Joe Duarte

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Joe Duarte

Joe Duarte

@ValidScience

AZ native, son of immigrants, ex-Navy PhD Social Psychology – dissertation on envy and antisemitism Data science, media reliability, bias in academic research

Arizona Katılım Temmuz 2014
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Joe Duarte
Joe Duarte@ValidScience·
Lioness Season 2 is confusing. A cartel kidnaps a US Congresswoman in the US and is holding her in Mexico, a few miles from the border. We know her location. Obvious, instant Delta or DEVGRU mission, right? No, according to the show we're not allowed to go into Mexico to rescue our elected officials, and doing so would make us hypocrites wrt our position on China and Taiwan... Umm, what? Taylor Sheridan wrote and directed this episode. I thought he was supposed to very good, but this is very confusing. He doesn't understand some basic facts of reality. If someone were to abduct a US Congresswoman, there is no country in which they'd be safe from a rescue attempt. Not a single country on this planet would be off limits to us. Oh hell no. Certainly not Mexico. JFC. Mexico isn't some sacrosanct country which we can never enter under any circumstances. If someone is holding a US Congresswoman there, nosotros venimos con plomo. If anything, Mexico is a super convenient location. And rescuing a US Congresswoman in Mexico is as relevant to our position on Taiwan as that lifeguard in Santa Cruz rescuing the 10-year-old surfer on Saturday. Sheridan's script here just makes no sense at all. Incredibly strange.
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Douglas Carswell🇬🇧🇺🇸
Absolutely staggering that it takes substack - not Cambridge University - to uncover academic misconduct at the university. Institutional rot
Retraction Watch@RetractionWatch

After Jason Arday enlisted Carter-Ruck, one of the United Kingdom’s leading defamation law firms, to send @timeshighered a letter, the publication spiked the story, according to three sources who spoke to Retraction Watch. retractionwatch.com/2026/07/27/cam…

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Drew Holden
Drew Holden@DrewHolden360·
I think this tweet, from a former @nytimes science writer captures it well.
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Drew Holden
Drew Holden@DrewHolden360·
🧵THREAD🧵 Fauci’s lab leak coverup couldn’t have happened without the help of legacy media. Do you remember how far outlets went to claim the lab leak was a conspiracy? I’ve got the screenshots. ⤵️
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Joe Duarte
Joe Duarte@ValidScience·
@wil_da_beast630 The first two are a joke, as is the idea of NYT standards for fact-checking on the same opinion page that published the magic Israeli rape dogs story. Chua would probably be a poor choice as well. The NYT should be written off and stigmatized.
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Joe Duarte
Joe Duarte@ValidScience·
Ben, you have to admit this was a pretty stupid, poorly planned war. What was the point? If we can't even secure the Strait of Hormuz, what was the point of all this? We jacked up gas prices for the whole world, worsened the midterms, depleted our arsenals, and lost some good men, and for what? We were told last year that the B-2 strikes destroyed or disabled Iran's nuclear program. Was that false? Why did we need to launch this war a year later? How are Americans supposed to navigate these claims without any access to the relevant intel?
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Ben Shapiro
Ben Shapiro@benshapiro·
Your contention that the two alternatives are (1) "negotiating with bad people" or (2) "demanding war until every possible enemy is dead" is silly and reductive. Of course. Not every bad actor is bad in the same way; not all negotiations are equal; few victories require total annihilation rather than thorough defeat. The question is how much force is required to achieve America's interest. The answer depends on several factors, including the reliability of Iran's commitments; the credibility of our threat of force; and the amount of pain they can withstand and our willingness to bring that amount of pain to bear. But here's what won't do it: taking the Obama position that the only alternative to "demanding war until every possible enemy is dead" is cutting a truly crappy deal with an overtly dishonest enemy dedicated to destroying America and her allies. But I think you know that. Which is why you went with the reductive silliness.
Sean Davis@seanmdav

The world is a nasty place full of nasty people, just like it always has been, yet actual statesmen understand that peace often requires making deals with icky people, as the U.S. has done for centuries with regimes that did far more damage to the U.S. Passive-aggressively mocking the idea of negotiating with bad people is a rather clunky neocon attempt at demanding war until every possible enemy is dead. It’s as childish as it is stupid and ahistorical.

