Tonx
178 posts
A clear rejection on the first level of support for $TAO.
Not great.
It needs to break that level for some momentum to be gained back into the markets.
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@astronomer_zero Pretty impressing Astro! unfortunatly at the time you were not on my radar 😆. If you look at the bigger picture today what's your take? Bottom in 2026, and after that? Maybe you've posted it some time ago, but I couldn't find it. So an update would be much appreciated! tia 🙏🏻
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$BTC
Posted more than a year in advance. I was one of the earliest to estimate the top...
And it all played out perfectly...
... is what the engagement farmer would say.
But that is not my goal. That is not how I leave my footprints.
Because yes, it was a "great" call. But meanwhile, other charts crossed my mind.
Yes I sold some spot and closed all leverage at 125k, as you all know.
But, I didn't act any further. I didn't short, I didn't sell everything, I didn't post or even frame a clear frame idea. I didn't flip bearish off 125k for long enough to be meaningful enough as a top call.
Why? Because I had other ideas at the forefront, of expecting one more push above 125k, and it didn't happen, so I had to adjust further down.
One thing you will never see me do, and that is rewriting history.
My trading record, is set in stone. And 90% of those marks are written on X.
Chart: accurate.
Actions: not accurate because I posted other charts too and by the time we reached the top, my idea morphed.
That's honest. And from honesty, comes a good review.
That's how growth continues.
Astronomer@astronomer_zero
$BTC Getting closer and closer to Early Peak scenario as of currently. Would be an interesting curveball this cycle.
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@CredibleCrypto You're very welcome! I think few people understand the hundreds of even thousands of hours youv'e spend to get to this level. And can realy value that you are sharing al this knowledge for free! So thanks again broth! 🙏🏻🫡
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Alright folks, Part 1 of my new market update is now LIVE.
Our key HTF level of 74k $BTC has been breached, what does this mean for the future of Bitcoin?
I break down both bullish and bearish possibilities and explain the rationale behind each.
*Note: This was recorded a little over 24 hours ago- and while we are trading a bit lower on Bitcoin vs when I recorded- everything discussed in the video is still just as relevant.*
Likes/shares always appreciated! Link to watch is below 👇
youtu.be/xVxjLxyAXWQ
YouTube
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@CredibleCrypto Absolutly top notch education how to look at the cryptomarket. A must see for anyone who wants to go beyond the indicators. 🎯
You must have put a lot of time in it Cred! Thanks very much for sharing ! 🙏🏻
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This is a phenomenal chart.
The current Z-Score of $BTC is lower than during the bear market bottom in 2015, 2018, COVID crash 2020 and 2022.
That's how deep we're in the bear market, and yes, we're close to the end of it.
Credits to @JamesEastonUK.
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@CryptoMichNL The btc/gold indicator reflects riskassets vs safehaven. In geopolitical dire times gold and silver go ballistic. Current onflicts take time to resolve and can easely escalate. So gold & silver may retrace 20% and btc gets finnaly its 100/110K reliefbounce, but a bullmarkt???
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To be fair, I think almost everyone has been wrong about the cycle and its timing.
In my opinion, we'd be rather close to a potential bottom in the bear market rather than a peak in the bull market.
The current metrics are at record lows for #Bitcoin vs. Gold.
Even worse than any low in the previous bear markets.
To me, that's the most important indicator.
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@Laura__crypto Thanks for your tips! But what's your take on IPC? not gearing up yet or on its way...? thanks!
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After $RIVER all time high here are #altcoin projects are gearing up for real moves:
RWA :
• $DUSK
• $ONDO
• $WELF
AI :
• $TAO
• $FET
• $ROSE
Cross-narrative Giants :
• $RENDER
• $ZRO
• $RUNE
Which one’s the next narrative leader? Drop your pick. 👇
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@Tonx262 Nice catch , those liquidation levels can really move the market. Staying ahead of them is key, which is why I follow Sykodelic Telegram channel for real-time updates and sharp analysis.
Search on Telegram “SykodelicTA” 👍
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This game is so frustrating sometimes.
I was just slightly too early on my 4H oversold long attempt.
We pushed slightly lower and then bounced from $87k.
That's the way it goes sometimes.
