@StefanFSchubert That seems not independent of how sanguine people happen to be in its presence
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Vaish
1.4K posts
Vaish
@Vaishsg7
Making the illegible slightly more legible
United States Katılım Temmuz 2019
654 Takip Edilen375 Takipçiler
I think future historians will view islamism as having had much less historical significance than much of the discourse the last few decades has suggested
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@robertwiblin Worth separating causation from selection. People who make reflection their main focus probably have other underlying issues that drive both low output and high introspection.
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Empirically, high levels of inward-focussedness of any type seems to lead to bad outcomes.
Endless introspection, self-discovery, reflecting on whether you're good, smart, happy, or whatever. All bad.
Do something outward-facing and adjust from there.
x.com/Digitalliturgy…
Samuel James@Digitalliturgy
I too am 37. One of the biggest things I’ve discovered is that the path to peace is not intense introspection, it’s activity. One full, productive day results in better emotions than hours of self-exploration
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@StefanFSchubert Marcus Aurelius didn’t raise enough money to count as a great man apparently
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Unlikely
David Senra@davidsenra
Great men of history had little to no introspection. The personality that builds empires is not the same personality that sits around quietly questioning itself. @pmarca and I discuss what we both noticed but no one talks about: David: You don't have any levels of introspection? Marc: Yes, zero. As little as possible. David: Why? Marc: Move forward. Go! I found people who dwell in the past get stuck in the past. It's a real problem and it's a problem at work and it's a problem at home. David: So I've read 400 biographies of history’s greatest entrepreneurs and someone asked me what the most surprising thing I’ve learned from this was [and I answered] they have little or zero introspection. Sam Walton didn't wake up thinking about his internal self. He just woke up and was like: I like building Walmart. I'm going to keep building Walmart. I'm going to make more Walmarts. And he just kept doing it over and over again. Marc: If you go back 400 years ago it never would've occurred to anybody to be introspective. All of the modern conceptions around introspection and therapy, and all the things that kind of result from that are, a kind of a manufacture of the 1910s, 1920s. Great men of history didn't sit around doing this stuff. The individual runs and does all these things and builds things and builds empires and builds companies and builds technology. And then this kind of this kind of guilt based whammy kind of showed up from Europe. A lot of it from Vienna in 1910, 1920s, Freud and all that entire movement. And kind of turned all that inward and basically said, okay, now we need to basically second guess the individual. We need to criticize the individual. The individual needs to self criticize. The individual needs to feel guilt, needs to look backwards, needs to dwell in the past. It never resonated with me.
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@ArtemisConsort @Gena_I_Gorlin Let me change your mind on prediction markets too. reducibleerrors.com/prediction-mar…
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@Gena_I_Gorlin I think prediction markets for events that actually matter are good. Polymarket etc are cool. Sports betting is negative-sum parasitism.
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I am generally techno-optimist and capitalist, but I think builders should show at least a modicum of social responsibility. Sports betting has exactly zero value add and massive downsides, and if you work on it or invest in it you should be ashamed.
