
▪️ Lightmatter: Raised $154 million (Dec 2023).
▪️ Celestial AI: Raised $100 million (Jun 2023).
$154M + $100M = $254 million.
The math perfectly matches the Sivers slide.
What does this mean?
It proves that Sivers wasn't just blindly supplying lasers through a middleman. According to their own presentation, Celestial AI (now Marvell) and Lightmatter are their direct customers.
When Marvell fires a packaging partner for breaching an NDA, the need for the physical light engine doesn't vanish. The technical "co-design" relationship between the system architect (Celestial AI) and the foundational laser foundry ($SIVE) was already established years ago.
Algorithms trade headlines. Fundamental investors trade the supply chain reality. ⏳🔥
$SIVE $SIVEF #DeepTech #SiliconPhotonics #AI
English
@suedetrades Let it settle down. Usually does during or just after earnings call.
English
@Million_Sancet Volume was significantly higher over Stockholm exchange but geez the people here can learn a thing or two about conviction from the other side of the Atlantic Ocean!
English