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Joe Duarte
Joe Duarte@ValidScience·
Arday is an impostor. He doesn't DO ANYTHING. He has no profession in the 300 sense. He doesn't do research, doesn't collect data, doesn't analyze data. All he does is fabricate stories about his life, plagiarize his dissertation, plagiarize his research studies (a very confusing idea I've never encountered), and write opinion pieces about "systemic racism", which doesn't exist against blacks in the West. It's fraud all the way down. He contributes no more to the human knowledge base than the janitors at Cambridge. He has nothing to offer, is not a scholar of any description. It's incredible what Cambridge has become, what all these institutions have become.
Jesse Singal@jessesingal

2/ Jason Arday didn't just plagiarize quotes. He then claimed the quotes came from his own interviews -- so plagiarism plus the fabrication of interviews that never occurred (plagrication?). The journal Social Sciences and Cambridge just... let him do it? It's astonishing.

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Joe Duarte
Joe Duarte@ValidScience·
Focusing on mask filtration mechanics is the Wrong Variable Fallacy. A given level of filtration performance on a mannequin head doesn't mean masks reduce COVID spread in real world use. That's a much different question and the best way to answer it is randomized trials. open.substack.com/pub/validscien…
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Jason Locasale
Jason Locasale@LocasaleLab·
One of the remarkable revelations in Fauci’s diaries is how little he seemed to care about science. He made assertive, authoritative statements about nearly every aspect of the coronavirus while paying little attention to the evidence supporting those claims. He projected an image of authority, and that was sufficient. His title, confidence, and media presence substituted for actually caring about the evidence. Take masking for example. It is a well-defined engineering problem, the kind found in a mechanical engineering curriculum. Plug in the virus-particle size, the size of saliva droplets, surface tension, exit velocities from breathing and coughing, airflow, filtration, and fit, and you can determine whether using a mask makes any sense. Fauci showed no interest in working through any of this. He simply made grandiose, definitive pronouncements while showing no concern for the actual science underneath them.
Victor Davis Hanson@VDHanson

Dr Fauci and Mr. Science The Fauci files reveal not just a sociopathic narcissist, but also a pathological schizophrenic. For years, Fauci was assuring the public of Covid narratives that he either knew were untrue, or knew little about. He posed as a non-partisan, even as he collaborated with the leftwing cable news grandees and liberal columnists to hound his enemies and magnify his godhead. From the virus’s origins and effects of the lockdowns, to the efficacy of the mRNA vaccinations to the always changing 0/1/2 masks wearing protocols, Fauci used his massive government agency, and sycophantic media, to promote his always fluid narratives by punishing enemies and rewarding friends—on the basis of their loyalty to Dr. “I represent science”. He seemed to be obsessed with firing White House Covid advisor Scott Atlas, and demonizing Jay Bhattacharya, Sunetra Gupta and Martin Kulldorff—for the crimes of questioning the Fauci party line. These critics were not radical “let it rip” herd immunologists as the Fauci camp caricatured them, but circumspect, cost-to-benefit doctors and savvy health policy analysts. Their views, if embraced, might have avoided a multibillion-dollar global shutdown that wrecked economies—especially derailing the booming 4th quarter 2019 Trump economy—increased the death toll, destroyed millions of livelihoods, harmed perhaps permanently the education of millions U.S. children, and was hardly based on the “science”. And what exactly were the so-called extremist views of Atlas, Bhattacharya, and others? Healthy children were not at great risk from Covid—but keeping them isolated drained away key resources from the elderly and sick who certainly were vulnerable. And the nationwide school closures had profound negative effects on children and teens as did the lockdowns on the general population. Substance and familial abuse soared, small businesses were ruined, and children’s formative educational years were lost. 24/7 mask wearing was neither practical nor necessary as opposed to their beneficial use by health care workers in close proximities. The experimental mRNA vaccinations may have initially saved lives, but they were not, as billed by Fauci and the pharmaceutical companies, lasting protection from either infectiousness or being infected. And certainly the repeated booster regimens for some could pose serious health risks. Herd immunity was not some crank idea, as the Fauci school libeled these experts, but, along with the initial vaccinations, were time-tested medical realities that would mitigate the toxicity of the pandemic. We have seen a lot of obscene hoaxes recently that changed national events: the loony Jussie Smollett caper; the phony “Steele dossier”; the “51 intelligence authorities” and the Russian-produced Hunter Biden laptop con; and the media fabricated effigy of Joe Biden as “fit as a fiddle”. But Fauci’s effort to attribute the virus to a bat or pangolin publicly, while privately accepting from his own consultants that it likely was birthed in the Wuhan lab’s gain of function research—which he had helped to support via Peter Daszak—and the policies that resulted from that initial lie, proved literally for thousands a matter of life and death.

