Tulip Critique

$EOSE I'm not sure what Cerberus's exit plan or end game is. Many have speculated. My personal experience with private equity companies is that they typically aspire to a 25% or so annualized IRR and flip the companies they acquire within 5 years. That triples their money in that time. A fine return for their investors. But none of what Cerberus has been doing and are doing now makes any sense if they planned on settling on doing that kind of thing. They could have got a 3x return in less than 1 year without extending the lockup. They saw it more important to raise funds at high share prices. Then extend the lockup a second time. Project AMAZE falling behind schedule, and the continued dilution without significant new orders, has been disheartening. With 800m fully diluted shares, it's becoming increasingly difficult to justify share prices greater than what we've already seen, even assuming rapid buildout of lines per Project AMAZE and using wildly optimistic COGS and multiples. I feel like an absolute idiot for only taking profits on half of my shares at $18+. So, why is Cerberus carrying on like this, instead of taking a base hit or triple and moving on? Why haven't they tapped out with a 5-10x return in less than 2 years? Why are they supporting the new software hub in North Pittsburgh, and the new manufacturing facility, the many people on the Eos Board, and the deep investment of time and money in FPUSA if they planned on flipping this for a decent return in 5 years like a typical private equity investment? None of this makes any sense unless the company is planning on production lines far exceeding 4 lines in Pittsburgh. I look back to previous earning calls, and it's noteworthy that one of John Mahaz's main efforts has been not only developing plans to produce new lines within 90 days, but to produce new buildings that house new lines within 90 days. Do they actually have a plan to convert that massive pipeline and see a 100x unicorn return? That's swinging for the bleachers. Or are they delusional? Bad at math? I've honestly lost track at this point. My spreadsheets can't make sense of any of this. Based on the price action lately, Wall Street apparently isn't believing it now. I don't even fully believe the theory I'm describing here myself. I've become more fatalistic than optimistic at this point. How it ultimately plays out will be an an interesting and oft cited case study in investing history. Let the referees count the strokes at the end of the round.

With Kalshi currently predicting the gov’ shutdown lasting 39 days and $GEO trading at a compelling fwd PE (9x WS ‘26 EPS), NOW seems an ideal time for Geo’s BOD to start their $300m buyback.