Crypto Alvin

People asked me to clarify a few things so building on my post. I believe the 4 year cycle is no longer valid and in 3-6 months time BTC will be meaningfully higher than it is today. The path there is tricky as vestigal memetic consensus for a 4 year cycle still exists, so any garden variety sell-off will be amplified by those who still believe in it. BTC is in a temporary air pocket, given mean reversion after the torrential DAT buying, flows being pulled out to gold, flows being pulled out to equities, and flows that have already been pulled out to ETH/alts. Gold flows will naturally come back when it starts getting tired ($4k is a logical spot), equity flows returning will require a regaining of BTC momentum, ETH/alt flows returning is already starting but needs some more shakeout. At the same time, liquidity is on the softer side here, and we are waiting for more movement on the Trump Fed hijacking, the incremental fiscal spend from the OBBBA to kick in (Jan 1), and other key catalysts. As I've mentioned, the Trump Fed hijacking is a momentous catalyst, and I will dive deeper into my thesis and the legal mechanics at a later date - thus HTF I am super bullish, but it is something that will unfold gradually. The price action here is not very encouraging unfortunately, have to face it, wouldn't surprise me to see some down before higher. If that is the case, the most important thing will be to buy/add when that turnaround happens, I imagine the 4 year cycle panic will be quite loud at that moment. Then, the reversion out of that should be strong, as there is greater psychological space for a "it's so over" -> "we are so back" flip. I am staying long some core BTC positions, will have room to add to BTC from my large gold position as well as cash.