Interesting fact:
This is the most oversold 4H RSI since August 2024 when BTC puked on the Yen carry trade unwind.
That marked the bottom.
Pretty crazy to see the 4H here go as oversold as that.
Even if it is not the bottom, and even though my long got rekt... I'm expecting a bounce here now.
Sykodelic 🔪@Sykodelic_
Stopped out of my long already. Looks like option 3 straight down to $86k. For the overall move, this is best. Rip the bandaid off and get it over with. $86k we will long it hard 💪🏻
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Grayscale@Grayscale
The list of Top 20 performers in Q4 featured several privacy-related tokens, including @Zcash $ZEC, @monero $XMR, @Dashpay $DASH, @decredproject $DCR, @AttentionToken $BAT, and @BeldexCoin $BDX.
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@astronomer_zero Great call again Astro! juist curious: what about a lower drop to 81-82K for a double bottom . You consider that less probable? Thanx!
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$BTC shorts
Nice drop
Trimmed half here at 1.1 RR to make it risk free.
Main TP still at range low/higher low area where I take out another 30% to secure the W.
Last 20% is coverage if high timeframe long stops out. Don't think it will though.
Astronomer@astronomer_zero
$BTC low timeframe (do not read unless you are an advanced trader) Still rejecting here/stalling at deviation point, took a short. Low timeframe idea still very much in place. I know pulling a low timeframe short on top of a high timeframe bullish idea, will confuse many. That is why I put in the title this is only for experienced traders. On this platform, it is typically ashamed for if someone is bullish on one timeframe, bearish on the other as if you can only have one bias. Funny, as counter trade moves and hedges make sense all the time. But upon creating this page, I promised myself to always do and share exactly how I think and see the $BTC market keeping it real. Not posting what you want, but posting what I see. So I am ready for your criticism, and took the short. This is a hedge trade against the high timeframe long. Reasons on the chart. TP at higher low area.
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@CredibleCrypto Thanks for the update Cred, much appreciated! 🙏🏻
and yes i am positioned, added some at 0.39 today and waiting patiently 😃
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There is just not much to update..we remain above 74k and as per that last update (and the one prior to it) nothing changes above 74k and assuming it holds we are simply looking for the next impulse up to signal the start of the next move to new ATH.
I have thought about making a new update but it would really just be a re-iteration of what I said in the last, hence why I haven't made one yet.
As soon as I think there is something worth update on, I will record a new vid.
Ahmed Raza@AhmedRa5681030
@CredibleCrypto @yieldbasis What about YouTube market update bro? It's been over two months,since you recorded last one.
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@DoctorCatX Thank you, sir, for these crystal-clear analyses.
It's good to see you back, and I hope your health improves day by day.
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$BTC Bitcoin
Currently the most likely scenario is to range a bit here till 2026 to kill entirely the daily downtrend and eventually to pump to 98K-103K marking a major top at these levels between the 12th and 18th of January.
The bottom should be either in or mostly swept at 80K.
This pump if happens should represent a nice opportunity to derisk and protect capital as we are already in the crypto autumn scenario and even though the bull run and the super cycle are still in play, bullish trend on HTF and ATH are extremely unlikely for the next 6-12 months now when the uptrend is not active anymore on the weekly and biweekly timeframes.
On the daily you can see how the downtrend is wearing off as CS has entred the candles.
The best timing clarity comes from the biweekly timeframe where you can see how CS keeps respecting the candles with perfect accuracy on each specific date.
That's the reason why for the last two months ~92K was such a strong resistance.
Based on this timing model (past candles at CS acting as resistance):
- $91,351 is resistance till the 21st of December
- $89,164 is resistance between the 22nd of December and the 4th of January.
- the same resistance is elevated to $96,168 between the 5th and 18th of January which makes it the most likely period to attack higher prices like the obvious resistance of 98K (and probably a wick to the higher one at 103K).
As this is a 2W timeframes wicks in the resistance are not uncommon and significant in terms of price but it's very hard to close and hold above the resistance.
That's why for the next 2.5 weeks it will be very hard to start a rally above 89K.
Which gives time for the daily chart to range around and "kill" the thick bearish kumo by SSB going down and SSA going up. That's why if the bottom indeed is in the most likely scenario for the rest of the year is chop or very slight pushes to the upside which end up being rejected.
