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@wanderingshane @RinkSold @SamBlum3 @jaysonst Oh for sure. I hope he makes it work here, if for no other reason than his success will open the doors to different types of Japanese hitters. Still blows my mind that Wlad Balentien didn't get another chance in MLB after he clubbed 60HR in Japan.

@nwcodad @RinkSold @SamBlum3 @jaysonst for sure on the sample size. He’s a fascinating player to watch. even if he flames out, he could go back to npb if he wanted to.

Munetaka Murakami knows that his free agency stalled. He's aware that many teams didn't believe he could perform at the MLB level. "It’s just about proving to the doubters how much I can play in this league." Story on Murakami, with his thoughts: nytimes.com/athletic/72744…

@MeetTheMets31 @mike_petriello And walks. And HBP. More accurate simple-ish math: 35% K%; 15% BB+HBP (elite); 8% HR (36/600PA); 42% balls in play at a .265 BABIP, and 6% of hits going for doubles... That's something like a .200/.300/.400 hitter (.182/.305/.406 on those assumptions).

@MeetTheMets31 @mike_petriello You're missing HR, which aren't considered "in play." Still not great though.

The Munetaka Murakami K% watch is, as expected, heading up. The key now is if he can adjust to get it back down under 35%. It's really, *really* hard to be a successful hitter north of that mark for very long. #statcast-pitcher-rolling-stats-line-chart" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/…

@doyalikedagss @mike_petriello The results are heading in the wrong direction too. In all cases the samples are tiny though. Far, far too early to know what kind of hitter he'll be or whether he can make his extreme three true outcomes game work long-term.

@mike_petriello Me watchin Murakami’s 40th bomb “But his k rate”

@wanderingshane @RinkSold @SamBlum3 @jaysonst Ha. Interesting, but the sample size is 33 hits. Here's wOBA, which at least accounts for every PA. Above all it's just too early. If he can keep the Ks around 30% he could be good/great. At 33-35% he *might* still be ok or good. At 38% or higher he's probably out of MLB by 2028.

@nwcodad @RinkSold @SamBlum3 @jaysonst Mike P is now on it too

@wood_back @mike_petriello SLG doesn't look much better though, so it's not like he's racking up singles in those zones either. Here are a few more. TL:DR don't pitch this guy middle in or low in the zone (or middle-middle, but you shouldn't pitch anyone there).

@wood_back @mike_petriello Since we're talking ISO the sample size is 33 hits, broken down as follows.

@RinkSold @wanderingshane @SamBlum3 @jaysonst If he gets the K% closer to 30 while still walking and hitting for power that could change the narrative and force teams to admit they were wrong. If not, even if he ends 2026 with good numbers I think the Ks will scare most teams off and keep his 2nd contract (relatively) small.

@RinkSold @wanderingshane @SamBlum3 @jaysonst Definitely realistic but I don't think that will put doubts to bed. Sano put up wRC+'s of 149, 125, and 138. Gallo had a 144 wRC+ season. Both were cooked by 28. There just aren't many (any?) examples of sustained multi-year success from guys who K in 35% or more of their PAs.

@talk_mariners @Harrisrn86 @TJStats Eh, I think the Ms should get guys out of Everett as fast as possible. Arkansas swings far in the other direction but I have to think it's hard to convince kids they need to improve when they're hitting HRs to the power alleys that wouldn't even be warning track shots elsewhere.

@Harrisrn86 @nwcodad @TJStats Still very young for High A too. He will benefit from sticking there the whole season imo

Mariners Prospect Ranks #3 Colt Emerson #5 Ryan Sloan #18 Kade Anderson #53 Michael Arroyo #77 Lazaro Montes Think Sloan is premature. Kade is low. Would agree with Arroyo and Laz. I would think Stevenson and Celestin are knocking on the door. Credit: @TJStats

@RinkSold @wanderingshane @SamBlum3 @jaysonst OTOH if he plays like he did in March/April moving forward a 9-figure contract would absolutely be in the cards. But if the 40%+ K% continues it's hard to see him proving the doubters wrong. Even Gallo (when he was good) never struck out that much and he had defensive value.

@RinkSold @wanderingshane @SamBlum3 @jaysonst It's just too early to draw any conclusions. He had a great March/April but over his last 15 games his Ks have spiked to above 40% and his wRC+ has dipped down to 97. Could just be a blip, could be the league adjusting. We'll know more in a couple months.

@wanderingshane @RinkSold @SamBlum3 @jaysonst And I know not every fan buys into WAR but there's mountains of evidence that all 30 teams do.

@wanderingshane @RinkSold @SamBlum3 @jaysonst It is, but it's not the kind of performance that's going to get a defensively limited player a huge second contract. A 1B with a 118 wRC+ is a roughly average (2-2.5 WAR) player, depending on defense. Tork did that exactly last year and was worth 2.3 fWAR.

@Harrisrn86 @TJStats @talk_mariners I'd love to see some changes to the park that make it a bit easier to evaluate Ms prospects before they reach the high minors. I'm not saying Celesten is one of them, but there have been a lot of Everett mirages over the years and it can't make player development easy.

@Harrisrn86 @TJStats @talk_mariners We'll see when the samples get bigger. A 1.165 OPS is good in any park and never *entirely* park-driven, but his next road HR will be his first. I want to see him perform on the road (or ideally in Arkansas) before I buy in completely.

@TJStats @talk_mariners I'm normally lower than most on Ms prospects but I think you're underselling Anderson's FB a bit. He's sitting 93-95 and touching 97 more consistently now and it's always played up due to its carry and his delivery. I've seen it rated as high as a 70. Velocity isn't everything.

@talk_mariners I like Kade but more for his floor than his ceiling. He’s tearing up AA, which is awesome to see, but the fastball seems to be pitch that is holding him back for me. Still really great profile

@Harrisrn86 @TJStats @talk_mariners I'm a broken record on this but you need to be careful with Everett stats (for all Aquasox, not just Celesten). It's a small HS park with funky dimensions that make it an easy place to hit. Celesten's hitting .400/.492/.673 at home vs .263/.380/.333 away so far.

@TJStats @talk_mariners How far off is Celestine? Feels like he is finally coming into what he was projected to be.

@TJStats That's a big bet on Sloan's upside when he's been so hittable so far. How much leash do you give before the performance needs to start matching the stuff a bit better?

My Top 100 Prospects! This is my second major update for the 2026 season. Even with just over a month's worth of games, there is some significant movement thanks to notable power gains and mechanical changes. Check it out here: tjstats.ca/2026/05/13/top…

@JeremyWingert79 Ok, some others for your consideration: A Visit from the Goon Squad Candy House The Goldfinch The Shadow of the Wind

@nwcodad I have, and I remember liking it quite a lot.

I'm taking an epic week-long solo trip to Belgium & Austria soon. I'm out of my mind with excitement. It's taking every ounce of restraint not to bury these words in exclamation points. Also, today is my 15-year anniversary. And it's complicated. But I'm grateful for that too.