Tim Reardon (@TimReardon2) - Twitter Profili | Zamantika Mersobahis Locabet

Tim Reardon@TimReardon2·22h

@AlanKohler @abcnews The idea that Australia has “overbuilt” housing because population growth divided by 2.5 is less than dwelling growth misunderstands the drivers of housing demand. Let them live in houses. My response to the misinformation in this article: linkedin.com/pulse/angus-ta…

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Alan Kohler@AlanKohler·2d

This week's column for @abcnews in which I explain why Angus Taylor's immigration/housing policy would not result in a cut to immigration and suggest that migration should be run by an independent body like the Reserve Bank. abc.net.au/news/2026-05-2…

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Tim Reardon@TimReardon2·1d

@cmkusher @ajamesbragg Which became necessary because state governments forced foreign super companies from building new homes.

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Cameron Kusher@cmkusher·1d

Good article from @ajamesbragg this budget is all about driving investors out of the housing market and opening the door for superannuation funds. afr.com/policy/economy…

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Tim Reardon@TimReardon2·3d

@james00000001 So why does Treasury say it will reduce supply of homes by 35k?

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James One 😷@james00000001·3d

Reflecting back on Labor's budget, it's really clear how brilliant it is, and how well timed it is, for impacts on housing. Building materials and labour is ballooning again, pricing non-investors out of new builds. So driving investors to new builds will result in more homes.

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Tim Reardon@TimReardon2·4d

@cmkusher Yes. It's cheaper to take illicit drugs is one part of the problem. Black market products is another...

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Tim Reardon@TimReardon2·6d

@just_brash Businesses pay different taxes to people, because they aren't people. People that own businesses also pay PAYG taxes, after they pay business taxes. The error in your logic is to think that there is such a thing as business people.

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Justin Brash@just_brash·6d

Why should business people and investors pay less tax than PAYG workers?

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Tim Reardon@TimReardon2·6d

@TMFScottP By rusted, the Treasurer, Treasury and Min for Housing are stating that the Neg Gearing changes will reduce supply, increase prices and rents.

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Scott Phillips@TMFScottP·6d

The blatant self-interest dressed up as national interest on NG and CGT is not surprising but pretty ordinary. Yes, there are some who genuinely think the changes aren't in the national interest... but they're the exception, not the rule. It's fair for asset owners to pay more

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Tim Reardon@TimReardon2·6d

@TMFScottP The 75,000 is not additional new homes. That is those supported by government FHB policies, so largely BAU. The Neg Gearing changes reduces supply by 35k and the growth in spending on infrastructure adds 65k home, according to the budget.

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Scott Phillips@TMFScottP·12 May

'Reduce house price growth by 2%... ... reduce supply by 0.25%... ... 75,000 homeowners over 10 years' (7,500 per year). Not nothing, but almost indistinguishable from it! #Budget2026

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Tim Reardon@TimReardon2·6d

@cmkusher And then supply declines, and the problem gets worse! The problem isn't a lack of FHB ownership or high prices. They are the symptoms of a deficet of housing and we can't increase supply with more taxes.

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Cameron Kusher@cmkusher·20 May

📣 I am not a fan of this federal budget for property but I believe it will help first home buyers. In making established housing less appealing to investors I expect will afford first home buyers some breathing room and less competition from investors. I expect that overall level of investment in housing will also fall as investing in new housing is not as attractive for many would-be investors as investing in established homes. open.substack.com/pub/ozproperty…

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Tim Reardon@TimReardon2·20 May

@QuentinDempster Why does the Budget papers say that this initiative will lead to fewer new homes being build? Page 158 of Paper #1. What do they know that others don't?

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Quentin Dempster@QuentinDempster·18 May

Negatively gear a new house for the rental market. Now that’s a mutually constructive tax break .. in yours and the national interest. LNP/PHON will vote against this? Whatever happened to “aspiration”?

Clare O'Neil MP@ClareONeilMP

If you want to get ahead through property investment, we'll back you in. But to get access to those generous concessions, we want you to build a new home for the nation.

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Tim Reardon@TimReardon2·20 May

@PeteWargent Is this why we are taxing homes more?

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Pete Wargent@PeteWargent·19 May

Stats afr.com/companies/heal…

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Tim Reardon@TimReardon2·20 May

@Ben_Davison1 Ben, if you are interested in the topic of forecasting demand for housing, the report below will assist. The NHSAC also have a good report. 2.4 is not a standard. We need to build more than 100k without migration or economic growth. Let the live in houses. hia.com.au/our-industry/e…

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Ben Davison@Ben_Davison1·19 May

Population to housing isn’t a 1:1 relationship People have partners, kids, housemates, elderly parents The standard is 2.4 people per dwelling That means we’re building more than enough homes to meet the demand So what’s the barrier? CGT & Neg Gearing distorting valuations!

Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk

Fun facts: In the 15 years since September 2011, the number of dwellings has increased by 2.395 million. Population (natural & immigration) has increased by 5.292 million people. Assuming 2.4 people per dwelling (a conservative estimate) there has been "over building" of 190,000 dwellings. At 2.5 people per dwelling (the latest estimate) there has been over building totalling 279,000 dwellings.

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Tim Reardon@TimReardon2·20 May

@PeteWargent @LouiChristopher @SQMResearch Housing starts are locked in for this year. So it will take some time for the decline in housing starts to result in higher rents, that is when the renters lose more market power. I wonder what tax increases we might introduce then?

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Pete Wargent@PeteWargent·19 May

An index that will get some attention over the coming months... Asking rents over the past week Houses +0.4pc Units +0.7pc Combined 0.5pc (SQM Research) @LouiChristopher @SQMResearch #ausbiz

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Tim Reardon@TimReardon2·20 May

“Fun facts” like this are a good example of why housing analysis can go badly wrong when complex housing demand is reduced to a single division sum. Let them live in houses.

Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk

Fun facts: In the 15 years since September 2011, the number of dwellings has increased by 2.395 million. Population (natural & immigration) has increased by 5.292 million people. Assuming 2.4 people per dwelling (a conservative estimate) there has been "over building" of 190,000 dwellings. At 2.5 people per dwelling (the latest estimate) there has been over building totalling 279,000 dwellings.

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Tim Reardon@TimReardon2·20 May

@TheKouk @Scutty Vacant homes are stable in Au, and consistent with other developed economies. They aren't the cause of our rising home prices. That is caused by demand rising faster than supply.

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Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk·19 May

@Scutty There are quite a few places with zero occupants

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Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk·19 May

Fun facts: In the 15 years since September 2011, the number of dwellings has increased by 2.395 million. Population (natural & immigration) has increased by 5.292 million people. Assuming 2.4 people per dwelling (a conservative estimate) there has been "over building" of 190,000 dwellings. At 2.5 people per dwelling (the latest estimate) there has been over building totalling 279,000 dwellings.

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Tim Reardon@TimReardon2·20 May

@SnapBackAU @TheKouk And Air BnB data doesn't include the decline in serviced apartments. Short term rental accommodation is a part of a well functioning housing market. We are allowed to have holidays, and we are allowed to have enough homes for everyone and some more. Let them live in homes.

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SnapBackAU@SnapBackAU·19 May

@TheKouk This is just the AirBnb numbers not including their competitors.

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Tim Reardon@TimReardon2·20 May

@patcostello1 @TheKouk You can find that here:

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Pat Costello@patcostello1·19 May

@TheKouk Do you know the proportion of 1 bedroom dwellings, 2 bedroom dwellings, etc....? To assume 2.4 people per dwelling it is also assumed they are all 2 bedroom dwellings?

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Tim Reardon@TimReardon2·20 May

@macfergie83 @TheKouk The definition of a home requires by the ABS requires a kitchen and bathroom that is not shared. So as a general rule, dormitories are not homes. B2R student accomodation is generally considered a home. Single bed studio units for students are included. Depends on the design.

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Scott Ferguson@macfergie83·19 May

@TheKouk Does this count student accommodation 100,000+ single bed dwelling university beds as dwellings?

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Tim Reardon@TimReardon2·20 May

@TheKouk @Chatarce1 Knock downs account for around 25k, from the 200k new homes built each year, and are a part of our base demand. Changing demographics and rising wealth are other contributors to rising demand for homes, in the absence of pop or economic growth.

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Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk·19 May

@Chatarce1 Thanks for confirming how much of a dullard you are. The data I use is the increase in the dwelling stock - that takes account of knock downs.

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Tim Reardon@TimReardon2·20 May

@TheKouk @patcostello1 The density of new homes is lower than that of established homes and is less than 2.4. The ACT has the largest houses in AU, but 70% of homes built in the ACT are apartments, and they aren't included in the Math. Houses v homes, new v established are different.

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Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk·19 May

@patcostello1 Huh? It's 2.5 people per dwelling on average. As I noted. Average dwelling size in Australia is the largest in the world, just by the way

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Tim Reardon

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