Valentin Aufrand

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Valentin Aufrand

Valentin Aufrand

@ValentinAufrand

In the arena trying stuff CFA & CFTe | Ex @IGcom @DailyFX @FXCM

Paris, France Katılım Ocak 2010
563 Takip Edilen8K Takipçiler
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Valentin Aufrand
Valentin Aufrand@ValentinAufrand·
1/ Je n’ai pas pour habitude de sur-réagir à la géopolitique. Mais aujourd’hui, j’ai l’impression que les marchés pricent très mal le risque actuel au Moyen-Orient. Personne ne sait comment la situation évoluera, mais l’asymétrie me semble défavorable aux actifs risqués.
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First Squawk
First Squawk@FirstSquawk·
U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SAID HE WILL PAUSE ENERGY PLANT STRIKES AGAINST IRAN FOR 10 DAYS UNTIL APRIL 6, FOLLOWING A REQUEST FROM THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT AS TALKS CONTINUE. || HE ADDED THAT NEGOTIATIONS ARE PROGRESSING WELL DESPITE CONFLICTING REPORTS, SIGNALING A TEMPORARY DE-ESCALATION IN THE ONGOING CONFLICT. - TRUTH SOCIAL
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Reuters
Reuters@Reuters·
A South Korean plastic film factory has cut production to 20–30% of capacity due to raw material shortages caused by the Iran war and disruptions in global energy markets reut.rs/4bLYXgV
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Visegrád 24
Visegrád 24@visegrad24·
BREAKING: Ukrainian suicide drones just struck the Russian oil refinery Kirishi in the St Petersburg region. The sky is now glowing red over Kirishi
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Bull et Bear 13
Bull et Bear 13@BulletBear13·
@ValentinAufrand Je suis d'accord, mais y avait quand même un constructeur auto dans la joint venture, les chances d'aller au bout étaient plus élevées. Au passage, très intéressant ton webinaire de stockpicking hier 👍
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Bull et Bear 13
Bull et Bear 13@BulletBear13·
Honda et Sony abandonnent le développement de leur premier modèle de VE. Quel dommage
BFM Business@bfmbusiness

#Sony dévoile sa toute première voiture 🚘 Au CES de Las Vegas, Sony a présenté l'Afeela 1, sa première voiture conçue avec Honda. Un véhicule ultra connecté et marqué par la sensibilité "gaming" du géant japonais. 🎙️@Ju_Bonnet 📹@pierrebcpro

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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
82ND AIRBORNE HEADS TO MIDDLE EAST Fox News has learned that Maj. Gen. Brandon Tegtmeier, commander of the 82nd Airborne Division, and his headquarters staff have been ordered to deploy to the Middle East. The move comes as the Pentagon and White House consider sending the division for possible land operations, including potential missions in Iran such as Kharg Island. The New York Times first reported yesterday that the Pentagon is weighing this deployment.
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Javier Blas
Javier Blas@JavierBlas·
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says the physical oil market is tighter than the financial oil market is reflecting, particularly for refined products. The scarcity, particularly in Asia, is “not fully priced in the oil futures curve,” he says. #CERAWeek
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tylermcclellan
tylermcclellan@tylermacro10·
Are we going to just agree the “straights” are open an move on?
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Valentin Aufrand
Valentin Aufrand@ValentinAufrand·
Iran repeatedly stated last week that it would no longer negotiate with the US, given that the US had taken advantage of the negotiations to attack Iran both this time and in June 2025...
OSINTdefender@sentdefender

U.S. President Donald J. Trump tells Fox Business that Iran wants to make a deal “badly” and that an agreement could be reached within five days or sooner, stating that talks occurred Sunday night involving Special Envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff with the help of Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey.

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Valentin Aufrand
Valentin Aufrand@ValentinAufrand·
It's funny how the markets can sometimes go higher. Make a threat, back down, and then somehow the operators feel like the situation has improved compared to before the threat, even though nothing has actually changed. Iran is still in control of the strait, and this time, it takes two to TACO.
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Dow
Dow@mark_dow·
The fact that Trump made a point of calling CNBC to get out his message on Iran tells you what the target of his statement was. It’s a f*cked up world when the world is more likely to believe Iran than the US president. But that’s where we are.
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Valentin Aufrand
Valentin Aufrand@ValentinAufrand·
Inflation is rising while the unemployment rate is stabilizing. I think the Fed is back to focusing on inflation until the Sahm rule starts to tick close to 0.5.
Valentin Aufrand tweet media
Valentin Aufrand@ValentinAufrand

I second this. Too many concerns about the labor market, IMO. Withholding payrolls are rising just as fast as in 2024 despite ~0 net immigration. OTOH, inflation have remained well above target for +5 years, and the new supply shock makes a return to 2% anytime soon v unlikely.

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Javier Blas
Javier Blas@JavierBlas·
From almost done, followed by close to winding down -- to a 48-hours ultimatum to Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz that the US doesn't use, and in any case, it would be very easy to re-open even by the NATO European cowards...
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Rick Palacios Jr.
Rick Palacios Jr.@RickPalaciosJr·
In less than a month, hope for a decent spring selling season has all but vanished in housing as oil spikes, rates jump, and inflation expectations reset higher. Can’t even get an adjustable-rate mortgage below 6% anymore.
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Valentin Aufrand
Valentin Aufrand@ValentinAufrand·
Michigan inflation expectations and breakeven inflation are back at the forefront and will likely prove decisive for the policy path in the coming months...
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Michael Brown
Michael Brown@MrMBrown·
Putting the recent hawkish repricing into context...this sort of thing isn't normal!
Michael Brown tweet mediaMichael Brown tweet mediaMichael Brown tweet media
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Valentin Aufrand
Valentin Aufrand@ValentinAufrand·
Highest 10y Bund rate since 2011
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Valentin Aufrand
Valentin Aufrand@ValentinAufrand·
I second this. Too many concerns about the labor market, IMO. Withholding payrolls are rising just as fast as in 2024 despite ~0 net immigration. OTOH, inflation have remained well above target for +5 years, and the new supply shock makes a return to 2% anytime soon v unlikely.
Michael R. Strain@MichaelRStrain

@greg_ip @NickTimiraos My theory: The labor market is strong. The economy is strong. Inflationary pressure is broad based due to strong demand. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/ac…

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Keşfet

@BulletBear13 @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano @BillGates @NASA @nikifrancismediavine