
Trader Xenon
409 posts












@robin_j_brooks your comments below reveal a profound lack of understanding of the oil market. Commodity futures price inventory, NOT expectations. That isn't ideology; it's a fact grounded in the economics of carry. The Brent price in your graph is not a risk anyone can actually hold — it's a spot contract stitched together at each expiry. In normal times that's a fair proxy; these are not normal times. Construct a series an investor could truly hold — a rolled BCOM index, or the USO ETF — and the picture inverts: it slopes hard up and to the right, consistent with the largest supply shock in history. USO keeps climbing because the shortage is showing up in the futures curve — not in the headline price on the screen. The carry pays an investor nearly 50% a year, even if the price of oil never moves. The SPR was drawn down before commercial inventories — when it is normally the other way round. Strategic stocks are meant to be the last line of defence, not the first, but this time Washington spent them first, managing headlines not risk. When you have no crude in storage, THEN and only then will the spot price move to a level to destroy demand. I have no idea if it is 150, or 200, or 250. The observed indication from Asia is ~200.













$DGXX price action those last 45min was very unusual. We had a candle with over a million shares. It’s continuing its run here AH too. Someone always knows! Now what’s to come who knows but this is NOT NORMAL action. Congrats longs it’s great seeing the $4 mark!


🤔Methinks, that with Uranus entering Gemini in late April and then becoming harmonious w Pluto in Aqua, (that going exact in July), the laid off AI workers may strike back against the System somehow. People may potentially come together in discomfort, pushing for justice, taking back their power, pushing for change, transformation, regeneration. This is a potential only, of how this energy may manifest, ofc there are many other ways that it may go, but certainly, I see this becoming one of the options on the table that will play out between this year and the next. Mark this tweet.