Zooming in further in this period which we take from the 2W timeframe, using the weekly cycles, you can see 15 (Kihon Suchi 17-2) weeks for a potential cycle high from ATH between the 12th and 18th of January which makes this week the perfect candidate for this major top scenario.
It's important to understand that while 103K and 98K are both key levels (98.4K and 103.4K to be precise), 98K is the SSB resistance at CS on the 3D which is very rarely touched during a downtrend and if it is normally it's very short-lived. So 103K should be significantly harder to come than 98K and if it comes it should be a pretty quick wick.
If the daily local bottom at 85K doesn't hold the next HTF levels are the weekly SSB at around 80K and biweekly SSA currently at around 77K and that is certainly possible.
But it seems like too many people are bearish and expecting 7 handle which makes this scenario less likely along with the daily chart losing bearish momentum.
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@astronomer_zero Yes, this helps. Liquidity is just apart of the picture, which many of us tend to focus on. thank you for clarification!
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Yes I did.
But for entries, in my personal view, just liquidity areas are not enough. It must be a confluences of multiples + a few strong levels and areas, such as our 0.25 level + purple zone for this trade, and it must be combined with a higher timeframe bias.
For targets tough, liquidity is enough as they act as fast magnets and give a local reaction usually, so that sets us up for quick payouts and is enough reason to exploit.
Hope this helps.
Tonx@Tonx262
@astronomer_zero the quality of your analyses and the consistancy of your actions in full view are great to follow and very rare in this space. so is your win rate! Thank you for sharing all this!When you took the long recently, did you consider the liquidity around 83k and 80k? Thanks!
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@astronomer_zero the quality of your analyses and the consistancy of your actions in full view are great to follow and very rare in this space. so is your win rate! Thank you for sharing all this!When you took the long recently, did you consider the liquidity around 83k and 80k? Thanks!
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Good question, and congrats on following the structure closely.
Sometimes price reacts very quickly off liquidity levels, both on entries and TPs. When that happens, BTC very often retests within ~$200, either minutes later or over the next few hours. That’s why staying calm and waiting is always worth it.
We saw that today around 86.4k, where I expected a range against the level, which increases the likelihood of retests. Same logic applies to 87.3k, stalls a bit here, but likely revisits as with most levels I give.
If you haven’t taken any profits yet, I personally would make this risk-free at this stage (NFA), as the structure already allowed for it, which is something I prioritize for consistency.
As for 90.2k: that’s the next major liquidity pocket, it aligns with the remaining CME gap and unfilled weekend flow. Weekly open exists too, but it’s a smaller target.
Hope that helps.
Luke Bruckard@LBruckard1989
@astronomer_zero Hi Astro I missed the TP. Got 4 wins but really wanted this long TP as well. Can you elaborate on if I could TP here 200$ lower, also on why 90.2k is the next target after? Thanks.
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@astronomer_zero btw; do you expect the retrace of btc shortly after the FOMC..? thx
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$ETH
The high timeframe bottom call, against the world.
Alright, bottom we drew out playing out pretty well so far last time we talked about $ETH.
Can't stress enough how, if the sentiment wasn't already bad on $BTC, how it was even much worse on $ETH at that time.
Sentiment does form with drawdown upon delay of usually 1/2 weeks. $ETH pulled back 40% where $BTC pulled back only 30% and indeed that sentiment peaked 1/2 weeks after the entire move down.
Especially now that everyone is suddenly celebrating (without anything to call for), I remind you how we identified this as certainly one of the worst sentiments we have seen this entire cycle.
Where big names not only started calling to "be careful" (the classic play-it-safe non sense we hear every single low). This bottom, we actually saw many sell their long term spot bags for the first time. Of mid sized players (1M-10M net worths) who haven't really performed any sells this entire cycle.
That seems scary, but it is not. In fact it is merely very telling what the sentiment is now.
No sentiment like this has ever created a bear market, and 2017 performed similar behavior . And while my models of this cycle are more adapted to institutional price action as this cycle is run by institutional players also on $ETH (in general, this just means more time between moves). The same dynamic of people who ran the 2017 markets, run the instructions now. Markets never change. That is why our trademarked analysis will never stop working.
