Tyler Stapleton

Turkey hasn't met any underlying conditions to have sanctions lifted and an F-35 sale approved. Even with the transfer of the S-400 system, there are significant national security threats posed by Turkey and its relationship with Russia and China, emphasize @SinanCiddi & @Ty_D_Stapleton: fdd.org/analysis/2026/…

If your “solution” to the S-400 crisis is simply changing the shipping address, you’re solving 🇹🇷 political headache—not 🇺🇸security dilemma. Congress should reject any backdoor attempt to revive the F-35 deal through a Gulf transfer. My latest for @FDD w/@FDDAction colleague @Ty_D_Stapleton fdd.org/analysis/2026/…

Joined the @GreekCurrent and @ThanosDavelis to talk about the potential S-400 transfer from Turkey to a third party country and the fate of selling F-35’s to Erdogan.

Providing the F-35 to Turkey would not build NATO capacity. It would enable Erdogan’s Neo Ottoman ambitions for the region and insulate him from criticism of his increasing authoritarian conduct.

If your “solution” to the S-400 crisis is simply changing the shipping address, you’re solving 🇹🇷 political headache—not 🇺🇸 security dilemma. Congress should reject any backdoor attempt to revive the F-35 deal through a Gulf transfer. My latest for @FDD w/@FDDAction colleague @Ty_D_Stapleton fdd.org/analysis/2026/…

With news of a potential sale or transfer of the S-400 to a third party country to pave the way for a F-35 sale to Turkey @FDD’s @SinanCiddi and I break down the path way forward and obstacles to the Trump Administration and Erdogan in getting a deal done. fdd.org/analysis/2026/…

Selling the S-400 to Qatar or the UAE Solves Turkey’s Problem, Not Washington’s New Insight from @SinanCiddi & @Ty_D_Stapleton: bit.ly/4wwwcO3

This week: Iran squanders the ceasefire, NATO boosts defense spending, and China tests a sub-launched nuclear missile. We break down the stories — and two NDAA amendments Congress should pass to back the Iranian people. Read it all here 👇

@DBDesRoches Russia and Turkey are still under contract for the S-400 so Russia still has enormous leverage. Russia is also Turkey’s largest energy trading partner. Russia has plenty of ways to influence the outcome of how, when and where the S-400 would be transferred.

@Ty_D_Stapleton What leverage would Russia employ to ensure its end-use conditions are honored and why would they matter to a NATO ally?

A lot to unpack here. A sale to UAE or Qatar would risk US operations in those countries especially with the Combined Air Operations Center in Qatar. The cost of the system would be between 1-1.25 Billion. The acquisition would also require a review of QME for Israel and a review of whether CAATSA sanctions would apply.

@Ty_D_Stapleton Okay, Boomer the Bald

It would be hard to imagine Russia allowing Turkey to transfer the system for this purpose. The likeliest scenario would be a transfer to one of the gulf states to be placed in storage and a declaration from Turkey it will not re acquire the system. This would likely meet the certification requirements under the FY 2020 NDAA.

@Ty_D_Stapleton Yes. IF those countries plan to field it. If they plan to use it in a joint training range with the U.S., well, that’s a different matter. See Slovakia’s S300

The law requires a three part test before a sale can be considered. 1. Turkey no longer "possesses" the Russian-made S-400 air defense system or related personnel. 2. Turkey has provided credible assurances it will not acquire similar Russian systems in the future. 3. Turkey has not accepted any other Russian systems that could compromise F-35 capabilities Here is the language of the law and required certification to Congress before a waiver can be used.

U.S. Central Command forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway. The U.S. strikes are in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire.

U.S. Treasury Department has revoked the general license that was supposed to allow Iran to sell petroleum products for 60 days. Full notice here: 👇 ofac.treasury.gov/media/936446/d…

Republican Congressman @RepMikeLawler is leading a new congressional effort aimed at preventing any future transfer of F35 fighter aircraft to Turkey. ekathimerini.com/politics/forei…

The administration needs to define what violations of the MOU will terminate the general license allowing Iran to sell petroleum products. Consequences need to mirror actions.

Statement from Ranking Member @RepGregoryMeeks on the State Department’s decision to bypass Congressional review on an arms sale of more than $700 million worth of equipment to the Turkish military:

Congress has been effusive in opposing jet engine exports to Turkey. Any attempt by the administration to railroad this through would face bipartisan and bicameral opposition. reuters.com/world/middle-e…

The U.S. must take immediate steps to address foreign influence and funding in higher education. The first step is transparency and data collection. The Deterrent Act, before Congress can address these issues. The House and Senate can adopt its provisions in the NDAA. Here is the case for action: thehill.com/opinion/nation…