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Imagine thinking there is a better hitting prospect in the world than Munetaka Murakami
Tom Mussa v2@tom_mussa_v2
A SKYSCRAPER OF A HOMERUN FOR MURAKAMI’S 47TH! His second of the night makes it 6-3 Swallows!
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Nostra Thomas
10.2K posts
Nostra Thomas
@TomTrudeau
Projections truther. Co-owner @StatlineScout Former @MLB @NBA & @Mojo “One of those analytical model is god never seen dudes actually play before type guy”
New York, NY Katılım Şubat 2009
1.2K Takip Edilen3.3K Takipçiler
@fantasyguru43 @ne_nature @StatlineScout All models project Nola and Castillo to be better than their unsightly ERA. They aren’t this bad.
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Buy low SP comparing ERA to projected ERA in Oopsy (the @StatlineScout model)
1. Nick Lodolo (-3.44)
2. Garrett Crochet (-3.25)
3. Luis Castillo (-2.63, lost rotation spot)
4. Aaron Nola (-1.97)
5. Jack Flaherty (-1.55)
Others include Eury, Luzardo, Webb, Gilbert, Sheehan
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Angels' SP Grayson Rodriguez is a juicy buy low target.
@steamerpro and Oopsy (@StatlineScout model) project 3.80 and 3.57 ERA in 16 starts (top ~30-40 SP). He cruised through the minors before he was roughed up in his debut, but stuff / velo looks good.
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@discussbaseball Jump >> Lin >>> Arnold is the rank in @StatlineScout model. Lin and Arnold don't need to be rostered in vast majority of dynasty leagues and none of them project below a 4 ERA as a starter (for now, Jump is the closest).
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It’s always Jamie Arnold this, Gage Jump that…how about another LHP in the A’s farm? Wei-En Lin.
In AA this season: 34 IP, 1.85 ERA, 2.62 FIP, 11.38 K/9. 20 years old from Taiwan.
Take a peek at his changeup…
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Nostra Thomas@TomTrudeau
⭐️ 3-3.9 WAR club in @StatlineScout (excl. C) Franklin Arias, S. Walcott, A.J. Ewing, Aidan Miller, Colt Emerson, Henry Bolte, Dax Kilby, C. Bonemer, Jett Williams, Luis Pena, Max Clark, L. De Vries, Luis Lara , Sam Antonacci, Jesus Made, D. Fitz-Gerald, Walker Jenkins, J Lawlar
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Five prospects with impressive recent Statcast data?
- Eduardo Rivera, Red Sox
- Angel Genao, Guardians
- Luis Lara, Brewers
- Kaelen Culpepper, Twins
- Edwin Arroyo, Reds
buff.ly/wCxYPH2
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@Haleybertonee Kenji was 30 when he debuted and was still a plus hitter, so he’s not even that bad
Yoshida was 111 wrc+ at age 29 debut. Jung Hoo Lee is a miss but he was still plus
Seems pretty good to me and many hitter pop out performed the expectations
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@TomTrudeau I think there a lot more "blemishes" or busts than Kenji. Yoshida, Jung Hoo Lee, Dae-Ho Lee (although he was a lot older when he went to MLB) have all been a lot worse than expected.
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All-time, age 27, peak projected wRC+ leaders for NPB/KBO hitters based only on each player's pre-MLB debut NPB/KBO age/stats.
Glad Ohtani pops at no. 1. Too bad Matsui didn't come at a younger age. Sato power is real. Kenji Johjima is the blemish on the model's track record.
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Mets prospect Chris Suero 📈 checks every box for being overlooked:
Low BABIP ✅
Primary C ✅
Elevated K% ✅
Whack @fangraphs grade ✅
Profiles as 20/20 regular in OF. 3+ WAR projection in @StatlineScout model despite a sub 10% @Fantrax ownership.
x.com/i/status/20554…
Binghamton Rumble Ponies@RumblePoniesBB
"He rakes in Somerset." Chris Suero (@Mets No. 14 prospect) leaves the yard for the second time this series! He has 7️⃣ home runs this season. Binghamton trails by four in the eighth inning. 🎠x #DefendOurHome x @MetsPlayerDev
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Nostra Thomas@TomTrudeau
⭐️ 3-3.9 WAR club in @StatlineScout (excl. C) Franklin Arias, S. Walcott, A.J. Ewing, Aidan Miller, Colt Emerson, Henry Bolte, Dax Kilby, C. Bonemer, Jett Williams, Luis Pena, Max Clark, L. De Vries, Luis Lara , Sam Antonacci, Jesus Made, D. Fitz-Gerald, Walker Jenkins, J Lawlar
QME
4+ WAR club in the @StatlineScout model among rookie-eligible prospect bats:
- Konnor Griffin (4.8)
- Emmanuel Rodriguez (4.1) 👀
- Munetaka Murakami (4.0)
It's cool to whiff a ton if you can do other stuff at an elite level.