So combine the sentiment and cyclical model with our analysis on $ETH prior posts, and that solidified that 2.8k had to be called the bottom.
Only a 20% move so far, yes. But with $ETH up a nice 8% up today, $BTC just 4%, It becomes clear towards what side the relative strength is shifting again. And given the timing of the move into the sentiment, and the celebrations with nothing to call for, the shows clear sidelined-ness in my books.
My actions
Great news for us IMO. This high timeframe call is the call supporting my big long term $ETH position which I heavily bought at 1.8k when we called the bottom in April. For the ones who remember.
We only took small profits at 4.7k after that move was successful, identifying the local top (confirmed with sentiment, lots of ATH celebrations, for the ones who remember, again).
Of course, with the pullback currently, that did put a large question mark whether those profits should have been bigger. Arguably, yes, since that was a big move.
But you all know I don't talk in hindsight, instead is to focus on taking trades and make calls in live time. Together with the other reasons we posted why $ETH going to 5k, having only a mere sweep of the high is a big reason to revisit 5k, even if the pullback in between would be large.
That "mere sweep" did happen in live time and was pointed out. Yes, the drop was scary, but now that we found the bottom, I remain convinced to be able to sell more of my bags above 5k, a lot more this time.
6k, 7k, 8k, 12k?
That still remains the question. You know how I feel about $ETH and how it can go a lot higher than what you originally think. So in all honesty, I don't know yet where exactly I will be selling.
I don't think it matters either. What matters is the bottom call at 2.8k. People worried about targets are just people who are sidelined (often, people without bags extend targets because they want to justify taking a position now).
So just realizing how, based on the sentiment back then, likely almost no one bought it, most sold it, is all that matters. It means our analysis of this bottom is valid. And so it means this is a safe position to continue holding until we see the same spot bags (not perps this time) ape. In 2017, this happened mostly at the very top.
Astronomer@astronomer_zero
$ETH, high timeframe Give it time, but 5k+ is coming. The same way everyone was bearish last time (see quoted tweet), calling cycle tops, saying the bear market has started and making their videos officially calling it, or, calling bearish retests, saying we will trend up, but only to make a lower lows, "The lower high thesis". This is how the timeline looked at the end of March. I'm sure you all remember it as Yesterday. And now, almost every single chart posted on X again is saying the exact same thing, at the end of November, exactly 8 months later. Yet both times, there was a big pool of liquidity above of a tiny sweep setup (see quoted tweet). Sweeps like these trick many, because they are seen as "false breakouts". Yet for large funds, 2% sweeps or false breakouts don't count as sweeps. They need 5% or more, or multiple closes for a false breakout. That is because the crypto markets have grown so big now that almost exclusively, whales large capital controls the movement. They don't trade with hard SL's, or wick based entries and exits. Instead, based on candle closes. To enhance the trickery, a tiny sweep usually gives a large pullback too, to really induce the "this is a top" feeling. Don't believe me? Look left in history, not a single top ended in a less than 2% sweep. It's a perfect setup, just like every setup in the $BTC / $ETH market. These may seem like nuances to many, but they are big differences to our system. My kind regards to the bear market believers. You may catch a small move if you think about shorting or selling from here on out, but I believe you have your fishing line in the wrong pond. I'll see you at 5k, a new ATH indeed, and you will have heard it here first.
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The last 3 weeks of low timeframe bleed into HTF demand wiped out in under 24 hours as $TRAC pumps from .45-.68 in less than a day.
And this will be the case for most fundamentally sound alts when the time is right.
As I’ve always said- don’t mistake consolidation for weakness. You can see here how quickly the tables can turn.
$TRAC back to the #1 performer in the Top 200 over the last 24 hours- should probably get used to seeing it at the top of the leaderboards…
CrediBULL Crypto@CredibleCrypto
Nice to see $TRAC listed on the 2nd largest Korean crypto exchange in the world. "South Korea is the second-largest cryptocurrency market globally, with trading volumes in Korean won (KRW) reaching $663 billion. This positions South Korea just behind the United States, which leads with $832 billion in crypto trading volume." South Koreans can now easily get exposure to @origin_trail 🔥
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