Ugras Ulku

CEE-3 central banks are expected to remain cautious amid heightened #geopolitical tensions and persistent #inflation risks - food inflation & unstable #oilmarkets could trigger a spike in fuel inflation 📊 Read More: ow.ly/Q4NS50WqKjv

From @UgrasUlkuIIF: we expect the CEE-3's regional growth momentum will be accompanied by a steady increase in nonresident #capitalinflows from $67 billion in 2024 to $90 billion in 2025 - and further to $102 billion in 2026 📈 Read More: ow.ly/J4AT50WrU3y

Trump Shock: Will it push pro-growth, pro-competitiveness & pro-defense policies? Arend Kapteyn of @UBS, Christian Keller of @Barclays @BarclaysCIB, Mahmood Pradhan of @Amundi_ENG & @DeboraRevoltel1 of @EIB join @UgrasUlkuIIF to discuss boosting #European productivity. #IIFinDC

Potential #tariffs from the U.S. on the EU: #Autos would be the most significant. @UgrasUlkuIIF reports that Germany would be hit the hardest, but much of #EM Europe would be at risk, with Hungary and the Czech Republic being the most exposed. Read More: ow.ly/Nw1I50VgM6H

Views on Europe: @MarcelloEstevao & @UgrasUlkuIIF discuss trajectory differences of the U.S. & euro area labor markets, such as how euro businesses have mainly adjusted the work hours of existing employees, rather than reducing headcount 📊 Read More: ow.ly/RpBU50V6ek2

🗣️ Can Germany Ramp Up Public Investment? IIF experts @MarcelloEstevao and @UgrasUlkuIIF assess the country's #fiscal space to determine the extent to which public #investment can be increased without jeopardizing public #debt #sustainability. Read Now: ow.ly/pX1F50UVB9A

IIF TOP #EMEurope Report of 2024 🏆CEEMEA Views – Türkiye: Trip Notes 🔗 ow.ly/HgBL50Ux1R8 🔍Looking for more? Follow the experts: @UgrasUlkuIIF @Candice_IIF

In a 🆕CEEMEA Views🕶️ @UgrasUlkuIIF summarizes key takeaways from a recent IIF research trip to Türkiye, focusing on near-term policies and an anticipated #RateCut driven by the rising ex-post real policy interest rate. Read Here: ow.ly/YMxy50UqhMs

We're welcoming Minister of Treasury and Finance for the Republic of Türkiye, Mehmet Şimşek @memetsimsek, to the stage to speak with @IIF's @UgrasUlkuIIF #IIFinDC

📣 #Europe needs Draghi's reforms to boost growth, argue @MarcelloEstevao and @ugrasulkuiif in a new Global Macro Views report exploring the underlying drivers of Europe's weak growth performance. IIF members can read the full report here: ow.ly/V3Qc50TCm5V

In this @IIF CEEMEA Views, we discuss possible spillovers from weakness in global trade on the growth outlook for the Emerging Europe region (#CzechRepublic, #Hungary, #Poland, #Romania, #Türkiye, #Ukraine, and #Russia). Read full report: iif.com/Publications/I…

In this #IIF CEEMEA Views, we share our perspective on how central banks in the CEE-4 (#CzechRepublic , #Hungary, #Poland, and #Romania ) might adjust their policies into 2025 in light of current geopolitical and economic conditions. Full report: iif.com/Publications/I…

@Turkey @Germany @IIF @UgrasUlkuIIF @ecb @EU_Commission @CentralEurope1 @OECD @TheEconomist The @Czech NB will probably reduce interest rate cuts to 25 bps on August 1 after July’s 50 bps reduction, as tight labor market conditions and double-digit nominal wage increases are clouding the inflation outlook for the Czech Republic and @CentralEurope1 @DNewsHungary

@Turkey @Germany @IIF @UgrasUlkuIIF @ecb @EU_Commission @CentralEurope1 @OECD @TheEconomist Tuesday real GDP flash estimates for Hungary and the Czech Republic should, then, gather attention. Continued real wage increases and robust private consumption, suggest a slight pick-up in 2024Q2 growth in Hungary and in the Czech Republic @UgrasUlkuIIF @IIF

@Turkey @Germany @IIF @UgrasUlkuIIF @ecb @EU_Commission Foreign demand for German exports, especially from China, is not picking up at the expected pace, which weighs on manufacturing activity in the Euro Area, @CentralEurope1, and @Turkey @UgrasUlkuIIF @OECD @TheEconomist

There is some pessimism about the German economy’s near-term outlook, which clouds the macro outlook for the CEE region and @Turkey , as @Germany is their main export market @IIF @UgrasUlkuIIF @ecb @EU_Commission

The @ifo_Institut business confidence index for Germany declined to 86.9 in July from 88.8 in June. This was rather an unexpected decline, as many economists were predicting a slight improvement @IIF @OECD @IMFNews @germanyintheeu

'There are three important keywords that shall guide us in the current era of challenges: sovereignty, competitiveness and cooperation' (Deputy Governor, Barnabás Virág)

'There are three main challenges of the Polish economy: energy sector transformation, digital transition and unfavourable demographics.' (Marta Kightley, First Deputy Governor, @nbppl)

Türkiye Bankalar Birliği (TBB) ve Uluslararası Finans Enstitüsü (IIF) iş birliğiyle, 10 Mayıs tarihinde “Türkiye Sürdürülebilir Finans Forumu” düzenlendi. İstanbul Finans Merkezi, Ziraat Bankası Genel Müdürlük Oditoryumunda düzenlenen toplantının açılış konuşmalarını Uluslararası Finans Enstitüsü Başkanı Tim Adams ve TBB Yönetim Kurulu Başkanı Alpaslan Çakar’ın yaptığı, Hazine ve Maliye Bakanı Mehmet Şimşek’in özel oturumla iştirak ettiği Forum’da, sektörün üst düzey konuşmacılarının da katılımıyla sürdürülebilir finans gündemi çerçevesinde çeşitli paneller yapıldı.