x.com/i/status/20514…
Milb Central@milb_central
Emmanuel Rodriguez to start the year: .247 AVG | 9 XBH | 18 RBI | .417 OBP #Twins
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⭐️ 3-3.9 WAR club in @StatlineScout (excl. C)
Franklin Arias, S. Walcott, A.J. Ewing, Aidan Miller, Colt Emerson, Henry Bolte, Dax Kilby, C. Bonemer, Jett Williams, Luis Pena, Max Clark, L. De Vries, Luis Lara , Sam Antonacci, Jesus Made, D. Fitz-Gerald, Walker Jenkins, J Lawlar
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@RotoWire It could take some time but long-term you're still not high enough on Bolte.
x.com/TomTrudeau/sta…
Nostra Thomas@TomTrudeau
A's OF prospect Henry Bolte has a 40+ grade in @fangraphs but he is 10th among prospect eligible bats by peak projected WAR in the @StatlineScout model. He is 3rd among prospects in per PA fantasy value fueled by a 600 PA projection of 20 HR and 34 SB at peak. BUY BUY BUY.
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Looking for prospect call-ups, saves help and bid recommendations? This week’s MLB FAAB Factor has got you covered at every position🔥
⚡️Henry Bolte (ATH, OF): The 22-year-old slashed .415/.461/.783 with 10 HRs and 11 steals in his last 24 Triple-A games before going 2-for-2 with a walk in his MLB debut.
🔵A.J. Ewing (NYM, OF): The 21-year-old made an instant impact in his MLB debut with a triple, three walks, two RBI, and a stolen base.
🟠Samuel Basallo (BAL, C): The 21-year-old has slashed .403/.439/.645 with 12 RBI over his last 19 games and is now set to face left-handed pitching full-time.
Dive into the full breakdown of FAAB pickups to make this week 👇
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Zack Gelof has looped back around from a sell high in '23 when he had a 132 wRC+ in '23 to a buy high before managers fall back in love. His 2.9 peak WAR projection in @StatlineScout is good for 139th in pro baseball (includes all prospects). 20/20 fantasy-friendly profile.
Nostra Thomas@TomTrudeau
Zack Gelof is 🔥 But I think his value has PEAKED Here are a few sell high trade🎯
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@burress_nathan Took a closer look at Kenji Johjima case and it's not as bad as I thought. He came at age 30, not 27, and had a 105 wrc+ in his first MLB season with the Mariners. So 121 at peak is still too high but much calmer about it!
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@TomTrudeau Kenji landing in Seattle probably hurt him a lot.
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@StatlineScout I would not mind a non catcher list to filter out Duno. Just my $0.02
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Nostra Thomas retweetledi
The OOPSY Peak Model top 10 healthy & qualified hitting prospects by WAR!
1. Konnor Griffin 🎥
2. Franklin Arias
3. Rainiel Rodriguez
4. Alfredo Duno
5. A.J. Ewing
6. Colt Emerson
7. Henry Bolte 👀
8. Jett Williams
9. Caleb Bonemer
10. Luis Lara 👀
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@nwcodad Teruaki Sato could be in the Majors next year at 28. Shota Morishita is his 25 year old teammate and has a 113 peak wrc+. The model will be skeptical of young bats until they develop a big enough sample, otherwise Ahn and Kim (KBO) would be higher. Those two have the most upside.
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@TomTrudeau What's the best projection for a current pre-peak NPB player? Looks like a down period for Japanese positional talent if there's nobody under 25 in NPB who makes this list.
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@LouisAnalysis I have seen nuggets of data from the WBC that his stuff+ is better than what we'd guess based on FB velo.
This is the K-BB% leaders taking an average of 3 approaches I took to modeling NPB arms peak K-BB in the Majors. . Sasaki is a blemish on the model (for now).
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@TomTrudeau I agree, but I also think some of these have a higher ceiling than Miyagi - even as good as Miyagi has been.
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Shunpeita Yamashita's TJ surgery takes out the top Japanese pitching prospect.
But the talent in place remains elite:
1. Kosei Shoji (25 y/o)
2. Kota Tatsu (22 y/o)
3. Haruki Hosono (24 y/o)
4. Haruto Takahashi (23 y/o)
5. Yumeto Kanemaru (23 y/o)
Filipino
@MLB Still not high enough on AJ Ewing x.com/TomTrudeau/sta…
Nostra Thomas@TomTrudeau
Before his MLB debut, Mets prospect AJ Ewing had a peak projection in @StatlineScout of 3.5 WAR (5th best among MiLB hitters), 110 wRC+, 13 HR, 35 SB. He is years away from peak, but a buy high is warranted based on where he's ranked on other popular sources.
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