Troy Day

82 posts

Troy Day

Troy Day

@Troy_Day

Mathematical Biologist, Applied Mathematician

Queen's University Katılım Haziran 2012
318 Takip Edilen509 Takipçiler
Troy Day
Troy Day@Troy_Day·
From @com_ecology : Could two followers please copy and re-post this tweet? I'm trying to demonstrate that someone is always there, especially at this time of year. Just two. Any two. Copy, not retweet. Canada Crisis/Suicide Prevention Line Flag of Canada 1 833 456 4566
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Troy Day
Troy Day@Troy_Day·
@TWenseleers Exactly. Intuitively, in the limit of no interactions the benefit of enhanced transmissibility should go to zero
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Tom Wenseleers now @twenseleers.bsky.social
Tom Wenseleers now @twenseleers.bsky.social@TWenseleers·
@Troy_Day Thanks Troy for reminding me about those 2 nice Current Biology papers of yours! What was the intuitive reason again for the selective advantage of Alpha to go down with decreased nr of contacts? That transmission advantage remains the same per interaction, but not at pop level?
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Tom Wenseleers now @twenseleers.bsky.social
Tom Wenseleers now @twenseleers.bsky.social@TWenseleers·
Mounting evidence for a shorter generation interval for Omicron (shorter non-infectious incubation period), which will result in a much sharper & shorter Omicron peak. This could make much more of a difference than reduced severity as such.
Trevor Bedford@trvrb

An update on Omicron epidemic dynamics and where we stand today. Exponential growth cannot go on forever, but predicting when a wave will crest ahead of observing slowing in case growth is very difficult. 1/17

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Troy Day
Troy Day@Troy_Day·
@TWenseleers Similar hints of reduced GT in Canada. But a reduced selection coefficient is expected even if advantage comes from transmission ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P… This was seen w alpha (tighter lockdown=weaker selection). Agree effect should be stronger if GT is important tho.
Troy Day tweet media
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Tom Wenseleers now @twenseleers.bsky.social
Tom Wenseleers now @twenseleers.bsky.social@TWenseleers·
A shorter generation time would also be consistent with the recent reduction in Omicron's growth rate advantage we see in England, Scotland & Denmark.
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Troy Day
Troy Day@Troy_Day·
@BradCrane18 @trvrb Yes that's right. All else is almost certainly not equal though since Omicron spreads better among vaccinated people.
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Brad Crane
Brad Crane@BradCrane18·
@Troy_Day @trvrb And thinking about what “all else equal” means in this context is interesting. Does it mean that the number of secondary infections is the same for the short vs. long generation time, just happening more quickly for shorter generation virus?
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Troy Day
Troy Day@Troy_Day·
Nice explanation by @trvrb of potential reasons why Omicron appears to be cresting in SA. twitter.com/trvrb/status/1… Increasing anecdotal evidence in Canada that underreporting (due to vaccine-mediated asympt. infection?) and reduced generation time might both be significant 1/2
Trevor Bedford@trvrb

Q&A with @dwallacewells covering Omicron. Why is the Gauteng epidemic cresting so seemingly early? What's going on with Omicron severity? nymag.com/intelligencer/…

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Troy Day
Troy Day@Troy_Day·
If reduced generation time is a main driver in the selective sweep of Omicron then we might expect a greatly reduced (and potentially even reversed) selection coefficient of Omicron-to-Delta on the downside of the wave (to the extent that Delta is still present).
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Troy Day retweetledi
Adalsteinn (Steini) Brown
Adalsteinn (Steini) Brown@SteiniBrown·
Congratulations to Andrew and Beate, two of many @UofT_dlsph community members who are working night and day to understand the pandemic, protect the most vulnerable and offer scientific evidence to help guide our response. You are among the #hiddenheroes.
IHPME@ihpmeuoft

The winners of the 2021 Louise Lemieux-Charles Health System Leadership Award are @drandrewb and @BeateSander. It recognizes leadership in bringing about measurable positive change, innovative approaches to change and motivating others to improve the health system. Congrats! 👏🙌

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Troy Day retweetledi
David Juurlink
David Juurlink@DavidJuurlink·
Very helpful messaging on rapid antigen tests from @COVIDSciOntario covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/r… For people planning holiday gatherings, this is the key figure. These tests are very good at detecting when someone poses a risk to others, especially before symptoms begin.
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Troy Day
Troy Day@Troy_Day·
@anuragasclepias Sorry to hear this Anurag. Laura and I were just talking about you a couple of days ago when making the BBQ pizza that you introduced us to. Get well soon. Then come visit!
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Anurag Agrawal
Anurag Agrawal@anuragasclepias·
Friends, 10 days ago I was in a bicycling accident when a truck pulled in front of me. Many broken bones but no head injury. I am well taken care of at SUNY Upstate. Looking forward to walking in weeks and using hands in months. Please only send positive vibes. With gratitude!
Anurag Agrawal tweet mediaAnurag Agrawal tweet media
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Troy Day retweetledi
CEID
CEID@ceid_uga·
Come join us at UGA! We’re hiring 8 faculty in Ecology, Engineering, Epidemiology, & Statistics for a cluster hire in AI, Data Science, & Infectious Disease Dynamics. For full details, see: ceid.uga.edu/idd/
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Troy Day
Troy Day@Troy_Day·
@thebigjc @Wikisteff @DFisman @IrfanDhalla Yes both frequency and absolute numbers are important. Delta daily case *counts* are currently relatively flat. Alpha case counts are dropping beautifully. That’s why delta is projected to become dominant.
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Troy Day retweetledi
The Whig-Standard
The Whig-Standard@WhigStandard·
Moore named Ontario's new Chief Medical Officer of Health #Echobox=1622335997-1" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">thewhig.com/news/moore-nam…
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Troy Day retweetledi
Thomas Hillen
Thomas Hillen@thillen17·
It is an honor to announce the @CAIMS_SCMAI Research Prize for Prof. David Earn (McMaster U) in recognition of his outstanding contributions to the mathematical epidemiology of infectious diseases.
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Troy Day
Troy Day@Troy_Day·
@BallouxFrancois @nbierne @trvrb @pjie2 @marcotrizzino Mutation load is an interesting expl. But how quickly is it expected to equilibrate given effect sizes you see (through MS balance)? The issue of rising mean fitness should be controlled for automatically depending on logit transform. @trvrb I sent a separate query on this.
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Trevor Bedford
Trevor Bedford@trvrb·
Just as we can decompose the US #COVID19 epidemic into a B.1.1.7 epidemic and a non-B.1.1.7 epidemic, we can further partition by variants of concern B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and P.1, where it's clear that P.1 has been gaining ground. 1/13 twitter.com/trvrb/status/1…
Trevor Bedford@trvrb

There are effectively two #COVID19 epidemics in the US at this moment; one largely resolving epidemic comprised of non-variant viruses and one growing epidemic of B.1.1.7. Together they have resulted in a near-plateau of cases throughout much of the spring. 1/10

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Keşfet

@dzevela @JPSoucy @queensu @YUResearch @YorkUScience @IDRC_CRDI @DIGHR_YorkU @DalScience