Craven Morehead

@ElliscbIV Just adds to his MAGA credentials. Can easily imagine a scenario where Bernie Moreno resigns and Max Miller takes his place in the Senate soon.

OH-7 is still a reach district for Democrats, having backed Trump by double digits in 2024, but this new development could put it in play.

@concernedTX1 @nieto_phillip @Daily_MailUS A Christian woman would have kept her mouth shut

@TotallyCraven @nieto_phillip @Daily_MailUS MAGA over your own kid? Pathetic

NEW: Trump-endorsed Rep. Max Miller is accused of physically abusing his ex-wife, GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno's daughter, including allegedly hurling boiling water at her with their 8-month-old present. @Daily_MailUS has the photos. dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…

@michaeldweiss Met Gala. The Devil Wears Prada sequel. No wonder he came out of hiding.

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@nypost Lots to talk about with release of The Devil Wears Prada sequel.

Iranian president reportedly met with still missing, 'probably gay' supreme leader trib.al/HGT4s6u

@sentdefender Drunken hookup with ex doesn't mean they are getting back together!

Per a U.S. official, via Jennifer Griffin, the strikes do not constitute a resumption of the war.

@mattyglesias Literally that is what I tell my teen son

Someone needs to tell America's young men that college is a good place to meet girls.

@ralakbar Wake me up when we invade them

JUST NOW!! U.S. imposes sweeping sanctions on Cuba’s military-run business empire Rubio targets GAESA and mining sector in move to freeze ‘illicit assets’ of communist regime 👇

@MattZeitlin Dude was just manufacturing excuses to go to Hawaii. Can't blame him

anthony kiedis's memoir is pretty amazing, he's always going to hawaii for weeks or months at a time to recover from heroin addiction or dating ione skye (b. 1970) in the 1980s

@mattyglesias Everyone drives gas guzzlers now

Voters obviously not in the mood for a lecture about how good they have it, but $4.50 gasoline just isn't what it used to be in terms of impact on people's financial well-being.

@daveweigel Markey is 79

Emerson Poll of #MASen primary: Markey 37% Moulton 32% emersoncollegepolling.com/massachusetts-…

@michaeldweiss Hear me out. Let's call it a "Fantastic Voyage"

It’s an “excursion” now.

Three passengers have died in the outbreak on the cruise ship. At least four others have fallen sick, with plans to evacuate three still on board. ksdk.com/article/news/n…

@onechancefreedm math isn't one of them

@TotallyCraven You have a lot to learn.

When Valuations Reach This Level The Correction Is Usually Brutal The market is not just expensive. It is expensive, concentrated, late cycle, and now exposed to a massive energy shock that has not fully worked through the economy yet. The Shiller PE compares the S&P 500 to the prior 10 years of inflation adjusted earnings. Around 41 today, it sits just below the dot com peak near 44, above the 2021 post covid extreme near 39, and far above the long term average near 17. That is not normal expensive. That is perfection pricing. The Historic Warning CAPE is not a crash timer. It does not mean the market has to fall tomorrow. It means future returns have already been pulled forward. The highest valuation periods usually come with powerful new era stories. In 1929, it was autos, electricity, radio, margin credit, and industrial scale. The Dow later fell almost 90%. In 1999, it was the internet. The S&P 500 later fell roughly 49% and the Nasdaq lost almost 78%. In 2021, it was zero rates, QE, stimulus, crypto, software, and pandemic liquidity. The 2022 reset followed. The lesson is not that every company was fake. It is that great stories can still become terrible prices. The Concentration Problem Today is more fragile because extreme valuation is paired with extreme concentration. The top 10 stocks are roughly 40% to 41% of the S&P 500 while producing a smaller share of total earnings. That means the index is less a broad measure of the economy and more a levered bet on a handful of mega cap AI and platform companies. That works until leadership breaks. Narrow leadership hides weakness. Passive flows reward the biggest names. Then, when the generals finally roll over, index strength turns into index fragility very quickly. The Underbelly Is Cracking The market still acts like the soft landing is intact, but the credit data is not clean. Bankruptcies are rising. Subchapter V and Chapter 11 filings are climbing. Household debt is stretched. Credit card, auto, and student loan delinquencies are worsening. CRE refinancing stress remains buried inside the banking system. That is classic late cycle behavior. The index stays strong because the top names stay strong, while weaker borrowers, employers, and consumers break first. The Energy Shock Is Not Finished The biggest mistake is confusing lower oil futures with economic relief. Oil can fall on a ceasefire headline, but the real economy still absorbs the damage through diesel, freight, fertilizer, food, insurance, shipping delays, and consumer cash flow. Energy shocks move in waves. • First prices • Then margins • Then earnings • Then credit • Then hiring • Then defaults That is why Q4 2026 into Q1 2027 is the danger window. The market is trading headlines. The economy is absorbing lagged damage. My Take I would not treat any single crash probability as scientific unless the model behind it is transparent. But directionally, the risk is clearly much higher than normal because the variables are stacking together. • 80% odds of a 15% to 20% correction • 65% odds of a 25% plus bear market • 45% odds of a 35% to 45% drawdown • 30% odds of a 45% plus crash if funding, Treasury, CRE, or Hormuz stress breaks open • 20% odds the market avoids a major drawdown through Q1 2027 If the energy shock keeps feeding through inventories, diesel, freight, fertilizer, and margins into late 2026, I would put the conditional odds of a 40% plus drawdown closer to 55% to 65%. This does not mean the market must crash tomorrow. It means perfection is priced as the world becomes less perfect. Valuations are near dot com levels. Concentration is beyond dot com levels. Credit deterioration is visible. The consumer is weaker than the headline data suggests. The energy shock is still moving through the system. Bubbles can melt up first. They often do. But bulls need perfection to continue. Bears only need one major assumption to break.

@onechancefreedm correct

@TotallyCraven Everything goes up forever!

@onechancefreedm Short it or STFU

@AudreyFahlberg Yikes. She gave a reasonable answer to a question when she had no facts upon which to base a response.

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@mckaycoppins @JeffreyGoldberg Fascists gonna fascist

.@JeffreyGoldberg: “If confirmed to be true, this would represent an outrageous attack on the free press and the First Amendment itself. We will defend The Atlantic and its staff vigorously; we will not be intimidated by illegitimate investigations or other acts of politically motivated retaliation; we will continue to cover the FBI professionally, fairly, and thoroughly; and we will continue to practice journalism in the public interest.” theatlantic.com/politics/2026/…

New on CNN: Before her nomination, Trump's surgeon general pick purged posts accusing them of hiding that measles was spreading until after the midterms, calling Trump and Elon Musk "petty, loud, and obnoxious," questioning Trump's health, and attacking their autism claims.