Trung Phan@TrungTPhan
The Economist has a great piece on strategy sportsbetting apps use to throttle smart bettors: ▫️Skilled players are “sharps” and given “stake restrictions” if they play too well (bets are capped). ▫️Rest of players called “Square”. ▫️In 2025, 4.3% of active UK accounts had a “stake factor” below the maximum bet allowance of 100%. ▫️Sportsbook will take bets with a profit margin as low as 4.5%. ▫️If they are able to do good “player-profiling” and keep the “sharps” from playing, the profit margin can reach 10-20%. ▫️As important as keeping out “sharps” is hooking “whales”, the deep-pocketed players that are willing to keep playing (and losing) large sums. ▫️Some “whales” are actually “sharps” in disguise, though. They’ll lose a bunch of bets to lull the sportsbook then put down a massive bet when they have an edge. ▫️While there is a risk of a “whale” being a “sharp”, the value of a real “whale” is so high that sportsbook will take the risk ▫️“In March 2024 PointsBet, raised its share of online sports-gambling revenue in New Jersey from 11% to 24% after wooing a single cash-spouting customer away from DraftKings.” (I can confirm that this wasn’t me). ▫️How sportsbook profile players: > Playing on Mobile is a good sign (where majority of people play) > Playing on PCs is a bad sign (it’s easier to compare odds and run models) > E-wallets are a red flag (sportsbooks prefer debit direct deposit that can attach a player to a single account; e-wallet is more anonymized and players can move cash between sportsbook more quickly to shop for the best odds) > Women bettors are a red flag (most bettors are men and “sharps” often use women to place bets) ▫️First wagers are a major tells (typical bettors go after top leagues — NFL, NBA, EPL — and do so near the start of the game). ▫️Popular bets for “squares”: who will win, scoring margins and how star player will perform (also, they love multi-leg parlays). ▫️“Sharps” go after less popular leagues and place bets as soon as odds are published, when they are most mispriced. They also go after less popular bets such as “pts in Q3” or stats from a random player (“Sharps” rarely do parlays and don’t withdrawal winnings often). ▫️One gambling consultant tells The Economist that “By the time a customer places his first bet, [sportsbooks] are 80-90% certain they know the lifetime value of the account.” ▫️”Sportsbooks look at a player’s ‘closing-line value’ — a measure that compares the odds at which he bets with those available right before a match begins. If it is consistently ahead of the market over his first ten wagers, he is highly likely to beat the book in the long run.” ▫️Sportsbook mathematically monitor players and creates a new risk score every 6-8 hours (risk score = estimate of probability that customers will wind up unprofitable). ▫️E-wallet users, women and bets over $100 are flagged. These suspicious bettors are given 30% of maximum bet (and proven sharps only allowed 1%). ▫️High-skilled players will often get a “beard” to bet on their behalf. Most sportsbooks ban this practice but it is widespread. ▫️Safest “beards” are close friends and relatives because you can mostly rely on them to pay out any winnings. The “beards” try to look like degens (playing at 3am, bet non-stop and doing ridiculous parlays) before placing a winning bet. ▫️The most effective strategy for “sharps” is “whale-flipping”. Find a losing gambler, then ask to put a (likely) large winning bet amongst their pool of guaranteed losers. ▫️Once “sharps” max out the people they can use as “beards”, they tap professional networks called “movers”. These “movers” employ a bunch of “mules” who can put down bets on the behalf of the network. Low-end movers charge 10-20% while high-end movers charge 50% of winnings. *** Lots other great details here: economist.com/christmas-spec…
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Hire out of pain. Don't hire because you think you'll need someone soon or maybe sometime later. Wait until you or your team are actually hurting: working weekends, missing family dinners, dropping balls. That pain is the signal that the role is real. I learned this the hard way after watching founders (including myself) hire ahead of need and end up with people in roles that weren't fully formed yet. When you hire out of pain, you know exactly what the job is because you've been doing it yourself. You can evaluate performance because you know what good looks like. And the new hire knows you'll step back in if they fail, because you were just doing it last week.
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Post-wokeness is something the Democrats (and the country) desperately need, so it would be interesting if he's right.
Shadi Hamid@shadihamid
Mamdani is showing Democrats the way beyond wokeness. By neutralizing culturally divisive issues while staying principled on Gaza and affordability, he offers an unlikely model for winning elections. My new essay for @washingtonpost 🧵 wapo.st/49zhufl
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@yrechtman I’m a fan of using market making subsidies to surface relevant info where that is indeed better than forecasting on a cost adjusted basis. But then almost always those use cases don’t materialize because of institutional incentives being misaligned.
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@Vaishsg7 I’m a big fan of PMs in theory and a big hater in practice. Lots of cool theory but none of it works because of insufficient liquidity and the siren song of gambling
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This is not as stupid as it looks.
We're all basically short housing every day in our local markets. Every month we have to cover that short. I'd love to get long in a diversified low-leverage way.