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Joe Duarte
Joe Duarte@ValidScience·
This was in early 2024. The article has been hijacked for years, full of nonsense about racism and "conspiracy theories" and false claims. Note the nonsensical explanation given for reverting my correction. Wikipedia is a menace and needs to be replaced by Grokipedia, but search results drive usage.
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Richard H. Ebright
Richard H. Ebright@R_H_Ebright·
@ValidScience The timing makes it clear it's Fauci's Team Fraud. Prepping for post-hearing spin by enabling legacy-media stooges to direct their audiences to Wikipedia and be sure they will see only lies there.
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Joe Duarte
Joe Duarte@ValidScience·
Leftists immediately reverted my correction to Wikipedia's opening claim that most scientists believe COVID is natural. They had no citation for it, just random leftist media articles quoting a scientist or two – that's not relevant to a claim that most scientists think something. Wikipedia is epistemically savage, which results in lots of false claims and extremely biased articles. It's an Orwellian firehose for the left. They only cite leftist media while barring non-leftist media, but it's increasingly clear that non-leftist media is more reliable. Thus, their "Reliable Sources" list – for which they have no systematic evidence – is actually a list of unreliable sources. It's a mess.
Joe Duarte tweet media
Hans Mahncke@HansMahncke

Wikipedia has now removed DEFUSE from its article on the origins of Covid. Even by Wikipedia’s grotesquely corrupt standards, that is an extraordinary act of historical vandalism. It's like writing about 9/11 while omitting the planes. (DEFUSE is the 2018 blueprint developed by Peter Daszak and his Wuhan lab collaborators for engineering the exact same kinds of coronavirus features that later appeared in Covid. It is the smokingest of smoking guns.)

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Megan Basham
Megan Basham@megbasham·
I’m sorry this isn’t just the best video clip of the Covid era, this might be the best video clip in all of modern history.
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Joe Duarte
Joe Duarte@ValidScience·
@Docstockk And @sbaroncohen has been willing to sacrifice autistic children to the trans cult, willing to go along with whatever updates to leftist ideology he wakes up to each morning, not daring to resist, interrogate, or poke at it in any way.
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Kathleen Stock
Kathleen Stock@Docstockk·
Remarkable that two of the most prominent defenders of Jason Arday against plagiarism charges, Simon Baron-Cohen and James O'Brien, have previously blurbed Arday's book. Almost as if they are fighting to save their own reputations as well as his.
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Joe Duarte
Joe Duarte@ValidScience·
Senator, these sorts of posts will undermine the hearing. Now I'm worried that you're going to blow it with grandstanding, as has happened repeatedly with GOP lawmakers in critical hearings on DEI, lawfare, etc. Please, please no grandstanding or speech-questions. Don't let Fauci off the hook by giving him four-part questions that he can easily avoid by partly answering only one part. See Congresswoman Stefanik for a good example of focused, short, disciplined questioning that locks the corrupt in a vice.
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Rand Paul
Rand Paul@RandPaul·
What Anthony Fauci looked like every night when he wrote about how great he is in his diary.
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Joe Duarte
Joe Duarte@ValidScience·
I would blame Trump more than anyone else. The chaotic and harmful tariffs, the seemingly randomly timed Iran War that jacked up the whole world's gas prices, all the chaos in his admin with RFK not really being in charge of his department, the WH firing Makary, Hoeg, et al., not backing DOGE, not cutting federal spending, faceplanting on the "Epstein files" nonsense, admin officials lying about the Minnesota shootings within hours (that the male nurse was a "terrorist" intending to kill agents), bizarre threats against the media, ridiculous, needless scandals putting his name on things while he's in office, etc. Those last two things are major self-owns that feed right into the "No Kings" nonsense. His behavior undermines him and makes him a much weaker and less popular President than he could be. That has downstream effects, hurts the GOP and midterms. He doesn't inspire most people, doesn't try to unite the country or reach people. And Vance is driving off Jews and people who care about them. And they're not cleaning out leftist ideology and DEI. When I was at NIH, I built an anti-ideology framework and tried to get all the scientifically invalid, ideologically driven leftist grants terminated, but nothing happened and Jay continued to fund grants giving underage girls testosterone, "antiracist" grants to send minority kids (no whites allowed) to parks in a deranged bid to slow their biological aging, grants on how "microaggressions" make black people smoke marijuana or make Hispanics drink more, etc. There's no apparent supervision or attention on this coming from the WH – it looks like they really are going to go their whole term leaving all these taxpayer subsidies for leftist activists cosplaying as "scientists" intact... DOJ and Ed and are doing some great things, but everything the admin does is undermined by the Dem-controlled media and they wasted the opportunity to do something about and expose the legacy media in their first term or last year. Now it's probably too late, and they don't seem to have the people who could do the job. It would also help if the admin was pristinely honest, but they make enough false claims to undermine a rigorous effort to expose the media.
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Robby Starbuck
Robby Starbuck@robbystarbuck·
Ignore that it’s from Washington Post, this is true and I’ve been warning people in the party for 6 months about it. Some of the hardest core activists I know have told me they’re sitting out as of now. They feel all their efforts have been spit on by a Congress that won’t pass big legislation like the SAVE America Act. The White House can’t do it all by themselves. Many in the base feel lied to about a number of policy issues that should be no brainers for Congress and many of them want more deportations too. If we want to win the midterms; Congress better get busy on the landmark legislation front if they hope to shift the narrative. Dems will be rabid voters this cycle. It’s on Congress whether we keep the majority or blow this election.
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Joe Duarte
Joe Duarte@ValidScience·
That feeling when you realize you're in a coalition with people who actually believe in demon attacks and exorcists, and think that Tucker Carlson became a neo-Nazi because of a haunted forest near his house... Man. This is rough. There's a hard limit to the reach of a movement that takes primitive religions seriously in 2026.
The Jeremy Boreing Show@JBoreingShow

