Captain Tweener

@CFlanders7 I never believed that some 4% drop to the 200DMA would be enough coming out of a 5-month distributive base. I think we're at least visiting last rally's high, 603, b4 we go back up. (I think we rally EOY but still end the yr in red)

Unless the market quickly reclaims the 200dma and rallies off it, I would expect a larger decline or extended chop. Going back and looking historically, when the indexes have rallied for an extended period of time like we just have (almost a year) you get a correction/chop or a quick V-ish move this level. When the indexes have rallied for ~2 years without closing below the 200dma, the last few times that has started a bear market. In the 90's bull market, There were a lot of V-bottoms all the way up even after extended 18+ long month rallies above the 200dma. Curious to see if this is a quick V sell off and recovery like 96-97 or a longer one like 2004, 2010, 2011, 2015

@Djoko_UTD Nadal on clay and it's not even debatable.

Whom are you choosing ???

@RealSimpleAriel What I noticed today is that optics/memory seems to go up and minerals/materials seems yo go down whenever there is good news about the war.

3/19/2026 Daily Recap: Bulls did some heavy lifting! - $QQQ $SPY where have we seen this movie before? Gap down reversal for the 8th time in 6 weeks. - $SNDK $WDC $STX $LITE $CIEN $AXTI $BE $AAOI $TSEM $PL $FSLY we cannot lose sight of how impressive the individual leadership has been in this market. - $GLD $GDX $SLV $SILJ with large gaps lower this morning. I think the edge is gone there for a short for the time being. - $IGV continues to try and carve out a bottom. - $XLF was nice to see the late day rebound as well. $GS bounce off the 200sma and plays a large role for the Dow $YM_F. - $XLK the largest component of the $SPY had its own drop and reversal today. Would be nice to see a follow through day soon if we are going to break this string of lower highs. - $XLV currently broken $LLY $ABBV $MCK not helping - $UFO a group to watch tomorrow on the back of $PL. $RKLB $ASTS $KTOS $KRMN etc. - $XLE $XOP $OIH still the strongest group in the market but a little multiweek pause here would be totally normal. A bit extended on a $CVX $APA $AR $FANG $VLO. My base case is a breather. - $SMH also a gap and reversal today. The market cannot afford to lose this group. $AMD super job holding the 200sma. $LSCC $TSEM $LRCX $KLAC $TSM $ASML $INTC great action from the open.

@nicaqs You’re still in $OPEN?

Setups shared and their subsequent performance: Benchmark: $SPY -1.40% $TSEM: +2.97% $KRMN: -2.53% $LPTH: -2.67% $CIFR: -2.78% $ENPH: -3.18% $TROX: -3.19% $COIN: -3.78% $BKSY: -3.86% $ONDS: -3.99% $TSAT: -4.58% $WULF: -4.61% $OPEN: -5.04% $ASTS: -5.18% $MSTR: -6.47% $VELO: -8.48% $RKLB: -11.59% Gotta respect the driving forces of the current market. Strong oil + strong dollar = headwind to equities. x.com/nicaqs/status/…

@iamdisplacement Cut losses

Pitch me your best Trading advice in 2 words

@ZaStocks The deal is 27B and $NBIS market. cap is 29B....smh

$NBIS is starting to remind me of $HOOD in 2024 when they were announcing deal after deal and product after product all while executing relentlessly. Have to give credit where credit is due.

@CFlanders7 The good thing is, those big drawdowns always happen at the beginning, so you didn't have that much money to lose anyways :)

My wife asked me the other night if I wish my trading journey could have been easier. Do I wish I didn't have the large, extended drawdowns over years. I said while extremely painful and difficult at the time, I wouldn't have it any other way. Once you have been through the gauntlet like that, the self-confidence and self-belief you gain is invaluable. Most importantly, you know exactly what you did to have that drawdown and know exactly what NOT to do going forward.

@BarclayCard18 It's his last chance. Even for Novak, winning RG at 40 just seems like an impossiblity.

Now that it's confirmed Novak Djokovic won't play Miami, how do we see the clay season going for him? At the start of the year, I was thinking that he might skip the French Open to prepare for Wimbledon but now, I reckon he's definitely playing it...

@RichardMoglen @Deepvue I see a cup forming. Would be watching for breakout.

$BE +340% in 75 Days from the ORCL Partnership Catalyst Gap Close

@SJosephBurns Noooooo don't ruin it!

Jim Cramer says the market is "oversold" and he is "buying."

@F_Compounders Guy on right looks like a fat Peter Lynch lol

Can you name all these people?

@CFlanders7 Jason Shapiro's been popping in my feed lately and while I do believe $SPY is in stage 3 heading to 4, I am worried about "over-participation": right now, just too many ppl are expecting a crash.

Might be tempted to buy this but if you’ve studied history, crashes typically happen from very oversold levels.

@MichaelPBento @JohnLoc18 Michael what tools do you use to money spy option activities? Curious to know.

Remember, if you see a lot of very large Call option orders come over on 3/19, $5 MLN or more clustered at the same time and deep ITM, then you should expect a selloff the next day. Dividend Arbitrage is rampant lately and more often than not it puts pressure on the underlying price the day after those calls are exercised.

Last post for tonight: Next Friday is $SPY Q1 2026 ex-dividend day (3/20), don’t be surprised if you see strong pump early next week to capture the payout. Welp.

@CFlanders7 My only concern now tho is the contrarian view that “when everyone is in agreement, then the expected won’t happen”. There is possibility of max pessimism = bottom. (Not that I don’t think we won’t see 600-650)

Basically nothing I wanted to see happened. Sentiment is finally starting to turn negative though.

@Clement_Ang17 Another thing (I gotta share this w/ someone) is sector confirmation. Like literally all the uranium stocks had a C&H in mid-Jan! ($UUUU, $DNN, $UEC, etc.)

@TwiCaptain Yes 100%! I completely missed that trade - given the size of those bases, those moves probably have more to go is my guess!

@Clement_Ang17 Thanks for responding Clement! And I gotta say, if I have learned anything in this market, it is to "let the stocks do the talking". Looking back, I am surprised by how many stocks in the energy/oil/gas sectors had already set up bases back in Jan (i.e. $XOM)

@TwiCaptain maybe! If that is the case, I still foresee a couple more weeks for constructive bases to form. At current my breakdown watchlist is disproportionately larger than the normal longs watchlist

This market moves a lot but doesn't really go anywhere.

@Clement_Ang17 Honestly the math rn is: work really hard for a 20% gain (and that’s only for the seasoned traders), or, hold cash and wait til we get out of this correction phase. Its simple.

Survive now to thrive later. Get through this phase unscathed and you'll belong at the top!

@CFlanders7 I'm glad there's this platform to give me access to seasoned traders as yourself. This is my 4th yr trading and had it not been you and all the Market Wizards & USIC superperformers saying "don't trade this choppy market", I would have to learn the hard way....

Scrolling back on SPY, last time I can find price action similar to this rounding top look was 2015. Not an environment for break out traders. Market went sideways from December 2014 to July 2016. Growth names didn't really start breaking out in earnest and moving until January 2017. (NVDA breakout was mid 2016)