Wandering Capitalist

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Wandering Capitalist

Wandering Capitalist

@Venturinglist

American, Capitalist. Disturbed by un-American trends like gerrymandering and Super PACs ## Observation~Wisdom~Intuition

GameStop Katılım Kasım 2017
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Wandering Capitalist
Wandering Capitalist@Venturinglist·
“With my family, I’m a communist. With my close friends, I’m a socialist. At the state level of politics, I’m a Democrat. At higher levels, I’m a Republican, and at the federal levels, I’m a Libertarian.” - Nassim Taleb
Wandering Capitalist@Venturinglist

@Aceinmysleeve1 @Plinz @algekalipso “With my family, I’m a communist. With my close friends, I’m a socialist. At the state level of politics, I’m a Democrat. At higher levels, I’m a Republican, and at the federal levels, I’m a Libertarian.” - Nassim Taleb @nntaleb

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Barchart
Barchart@Barchart·
U.S. Banks are currently facing unrealized losses of $306 Billion 🤯👀
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Wandering Capitalist
Wandering Capitalist@Venturinglist·
@paulg Paul, We don’t have a tax problem. We have a WASTE problem. Every Amazon server runs technology funded with tax dollars. We get great returns on accretive public spending. WEALTH CREATION. 👇
Wandering Capitalist@Venturinglist

@joeroganhq @elonmusk PUBLIC SPENDING CREATES PRIVATE WEALTH. Taxes funded innovations that include, The Internet, TCP/IP, nuclear energy and bombs, GPS, DWDM, Cellular wavelengths, Microwaves, Radar, modern Avionics, Semiconductor ASICs. Tax funded research HAS created trillions in wealth. 🤦‍♂️

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Adam Taggart
Adam Taggart@adamtaggart·
In April, the American male labor force participation rate hit its lowest level since records began in the 1940s We are losing one of the bedrock pillars of our society What can be done to reverse this existential trend?
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Stay Predictable
Stay Predictable@staypredictable·
Forms of accretive dilution: 1. Your company loses money or is just not doing well. The share price surges up to a valuation level that is well above what fundamentals can justify at that time. You sell shares at that high price and retain the cash. Cash floor is now increased. Similar effect as buying shares back when the valuation becomes far too low. Financial engineering if done right. 2. You acquire a company through dilution. The acquisition immediately causes your EPS to rise despite the increased share count. You have increased how much earnings power each shareholder gets. Forms of bad dilution: 1. Your company loses money. You dilute at lower and lower prices over time and use the cash to keep the company afloat as the cash is burned into losses. You preserve no cash floor and your debt is still hefty. 2. You acquire a company through dilution and the EPS after the acquisition is now less due to the share count increase. The dilution overpowered the increased earnings per shareholder. If you treat all dilution the same, you are wrong. You need to do the math. $GME $EBAY
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David Andolfatto
David Andolfatto@dandolfa·
I don't think people appreciate how little monetary policy has to do with inflation right now. And those that believe it's all about monetary policy do not appreciate how insane fiscal policy has been the last 5 years.
Rev Cap@rev_cap

I still don’t think people appreciate how insane monetary policy has been the last 5 years Complete break from really all historical patterns of behavior. Greenspan was like 100x more responsible than these guys Not a surprise we have a major inflation Problem

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Capitalist Rob
Capitalist Rob@venturecapitans·
@timstarr2001 @Venturinglist @dandolfa Actually, it’s pretty spot on. Former Fed governor Miran recently covered this. For example, memory prices (supply input) is causing an increase in PCE. Low supply of inputs causes inflation.
Stephen Miran@SteveMiran

Notably, CPI "Software and accessories" includes flashdrives and blank media, which we estimate at about 30% of the category, whereas PCE "Software and accessories" does not. This matters because flash memory has been on an absolute tear due to AI, up some 70% recently.

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Wandering Capitalist
Wandering Capitalist@Venturinglist·
@shacknews How is it dilution if they are authorized but not issued shares? Do you understand dilution at all?
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Shacknews
Shacknews@shacknews·
GameStop (GME) board of directors asks shareholders to vote in favor of up to 400% share dilution dlvr.it/TSgsmX
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Wandering Capitalist
Wandering Capitalist@Venturinglist·
@DrJStrategy @tyillc 🤝Inflation is determined by the inputs to the economy. Labor and Energy. Energy is primarily oil right now. Oil supply tracks inverse to inflation. Furthermore, live under a fractional reserve banking system. The “printing” is done by private bank lending, not the US treasury.
Wandering Capitalist@Venturinglist

“So it’s NOT money printing?” YES and NO. The money printing that goes to the public mostly gets printed as private debt. The vast M2 (90%), is created by PRIVATE BANKS LENDING, NOT THE TREASURY. The fractional reserve banking system is the main source (90%) of “MONEY PRINTING”.