But ideally I'd do it as a city-specific REIT.
Sheel Mohnot@pitdesi
There are real estate polymarkets now You can invest in a city's real estate market with a click
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@cremieuxrecueil @BecomingCritter Gregory Clarke should have used pitbulls to make the straussian case for:
1. Selection effects dominate in the short run
2. But in the long run, culture shapes selection effects
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@BecomingCritter I think the very existence of animals that could only have been bred *in a system of horrific abuse* is a mark of human evil.
To judge gameness for breeding, you had to abuse these dogs.
The dogs themselves are a tragedy.
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@yrechtman I sometimes reply and say things like "would you be open to being my gym buddy?"
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I get 5-10 spam texts per day offering either part time WFH jobs or working capital. Always from random numbers. Nearly always SMS. I report and block each and every one.
How is it possible that neither Verizon nor apple can do anything to stop the deluge.
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@CliffordAsness The abundance & other center left bros also deserve some opprobrium for being all too keen to take the slightest equivocation by him as "evidence of moderation". Happened before the election and it's back with special dose of amnesia.
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Yes, they are communists (not social democrats) and this is what communists do. They have an evil philosophy of death and deprivation that they have convinced a legion of young morons (and some old ones) is moral when it is the exact opposite. And they aren’t kidding.
People who think “the mayor can’t do too much” are being dangerously naive.
Josh Barro@jbarro
A lot of people in Mamdani’s coalition want to move these buildings into government or non-profit hands, but that’s just a means for further subsidy, including by taking them off the property tax rolls.
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@Noahpinion @christopherrufo Was on your side until I saw those screenshots. Cmon just admit you were wrong and move on.
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@christopherrufo I didn't support DEI when it was popular. I didn't lie at all. Some people took a tweet from a thread out of context, and claimed it was about DEI (it was about cancel culture). I was telling the truth then, and I'm telling the truth now too.
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This is like when progressives came up with the word BIPOC ("Black, Indigenous, and People Of Color"). The idea here is that we're all Americans, but some of us are a little more American than others, due to their blood, and that those people should be in charge of the coalition.
Christopher F. Rufo ⚔️@christopherrufo
I’m a believer in the American creed and the principle of assimilation, but it’s self-evidently true that America’s “lineage,” especially the founding generation, is the vital source of our national strength. Yes, those early Americans designed a system that allowed for assimilation by shared creed—one of their highest accomplishments—but it’s foolish to believe that America could be replicated as a set of abstract principles, without actual Americans. The creed itself is the product of a very particular Anglo-American Christian culture, with no equivalents anywhere in the world. The most basic conservative impulse is to have gratitude for our ancestors and humility regarding our inheritance. This notion of pure creedalism is, by contrast, deeply ideological and, as a philosophical matter, leftist.
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@AaronBergman18 Contempt and exaltation are just two end points of the same dimension of status accordance. It's a statement about where scorn vs admiration is more warranted on the current margin. You should be able to grasp this given your EA membership.
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"Teachers unions/nurses/veterans have too much political power/cultural capital" ⇏ "you should treat individual teachers/nurses/veterans with 'more suspicion, scorn, and contempt'"
Nicholas Decker@captgouda24
I don’t take it well when we puff groups of people up beyond what they deserve. Teachers, veterans, and nurses deserve much more suspicion, scorn, and contempt than they currently receive. By contrast, scientists, billionaires, and quant traders deserve so much more respect.
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@AdamMGrant Is this a descriptive statement or a normative one? If the former, it's in some tension with one of your earlier claims.
Either talking over people works or it doesn't.
x.com/AdamMGrant/sta…
Adam Grant@AdamMGrant
Too many mediocre men talk over capable women. Study of problem-solving teams: Men dominate the conversation, taking 50% more turns and saying 69% more than women. Men with low skill speak more than women with high skill. It's long past time to value competence over confidence.
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There will be 2 types of companies in the future.
Those that are great at AI, and those that used to be in business
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