Top End Rooster

Well 50kg for the Stradbroke, just need to beat Beadman, grafterburners this weekend to make the field

Small Cap Investing is Dead with a 77% spike in Tax Collection I have run 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of portfolios of 20 Small Cap Stocks with the New Inflation Corrected CGT model versus the existing 50% CGT discount model. The results are devastating. The bottom line is that small caps are highly asymmetric bets where your small number of winners are meant to compensate you for your many losers. Mining companies are a good example of this situation and are a fundamental pillar of our national wealth. However if you tax those few winners at 47% with the trivial relative inflation correction you effectively wipe out the ability to offset your losses. This is because the tax drag on your few multi baggers is so high that it changes the entire logic of the investment process. It's become a loser's game. 1. ​The Moonshot Tax Penalty: Because Australian small caps rely heavily on a right-skewed distribution (a few massive winners offsetting many losers), the Indexation framework introduces a devastating tax penalty. For a stock that goes from $50,000 to $400,000, a 3% inflation adjustment on the original $50,000 cost basis is completely negligible. Under Indexation, you forfeit the 50% discount and pay a flat 47% on nearly the entire gain. 2. ​The Turnover Trap: With a 15% annual turnover, small-cap portfolios realize taxes continuously. Under the current system, every partial sale triggers a flat 23.5% effective tax rate, leaving more money inside the portfolio to compound. Under indexation, those early wins are hit at a full 47% clip, severely dampening the portfolio's forward compounding engine. 3. The Asymmetric Loss Failure: in small-cap investing, a stock can only ever lose 100% of its value, but explosive winners have unlimited compounding upside. The government’s asymmetric tax system completely devastates this dynamic: by replacing the flat 50% CGT discount with inflation-indexing for winners only, it leaves your nominal losses capped and completely unable to counteract the massive tax hike on your multi-baggers. Because a 3% inflation buffer barely dents a 400% moonshot gain, you end up paying a brutal, un-discounted 47% tax rate on the very winners that drive a small-cap portfolio's success, causing a 77% spike in total government tax take overall. Even in investing we see the socialist government wants us all to be the same. Communists. (Technical notes: Model executed using Gemini Pro with 1,000 portfolios of 20 stocks each with the volatility and median return typical of this class of small cap stocks over the last 10 years, using a geometric mean process to step forward each portfolio each year).

@Gatty54 @Allan_McFarlane Well importantly Wimbledon beat the odds n stayed up with the smallest budget in the league

@Allan_McFarlane @TopEndRooster There are people rorting the system. Thats who it’s aimed at. Anyway, the real story is Celtic winning the title and the cup and Rangers choking and finishing third! lol

Thief

@Gatty54 If I kark my kids trust will be taxed even if they are minors

@TopEndRooster Mate that is wrong. There is no death tax. Don’t be brainwashed

Labor invent modelling and forecasts then rely on it as fact to GASLIGHT Australians Look at any Ai model, ask it a question about immigration, rent, energy, whatever - it is weighted to rely on govt modelling over real world facts Pathological liars.

Bloody brilliant and hilarious! Video of the Year.

Watching this saints team makes me think we should have promotion n relegation with metro cup teams

@MarkGottlieb Thankfully the local Bowlo still has $5 schooners, just one of the reasons the sunny coast is the best place in Oz to live

When I was 18 you could get a jug of cheap beer for $10. I bought an $18 Asahi schooner the other day. I was too embarrassed and stunned by the price that I just paid and sadly drank it.

@Gatty54 U can see why exiting properties are being grandfathered

@TopEndRooster So you are happy for people to negative gear 6,7,8 or more homes and forcing young people out of owning a house?

My goodness. Natalie Barr has no idea and the fact Jane Hume is sitting there like a stunned mullet suggests she doesn’t have a clue either lol lol.

@Gatty54 Ive set up a trust a trust for my kids n most people i know have as well

@TopEndRooster As for trusts, it doesn’t affect everyday people.

How good are these qtis bonuses, especially when u get a horse good enough to win a few of em

1 week after the budget n u can see why they didn’t take it to an election for a 3rd time

There is a vicious circle at the heart of Australian fiscal policy. Government taxes workers’ wages. Spends more than it collects. Lifts the wage tax. Spends more. Lets bracket creep quietly raise the burden every year, a hidden tax nobody votes for. Spends more. Prints and borrows, so inflation eats what’s left in your pocket, another hidden tax. Spends more. Stacks excise on fuel, tobacco and alcohol; stamp duty on homes and shares; a Medicare levy on top of income tax. Spends more. Brings in a consumption tax. Spends more. Now it has to tax capital. @cjoye At every step the answer to overspending has been a new base to tax, never less spending. Wages weren’t enough. Bracket creep wasn’t enough. Inflation wasn’t enough. Excise wasn’t enough. GST wasn’t enough. So the productive stock the country has spent generations building is next in line. That is what the proposed tax regime actually is. Not a fairness measure. The latest turn of a ratchet that only moves one way and it won’t stop until the spending does.

@ReadingThePlay A 34-30 game between a bunch of players who are playing for other countries isn’t origin

The elephant in the room now, is how is #Origin going to be played? Will it be the nitpicking infringements with ref interference every 3 to 4 mins as is now the game's execs flavour, or the traditional best vs the best Origin match up that has 30 yrs of history and folklore (and tv ratings) behind it? Both QRL and NSWRL have been trying to get direction on this for weeks (toward team selection) from the NRL but have been given zero.. Having crapped on the game offering this season by further meddling with the rules to beyond common sense, do the @nrl now do the same to Origin..  And if they don't, then face the outcry of how obvious it is that the weekly NRL game is being manipulated and nitpicked, and how screamingly obvious the fark up is..

@ReadingThePlay It’s just like golden point, which I have hated from day 1, 1 pt from a draw use to be very handy on the ladder as u got to the end of the year

NRL. Why it doesn’t matter as much as it once did. The NRL has prioritised the quick hit, more-is-more approach, while neglecting the aspect of the game that drew people in and made them care in the first place. When tries are cheap and plentiful, each individual event loses value. It’s ultra-processed rugby league, and everyone knows that’s bad for you. c/ @MikeMeehallWood ↘️ open.substack.com/pub/mikemeehal…

If it looks like a death tax, works like a death tax and stinks like a death tax, then it’s a fucken death tax. Tell me I’m wrong @AlboMP ?

@firstfusilier @AlboMP Its a death tax all right!

@TMFScottP Well they have outdone themselves this time with everybody losing all at once

We've really, really gotta stop expecting 'no-one loses' policies from governments and oppositions. It's national-interest poison, driven by focus groups and grievance politics. We should choose the losers carefully and fairly, but the national interest *must* come first.