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James E. Thorne
James E. Thorne@DrJStrategy·
Let’s be honest. Warsh at the Fed. Kevin Warsh’s arrival at the Federal Reserve is not a personnel change. It is a regime change attempt inside an institution built to prevent one. A supply-sider now runs a central bank hard-wired for Keynesian demand management, and the machine is already resisting the new code. The next mistake is visible in plain sight. Keynesians on Wall Street and inside the Fed are treating a supply shock as if it were a demand boom and calling for tighter money. This is dogma masquerading as seriousness. A chokepoint in the Strait of Hormuz, a jump in energy prices, and a cost shock rolling through transport, food, and manufacturing are not evidence of overheated demand. They are evidence of a damaged supply side. Monetary policy cannot reopen a shipping lane. It cannot pump more oil. It cannot repeal geopolitics. It can only crush demand somewhere else, usually with a lag, and usually in the most interest-rate-sensitive corners of the economy first, housing, commercial real estate, capital spending, and durables. Those sectors did not close the Strait. They are simply first in line to pay for the Fed’s intellectual mistakes. That is the Keynesian reflex in its purest form. Every price spike becomes “inflation.” Every inflation scare requires a rate move. Every rate move is advertised as proof of resolve. It is nonsense. A change in relative prices caused by a supply shock is not the same thing as an inflationary spiral. Pretending otherwise is how central banks turn an external shock into a domestic recession. Machiavelli explained why change is so hard. The innovator makes enemies of everyone who did well under the old order and wins only lukewarm defenders among those who might benefit from the new. Christensen gave the same warning in corporate language. Incumbent institutions kill disruptive change because their processes, incentives, and prestige are built around the existing model. That is the real problem Warsh faces. The resistance is not incidental. It is structural. The test for Warsh is not whether he can sound tough on television. It is whether he can resist the Wall Street catechism that every supply shock must be met with tighter money. If he hikes rates into a supply-driven price spike to prove his anti-inflation credentials, he will not have broken with the Keynesian regime. He will have submitted to it. This is not the 1970s. Expectations are not unanchored, and the productive economy is already scarred by years of policy excess, fiscal decadence, and institutional bias. The hope is that Warsh understands the difference between inflation and a supply shock, ignores the Keynesian pundits, and refuses to compound one policy error with another.
The Wall Street Journal@WSJ

Kevin Warsh is to be sworn in as Fed chair on Friday, and some investors say the central bank’s next move could be a rate hike—not the cut he was hired to deliver on.wsj.com/3Phncg3

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Wandering Capitalist
Wandering Capitalist@Venturinglist·
@timstarr2001 @dandolfa Inflation is determined by the inputs to the economy. Labor and Energy. Energy is primarily oil right now. Oil supply tracks inverse to inflation. Furthermore, live under a fractional reserve banking system. The “printing” is done by private bank lending, not the US treasury.
Wandering Capitalist@Venturinglist

“So it’s NOT money printing?” YES and NO. The money printing that goes to the public mostly gets printed as private debt. The vast M2 (90%), is created by PRIVATE BANKS LENDING, NOT THE TREASURY. The fractional reserve banking system is the main source (90%) of “MONEY PRINTING”.

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Tim Starr
Tim Starr@timstarr2001·
@dandolfa Yes, but it still affects money supply size, therefore counts as "monetary policy."
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Wandering Capitalist
Wandering Capitalist@Venturinglist·
$GME he’s been quitting #GME for many years now.
Wandering Capitalist tweet media
SmartMoneyFlow@modeh5

Hey @ryancohen please please please I hate to go from fk market makers, fk hedge funds, fk short sellers TO fk RC and fk RK 😅 $GME $GME $GME $GME $GME $GME ✊✊✊✊✊✊✊✊✊✊✊✊✊

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Financhle
Financhle@Financhle·
This is pure fantasy lol. eBay has ~444m outstanding shares with 90%+ locked up by big institutions (Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street) and those passive funds don’t dump cheap. Gamestop’s hypothetical ~6.5% stake is all long-dated options and not real voting shares yet. To get real control they’d need to buy hundreds of millions of shares and heavy buying would spike the price anyway. eBay can also just slap on a poison pill at 10-15% ownership and Delaware law backs them up. They already rejected GME’s $125/share offer. Gradual buying might apply pressure but it won’t quietly hand over control the math doesn’t work.
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Wandering Capitalist
Wandering Capitalist@Venturinglist·
$GME …so, institutions have been adding. Insiders have been adding. Shares have to come from somewhere. That only leaves retail, yes? 😭 -We are the problem?- I’m AMAZED how retail has sold for 64 straight months. Seems, we have billions of shares in giant pockets to sell.🤔
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