"You need to talk to an exorcist." @roddreher tells the shocking story of getting two exorcists to work with Tucker after he learned of his demonic encounter—and why Tucker refused their help.

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Joe Duarte
Joe Duarte@ValidScience·
Yeah. It needs to be at the top of search results to really take off. It also needs a way to give basic feedback, like that an article is about the wrong person. There's no way to do that. I found one case of father and son scientists with the same name but different middle initials, who each have a Wikipedia article, and Grokipedia screwed up and had one person's bio in the other one's article. I wasn't going to rewrite the article for it – I just wanted to tell it about its mistake.
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Joe Duarte
Joe Duarte@ValidScience·
@jeffreytucker Trump didn't rebel and isn't the kind of President who could. DeSantis has the intellect and credibility to handle something like this.
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Jeffrey A Tucker
Jeffrey A Tucker@jeffreytucker·
Ok, I'm still making my way through but this entry is gigantically important. Trump on April 23 2020 fully realized that he had been hornswoggled by scamsters. This is the moment of the great turning. Also this is completely new.
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Joe Duarte
Joe Duarte@ValidScience·
Good question. We overspend on the military, get a historically small military for a historically large budget. ($1 trillion for FY26) We have 19 creaky B-2 bombers, ≈130 operational F-22 fighters, and our 14 Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines are 29-41 years old. We've never had enough of any of the missiles people are talking about now, like the Patriot and Tomahawk. Or drones. We should get significantly more lethality for much less money.
Jordan Schachtel@JordanSchachtel

Trillion dollar a year military spending and we can’t handle sustained conflict for a few months? Where is all the money going?

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Joe Duarte
Joe Duarte@ValidScience·
You mean last year? Zero deaths this year. Three last year. I'm not sure why people focus on measles. I guess it's because the deaths are easy to prevent (I haven't looked into it, but I assume those three deaths would've been prevented by the vaccines and weren't miscoded, caused by something else). But we're talking about one car accident in a nation of 340 million people. It's hard to justify the media mania. If we were to rank causes of death in children, everything will beat measles. We lose a couple thousand kids a year to prescription pharma, about 100-250 to properly dosed pharma taken as prescribed. Of course, those deaths aren't as easy to prevent (maybe?), so it hits differently. Still, I was struck by that video contrasting how differently Leave It to Beaver and SVU treated measles – the Cleavers were ho-hum and the latter acted like it was a war crime.
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Megan McArdle
Megan McArdle@asymmetricinfo·
@ValidScience Measles cases are now killing people. Other diseases are going to come back as herd immunity falls. Given the lack of sterilizing immunity, I think Yglesias and I were both wrong about vaccine mandates. But we are now well beyond arguing about covid vaccination policy.
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