Trapped Ion

1/ Will be doing a decently long thread on the EU's plan to collateralize immobilized Russian sovereign assets held at Euroclear as part of a "reparations" loan. In short, the likelihood of this going through by April 2026 (when funding runs dry) is likely around 20-30%.

In Kyiv - Russian missile hit a business center in downtown. The location is near Kyiv electric networks and a recently opened “telecommunications supplier” Geo: Vikentiya Khvoiky St, 50.4842725, 30.4861462

#Excl Russia presumably targeted the state migration service of Ukraine (dmsu.gov.ua) in an air strike this AM. 14.05.26 Geo: 50.40292, 30.65499

As time progresses UA keeps shutting down datasources, about month ago wanted.mvs.gov.ua where you could list all missing persons got redeveloped to show just few entries Recently (may 1st), same data on data.gov.ua in json form stopped being updated

@_Nick_The_Name_ @paraconqr @hyperliberalism @minordissent >All those nations It’s practically every nation that isn’t a complete shithole. Israel, Saudi, and Kazakhstan are the slight exceptions (not saying these are Switerland, but ranked very high HDI) are decent and above 2.1. They’ll are falling too. No need to separate by nation.

@Trapped_Ion @paraconqr @hyperliberalism @minordissent Yeah, and it’s going to really fucking suck for all those nations

There's an unfortunate game theory to a large civilization in that it requires hard work, ethical behavior, and deferral of gratification to build. But then eventually people start to forget that and think "why would I work hard when theres all this stuff here already? I should just be hedonistic". Slowly, the civilization starts to decay causing it to take care of people less, which causes more people to defect ("why should I take care of a system that doesn't care for me? Especially when there's so much fun to be had by neglecting it"), until eventually it collapses because everyone has defected.

@paraconqr @hyperliberalism @minordissent Which modern country's birth rate is not abysmal? Practically every developed or semi-developed country on earth is sub-2 TFR. Japan reached it earlier, but has plateaued.

@hyperliberalism @minordissent you didn't understand what i was saying i'm not saying you need a certain population to be successful. obviously that is dumb but japan's birth rate is abysmal

@re2max @Vladmerzl @teortaxesTex There is nothing going on here on the front, there is virtually no blue (advances in last 30d). #9/49.8601329/36.3977051" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">deepstatemap.live/#9/49.8601329/… I really do not know where this supposed "on the offensive" is occurring.

@Trapped_Ion @Vladmerzl @teortaxesTex So "the offensive" was the activation word (two)... I will pause your Asperger self here. ✋⏸️ Look, an offensive in one place does not rule out an offensive in the other. That would be a whole other sentence I did not write.

I guess Ukrainians are abandoning the hardware. They probably don't have much hope of another counteroffensive. The manpower situation is bad. Paradoxically, this may be a war that both sides lose. Ukrainians can extend the kill zone and harass Russian rear, but not regain land.

@re2max @Vladmerzl @teortaxesTex Yeah not really in the last month or so. Outside of the failed Skala attempt and just the general mess that is Kupyansk for both sides, they haven't been "on the offensive". The "offensive" in the location previously mentioned was a firefighting op that had good success.

@Trapped_Ion @Vladmerzl @teortaxesTex Kupiansk and Pokrovsk with different levels of success.

@re2max @Vladmerzl @teortaxesTex 4) Outside of the op a couple months ago on the junction of zapo and dneperpetrovsk what offensive are they on? Global offensive initiative in still Ru.

@Vladmerzl @teortaxesTex It is long-term. 1) Targeting priorities have changed, 2) on-field tactics have changed, 3) production rates increased, and 4) Ukraine has been on the offensive lately.

@liwikruk @MichaelAArouet Pretty much every European and east Asian country is like this. Poland has an even lower TFR.

@MichaelAArouet Putin is retarded

A country with such a population „pyramid“ cannot have a good future. Nature is healing.

@HK_DC_Sniper @BabakTaghvaee1 F16i is heavily modified from base

@BabakTaghvaee1 How F16 fit the navigator in....

BREAKING: The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency has reported the shootdown of an Israeli fighter jet near Tehran. They claim it was a single-engine aircraft. If so, it is most likely an F-16I Sufa strike fighter of the Israeli Air Force. There is no information about the pilot and navigator. They may have been killed in the shootdown or may have ejected and are now stranded somewhere near Tehran, the capital city of Iran. #OperationEpicFury #OperationLionsRoar

@__Qinez_ Willy wonka washed 😭

@stipumalagatibo @DrazaM33 Most smartphones use glonass?

@DrazaM33 It'll end up like Glonass, no one will use it.

🇷🇺 On March 23 at 20:24, the launch of first batch of satellites "Rasvet" took place.

@patternobserv @viprabuddhi Even poorer Islamic nations are seeing it too, Malaysia which was until recently solidly above replacement is now below it in all ethnic groups so you can not blame the low level on athiest Chinese or hindu Indians.

@patternobserv @viprabuddhi Why are you yapping about "objective truths" as most Islamic country's TFR/total births are falling off a cliff? Your long schizo post doesn't matter when the actual data shows that births in Islamic nations are declining fast. Turkey was at replacement, now same TFR as Russia.

> Marriages in Azerbaijan collapsed by 38% this January, a few months after the country banned cousin marriages. 🇦🇿 January 2025 - 4,717 January 2026 - 2,922 > Azerbaijan is headed for a TFR as low as 0.8 > Like I said earlier, fertility rates in the Muslim world will collapse to such low levels over this decade that even Japan will look fertile by comparison ☪️ > The myth of the so called high Islamic fertility will collapse when it meets the might of modern materialism.

The horrors of Chasov Yar. It catches the essence of the War in Donbass ,pretty good. Work,death 0-24, every single day.

@deltaIV9250 @Eosphorusz You are speaking in vague platitiudes. As for enriched uranium, how exactly has that capability vanished from this current round of bombing or the one from the last round? When he mentioned the Russians, it likely meant the workers of Rosatom at Isfahan who are there as I type.

@Eosphorusz Again, nuclear infrastructure is very sensitive and expensive. And the Russians have their hands tied

2 weeks into the Iran war and assessment still unchanged. The operation is a stunning military success for the Americans, but it’s really unknown if it will achieve its political goal Though long term Iran is probably fucked. Can’t imagine their already strained economy improves

@brent_e_trader @m113enjoyer @oilmutt Brent still trading over $100 and for some reason you are showing WTI future prices that are the same as they were on Friday to prove your point? As the other poster said, this is comically priced in.

@m113enjoyer @oilmutt It can’t replace, but it helps. Oil overreaction is facing correction.

Still no legitimate traffic and oil is $99

@Streetstone2407 @bayraktar_1love @UK_MTO Video game level understanding. True capeshit award for you.

@bayraktar_1love @UK_MTO Iran will be just like Afghanistan, where only mud houses were left to bomb. The Taliban, as human drones on the ground, kept coming to attack the US troops. Now the drones fly. The IEDs are like the sea mines now. High numbers, scattered around, are hard or impossible to beat.

The @UK_MTO has already issued three reports this morning on attacks against civilian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. • A container ship was hit by an unknown projectile, the crew is safe.
• A cargo vessel was struck by an unknown projectile, a fire broke out and the crew abandoned ship.
• A bulk carrier was also hit by an unknown projectile, the crew is safe.

Outbound transits ( Strait of Hormuz) of Commercial ships as of March 10th ! You might need a microscope

Years of dating mentally ill women has prepared me for this craziness